Pakistan’s Nobel Prize nominee and war in Middle East

• Israel’s government and military – in the wake of killing around 55,000 unarmed Gazans with impunity since October 2023 - felt they had a capacity to deal with  Iran on its own

On 21 June 2025, Pakistan quite unexpectedly nominated US President Donald Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. The announcement according to the ‘Dawn’ newspaper caught ordinary Pakistanis by surprise. Trump’s nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize has come in the midst of the ongoing slaughter of innocents in Palestine by Israel which is enabled by theTrump government’s supply of arms to the genocidal Israeli regime. 
A day after Pakistan nominated the US leader for the prestigious Nobel Peace prize,Trump dragged the US into another dangerous war in the Middle East, bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. The present US regime together with its Israeli ally have long accused Iran of attempting to develop nuclear weapons –a charge Iran has vehemently denied. 
Trump’s reason for the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities was that the country was on the cusp of producing nuclear weapons. The reality is that the US is the only country in the world to have nuclear bombed civilian targets. At the same time, Israel is the only country in the Middle East (ME) which possess nuclear weapons and does not permit the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its nuclear sites.
The UN atomic energy watchdog – the IAEA - which inspects Iran’s nuclear facilities has stated that Iran does not have a capacity to develop nuclear weapons. The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)-the American intelligence gathering arm - too, denied Iran has a capacity to develop nuclear weapons in the near future. The day after Trump bombed Iran, the head of CIA did an about turn claiming Iran could build nuclear bombs within months!
At this point Iran has suddenly found itself isolated by its allies.The US is actively supporting Israel and has bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran’s allies Russia and China have limited their support to Iran to words.Neither country has taken concrete steps to support Iran. 
India which received considerable support from Iran especially when the Kashmir issue was taken up at the UNHCR has remained silent. Pakistan which recently threatened to bomb Israel for attacking Iran has now nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Only Yemen’s Houthis have openly declared they would attack Red Sea shipping after the US attacked Iranian nuclear sites. The group asserted it would also hit US ships in the Red Sea and warned of an imminent response.
Israel’s government and military – in the wake of killing around 55,000 unarmed Gazans with impunity since October 2023 - felt they had a capacity to deal with  Iran on its own. The entry of the US into the conflict reveals Israel does not have a capacity to militarily defeat Iran on its own. 
To save itself from humiliation after its ill-conceived attack on Iran, Israel now needs active US involvement,  and to spare Israeli blushes,  the US was lured into Israel’s aggressive politics in the ME. However, the combination of Israel and the US is a game changer as per relations between Iran and Israel.
The question now is how Iran will respond to the US sneak attack on its territory which amounts to a terrorist attack. Last week Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to hit back at the US if it  entered the war.But Iran does not have the capacity to take on the US in a full-scale battle.
After the US attack, Iran retaliated with another attack on Israel with no response from Israel’s backer the US. Trump is still talking of getting Iran to talk peace and taking his deal. The Israeli leader Netanyahu does not want a peace deal. There is therefore a gap between Trump and his Israeli ally Netanyahu.
Iran will possibly claim minimal damage from the US attacks to avoid coming into direct conflict with the US. On the other hand,  if Iran offers only a token response, Israel’s leadership will try to pressure the White House that the Iranian regime is weak enough to force regime change, the toppling of the Islamic regime with a convenient replacement is possible. 
This is something Trump, at least for now, remains instinctively opposed to. Whether Trump is willing to play that game is unclear as his demand is for Iran to surrender and accept his terms.
On the other hand,  Iran could use its proxies to hit US bases in the Middle East where around 40,000 US troops are based. If this happens and body bags of troops begin to flow into the US, the US will not be able to claim they are being attacked by terrorists funded by Iran, as it was the US itself which initiated a terrorist attack on Iran.
Such an eventuality will create problems for the US leader not only among ordinary Americans who are demanding Israel stops it genocide in Palestine, but also in Congress and the House of Representatives where Senators are already claiming Trump overstepped his power by attacking Iran without Congressional approval.
Candappa is the former International News Editor  of the Daily Mirror