Sri Lanka’s emissions growth outpaces regional peers in 2024

• Power sector drives surge

By Nishel Fernando

While Sri Lanka maintains the cleanest economic footprint in South Asia in terms of carbon intensity, its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew at a faster rate than its major regional peers in 2024, according to new data released by the European Commission.

The ‘GHG Emissions of All World Countries 2025’ report, released by the Joint Research Centre, reveals that Sri Lanka’s total emissions surged by 6 percent year-on-year in 2024 to reach 37.17 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. This growth rate notably outpaced that of the region’s largest economies, with India recording a 4 percent increase, Bangladesh growing by 2 percent, and Pakistan recording just a 1 percent rise.

This sharp uptick suggests that as Sri Lanka’s economy stabilises, its reliance on carbon-heavy sectors is driving emissions up more aggressively than in neighbouring nations, where growth has been somewhat more decoupled from immediate emissions spikes.

The report identifies the power generation sector as the primary engine behind Sri Lanka’s 2024 emissions spike. Emissions from the power industry grew by a significant 15 percent compared to 2023. This double-digit growth highlights a continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation during the recovery period. Long-term data from the report paints a stark picture of this dependency, showing that emissions from the power industry have expanded by over 300 percent since 1990.

Transport followed as the second-largest driver, recording a 5 percent increase in emissions in 2024. Similar to the power sector, transport emissions have also grown by more than 300 percent over the last three decades, reflecting the rapid expansion of the country’s vehicle fleet and a lack of significant shifts toward mass transit or electrification.

Beyond the two primary drivers, indicators of broader industrial activity also showed an upward trend. The Industrial Combustion and Processes sector saw emissions rise by 4 percent year-on-year, while the Fuel Exploitation sector recorded a 10 percent increase, albeit from a lower base. The Buildings sector contributed a 3 percent rise, while Agriculture saw a modest 2 percent increase. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) remains the dominant pollutant in the country’s mix, accounting for 62.8 percent of total emissions, followed by Methane (29.9 percent) and Nitrous Oxide (5.8 percent).

Despite the rapid growth rate in 2024, Sri Lanka’s absolute emissions remain a fraction of its neighbours. India reported 4,371.2 Mt CO2eq, while Pakistan and Bangladesh reported 525.9 Mt and 220.8 Mt respectively. Sri Lanka’s per capita emissions stood at 1.74 tonnes, placing it in the middle of the regional pack—lower than India (3.04 tonnes) and Pakistan (2.36 tonnes), but higher than Bangladesh (1.25 tonnes).

Crucially for investors focusing on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria, Sri Lanka retains a significant competitive advantage in emissions intensity. The country generates just 0.123 tonnes of CO2 equivalent for every US$1,000 of GDP (PPP) generated.

This figure is significantly lower than the regional heavyweight, India, which records an intensity of 0.307 tonnes, and roughly one-third the intensity of Pakistan at 0.381 tonnes. Even Bangladesh, with its export-oriented industrial base, has a higher intensity at 0.150 tonnes. This indicates that while Sri Lanka’s emissions are rising, its economy remains comparatively “cleaner” per unit of economic output than its South Asian competitors.