- Mahinda Rajapaksa has been claiming that the SLPP has not decided on its Presidential candidate
- Both genuine aspirations, as well as mere opportunism, could be inferred as the driving force behind the Muslims’ interest in Rajapaksas after the LG polls
- There is a possibility of Rajapaksa’s winning over Indian Tamils and Christians
lthough Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa who is also the de-facto leader of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) has been claiming that the SLPP has not decided on its Presidential candidate, many other political parties and media seem to have already fielded former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa as SLPP candidate. And interestingly Gotabaya Rajapaksa himself is seen preparing for the fray.
It is not clear as to why the former President has been denying that Gotabaya is going to contest the Presidential election on behalf of the SLPP when the latter said on his return from the United States that the initial steps to renounce his US citizenship were successful. Gotabaya did not have any reason to forsake his US citizenship unless he was going to contest for the topmost post of the country, as the rumours have it. And it is a well-known fact that the gathering of a large crowd at the Katunayake airport on his arrival from the US was also preplanned.
Despite the Opposition Leader denying the rumours, the media and the politicians of the SLPP and its opponents obsessed with Gotabaya’s candidacy in the light of the notion that Rajapaksas wouldn’t give up the position to any other person in the SLPP and Gotabaya has been preparing for the big post for the past one year. Politicians such as New Left Front leader Vasudeva Nanayakkara who opposed Gotabaya’s candidacy earlier have even started negotiations with him. 
Whoever the SLPP candidate at the forthcoming Presidential election might be, success would be a real challenge for the party in spite of it having won more than 230 out of 340 councils at the local government elections held on February 10, last year. Contrary to the fact that the SLPP won 67 per cent of the councils at that election, the party was not able to obtain 50 percent votes, the mandatory percentage for the winner at a Presidential election.
In fact, the SLPP had received only 4,941,952 votes which constituted 44.65 percent of total valid votes. Despite the party having managed to increase its vote bank by about 200,000 votes since the 2015 Parliamentary election, they were yet to get the 5.8 million votes they had received at the last Presidential election. The fact remains that even with those 5.8 million votes Mahinda Rajapaksa was defeated at that election.
One can argue that the forces against the SLPP would not get together at the next Presidential election, as the anti-Rajapaksa groups did in 2015. Yet, what matters is the percentage. SLPP might come first at the race, but would it gain the 50 percent and one vote that is required for a candidate to win the Presidential election? That is where people pushed to assess the relationship between the minority communities and Rajapaksas in general and Gotabaya in particular.
The United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) led by President Rajapaksa after the 2010 Presidential and Parliamentary elections was of the opinion that they can win any future election without the support of the minorities. The reason was that the party was endowed with a near two-thirds majority in Parliament at that Parliamentary election, as those two elections were held amidst a euphoria over the war victory. Ministers of the Rajapaksa government then challengingly said that the era of auctioning of vote banks by the minority leaders had come to an end.
"It is not clear as to why the former President has been denying that Gotabaya is going to contest the Presidential election on behalf of the SLPP"
However, with the results of the 2015 Presidential election, they realized that they were wrong. Mahinda Rajapaksa after a huge election campaign compared to that of his main rival, opposition’s common candidate Maithripala Sirisena, lost the election.
The former President himself attributed his defeat to the lack of support by the Muslims several times. Though he had not admitted this fact before the Sinhalese he had done so before other audiences. For instance, he told this to his Muslim loyalists at a meeting with them at his office in October 2016 and during an interview with Japan Times when he visited Japan in 2016. He attributed the lack of support by Muslims to a foreign conspiracy.
Last year Mahinda Rajapaksa and Gotabaya Rajapaksa attended several Ifthar (breakfast) functions during the Muslims’ holy month of Ramadhan where they assured the safety and security of Muslims in a future government formed by them. On the part of Rajapaksas, the smoothing factor in these events was that they were invited for some of them organised by Muslim organizations.
Gotabaya Rajapaksa attended an Ifthar event held in June last year in Beruwala, ironically one of three adjacent areas that came under attack by the extremist groups in June 2013, during his tenure as Defence Secretary, with the participation of a large crowd. Rajapaksa was awarded a colourful welcome before he made an inspiring speech at the event. It was no doubt that he was given preference over his brother in such events in the light of the SLPP’s achievements at the last year’s local government polls and his preparations for the
Presidential race.
Both genuine aspirations, as well as mere opportunism, could be inferred as the driving force behind the Muslims’ interest in Rajapaksas after the LG polls. There are leaders of Muslim organizations who are seriously concerned about the safety and security of their community and they feel the necessity of dialogue and interaction with the possible future leaders of the country. Also, it is not a naysay that there may be people who attempt to develop a rapport with the possible future rulers, with the sole purpose of gaining political or economic mileage, using the craving of the Rajapaksas to win the hearts and minds of minorities and the fear in Muslims about a comeback by the Rajapaksas.
" It must be recalled that it was the ordinary Muslims that dissociated themselves from the Rajapaksa regime before their leaders did so, after the unpleasant happenings "
There may also be another group who are frustrated with the government due to its inaction in general and particularly owing to its lethargic attitude during last year’s anti-Muslim riots in Ampara and Kandy Districts. They put both the previous and the current regimes in one basket and look forward to a rapport with the possible future leaders.
Nevertheless, it must be recalled that it was the ordinary Muslims that dissociated themselves from the Rajapaksa regime before their leaders did so, after the unpleasant happenings during that regime. Hence, Rajapaksas must develop a mechanism to address the ordinary people, not necessarily the leaders, in a convincing manner, if they are serious about lasting support from the Muslims.
As far as the Tamil voters are concerned, they are manipulated largely by the leaders and the media. The influence has been such that they who were frustrated over the defeat of the LTTE preferred the military leadership that spearheaded the military campaign against the Tamil rebels over the political leadership, at the 2010 Presidential election. However, there is a possibility of Rajapaksa’s winning over the Tamils of Indian origin and the Christians.
