The apparent rush to pledge allegiance to the Tamil population in the North brings three very important points to the fore .The first is the undeniable fact that runs contrary to all propaganda. While there is absolutely no doubt about the heavy civilian toll in the offensive by the Sri Lankan armed and air forces and the LTTE retaliation in the North whether  there is a deliberate and sustained effort to obliterate the minority Tamils  needs to be examined pragmatically.

Senior minister and APRC Chairman Prof. Tissa Vitharana has reiterated the intention of the Sri Lankan government to provide safe passage out of the conflict zone to all persons fleeing from there. Civilians fleeing from the conflict zone in the North have the choice of either moving to these safety havens provided by the Sri Lankan government and if they lack confidence in the Sri Lankan government of ensuring of their safety there, their obvious choice would be across the waters to the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, which has always been an preferred haven for them throughout this conflict. Statistics available with the Organisation for Eelam Refugee Rehabilitation (OfERR), indicate that there were large arrivals of refugees across the waters from May to October 2006, almost 2000 persons per month with over 5000 of them arriving in August 2006 .In 2008, these arrivals were an average of 200 per month with the highest number in the month of May, about 500 persons..  There have been earlier reports of the LTTE preventing the civilian population from leaving during intense fighting in the East. The apparent question is the Tamil civilian population caught in the conflict are whose victims? It is indeed distressing that a term like genocide which carries with it the most abhorrent gruesome infliction on humanity is used loosely by the LTTE to garner support for its activities and is bandied about loosely by some sections of the media and the rabble rousers in Tamil Nadu. Undoubtedly there has been constant clarification that the sympathy is for the suffering Tamil civilian population in the North and not the LTTE per se. But it is the LTTE that is still in control in that area and any cessation of hostilities will be a deemed a triumph for the organisation. Whether the LTTE really does still fight for the aspirations of the Tamils is up for inspection. The LTTE has systematically decimated all the moderate voices in Sri Lanka stymieing any possibility of reaching a peaceful solution. It is clear that there was never any intention to work towards any solution for the betterment of the Tamil people in Sri Lanka as it has never used any of the advantages that it held at different periods of time to negotiate - negotiating was not on its agenda. Driven by an insatiable desire for a separate Eelam state, the LTTE ensured that all other Tamil leaders were systematically decimated by various methods to constantly project itself as the sole upholder of the Tamil cause.  Losing international support and sympathy the LTTE, with   its dwindling manpower is now drumming up partisan feelings in Tamil Nadu playing the card of Tamil chauvinism.

The other issue is the one that is pushed farthest and obviously has no relevance to the marching mob. To expect one sovereign nation to reign in another sovereign nation is unacceptable. Grave concerns can be expressed about violations of rules of engagement, worsening humanitarian conditions and gross infringement of human rights by any member of the international community on events in another State. However, no sovereign nation will allow any other nation to impose upon it any proposition which will thwart any of its strategy against forces which threaten its sovereignty and national integrity. Therefore, India has persistently sustained its stand that any solution for the ethnic question in Sri Lanka has to be found within the united structure of the nation. Seeking to divert  this  equitable  policy maintained by India , by political pressure exerted by clamouring in  Tamil Nadu in an attempt  to force the Indian government to prescribe the methodology to be followed by the Sri Lankan government does not bode well for  regional relations. Foreign policy of nations are driven by placing self interest of the nation uppermost .Therefore , call for any action that places India in a dilemma  and leads to destabilisation of the political establishment  within India  can be  construed as an action against the sovereignty and national integrity of India.

Any further prescription by the Indian government will be viewed as tacit support for the LTTE and will negate the good bilateral relations between the two countries. The role that is deemed worthy of India is, when the need eventually arises, to play a pro active part in the restoration of the economic and social conditions in the North. Basic infrastructures for economic growth of the region will have to be revived and educational establishments, medical facilities and other amenities rebuilt. It is here that India can play a major role and not in the capacity that some elements are now urging the Indian government.

The final issue is the status of minority in Sri Lanka and whether Tamil interests will be safeguarded eventually. Despite LTTE's pronouncements of a Sinhala backlash after its destruction and its projection that it is the single power keeping the majority Sinhala government at bay, there is a different scenario being observed after the liberation of the East. Minorities in any country (including our own) tend to be insecure because of their statistical disadvantage and real or perceived notions of marginalisation.  However, to use the past events to abrogate all attempts to find a lasting solution is the ploy of the LTTE to ensure its own existence. That there have been some statements coming out of the Sri Lankan establishments that the minority cannot use their status to gain undue advantage has been read as a threat to the existence of the minority. However, a demand by any minority within a sovereign nation under the guise of self determination for a separate homeland cannot be treated lightly.

 (Dr. Geeta Madhavan is an analyst working in areas related to international security and Terrorism)