Sri Lanka braces for El Niño impacts due to weather volatility warnings

By Charithya Kumarasiri

Colombo, July 6 (Daily Mirror) - Sri Lanka is preparing for significant weather fluctuations in the coming months as a rapidly developing El Niño is expected to reduce rainfall and raise temperatures in the short term, while potentially bringing above-normal rainfall later in the year, officials said at a government media briefing held by the Department of Government Information.

Addressing the briefing, Environmental Minister Dhammika Patabandi said a special committee appointed on June 22 has been tasked with coordinating national preparedness for the anticipated impacts of El Niño. The committee will implement short-, medium- and long-term measures focused on food security, water management, and energy security.

“We have brought together all relevant stakeholders to coordinate these efforts. Public awareness will also play a key role in ensuring the country is prepared,” the Minister said.

Director General of the Department of Meteorology Ajith Wijemannage explained that El Niño is a global climate phenomenon rather than a localized drought event.

“El Niño is not a mere drought. It affects the entire world and is not limited to a single region,” he said, noting that the phenomenon typically lasts nine months to a year and impacts rainfall and temperature patterns differently across regions.

He said Sri Lanka, currently experiencing the South-West monsoon, is likely to see significantly reduced rainfall in the remaining monsoon months, along with rising temperatures. While July and August are usually dry, the influence of El Niño is expected to further suppress rainfall during this period.

However, he said that rainfall is likely to return towards late September, with a possibility of earlier onset depending on wind patterns over the Pacific region near the Philippines and Malaysia. He also cautioned that forecasts indicate the possibility of an extremely strong El Niño, which could extend below-normal rainfall conditions until April next year, though it remains too early for definitive predictions.

Wijemannage added that historically, Sri Lanka has experienced heavier-than-normal rainfall in October and November during strong El Niño years such as 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16, a pattern that could repeat this year.

He further said that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has identified the current event as rapidly developing, and that if the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains positive, rainfall in October–November could extend into December.

Director General of Irrigation Eng. Dr. Kithsiri Waligepolage said reservoir storage across the country currently stands at around 50 percent capacity, adding that the expected rainfall reduction in July and August would not create major concerns as inflows are typically low during this period.

Looking ahead to the Maha cultivation season beginning in October, he said anticipated rains in October and November would be beneficial for agriculture. He confirmed that drinking water availability remains stable, although some decline has been observed in parts of the Eastern Province.

He further said that reservoirs under the Irrigation Department are primarily used for agriculture and drinking water supply, with only limited allocations for hydropower generation.

Meanwhile, Director (Water Management Secretariat) of the Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka Eng. Nilantha Dhanapala said national reservoir storage currently stands at around 65 percent, placing Sri Lanka in a stronger position compared to the 2015–16 El Niño period.

He said hydropower reservoirs are at 60 percent capacity, mini-hydropower at 68 percent, Mahaweli-managed reservoirs at 71 percent, and Irrigation Department reservoirs at 62 percent.

Regionally, he said that reservoirs from Kotmale to Anuradhapura are at 74 percent capacity, the Victoria–Maduru Oya system at 58 percent, Moragahakanda and Walawe Basin at 68 percent, and the Kelani Basin including Castlereigh and Maussakelle at 74 percent.

Based on current storage levels, he said the country can support cultivation of around 860,000 hectares during the upcoming Maha season. He also highlighted the Mahaweli system’s ability to transfer water from wet to dry zones as a key advantage during dry conditions, urging that Maha cultivation begin on time in October to maximize benefits of expected rains.

On power generation, he noted that hydropower contributes 25–30 percent of electricity supply. While no reduction in generation releases has been made so far, the Water Management Secretariat has requested the Ceylon Electricity Board to minimize reservoir usage for power generation during the El Niño period to protect agricultural and drinking water needs.

The briefing also included participation from Director General of the Disaster Management Centre Major General (Retired) Sampath Kotuwegoda and General Manager of the National Water Supply and Drainage Board T. Bharathidasan.