The End of Kyoto: What next?

The only significant milestone in the 20 years-long UN Climate Change negotiations was the Kyoto Protocol (KP) signed in 1997. The first commitment period of the KP for Green House Emissions reduction is coming to an end by the end of 2012 (next year). The steps relating to the post Kyoto commitment period, need to be discussed and finalized at the upcoming United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - 17th Conference of Parties (UNFCCC - COP 17) being held from 27th Nov. to 9th December 2011 in Durban, South Africa.  The Sri Lankan delegation for this UN conference will be led by Anura Priyadarshana Yapa - Minister of Environmental Affairs, Patali Champika Ranawaka - Minister of Power & Energy and Mahinda Amaraweera - Minister of Disaster Management.

The major distinction between the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention is that while the Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the protocol commits them to do so. Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity (their historical responsibility), the protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities".

The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol was that it set binding targets for 37 industrialized countries (also known as Annex 1 parties) for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The percentage of emissions of Annex I Parties is 63.7% of the total global emissions. The percentage reduction of the Kyoto binding targets is an average of - 5% against 1990 levels of those countries. This target is to be achieved during 2008-2012 period. The Protocol was ratified and entered into force only in February 2005 with not less than 55 countries including Annex I countries which accounted in total for at least 55 % of the total carbon dioxide emissions.

Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offered them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms. The Kyoto mechanisms were: Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market", Clean development mechanism (CDM), and Joint implementation (JI). Out of the 37 industrialized countries the United States of America, the biggest carbon emitter in the world, refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. As a result the USA has become the major culprit in the world carrying the world towards climate catastrophe. 
By 2009, the Annex I countries which signed the Kyoto Protocol managed to reduce their carbon emissions level by -15% against their 1990 levels. On the other hand, the main carbon emitter - the USA - which was the Annex I country which did not sign the protocol increased its emissions by +7% in 2009 against its 1990 level.

Under protocol the US was supposed to reduce its carbon emissions by -7% during the period from 2008-2012. The resultant average emissions reductions made by all Annex I countries including US was +5% in 2009 against their 1990 level. Does this indicate that the Annex I countries are on target to avoid climate catastrophe despite the hindrances created by the USA? Unfortunately the answer is no.
So what is going to happen after the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period which terminates at the end of 2012? The Bali Action Plan established an Ad Hoc Working Group on further Commitments for Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol. The working group should have aim to complete its work and have its results adopted by the UNFCCC in time to ensure that there is no gap between the first and second commitment periods. After five and a half years of negotiations the working group reflected only on country positions and their concerns, but did not resolve them, most notably, the central issue of the second commitment period. The negotiations have reached a dead-end and further progress is not possible without clarity on overarching political decisions.

The developed countries should have had a higher level of commitment and political will to achieve mitigation targets and need to ensure the continuation of climate related market-based mechanisms, especially the clean development mechanism. However reaching consensus for a second commitment period by the beginning of 2013 does not appear achievable and smooth continuity of the Kyoto Protocol beyond the end of 2012 is an unlikely event.

Some developed countries have already declared that they will not take mitigation commitments under the Kyoto Protocol in a second commitment period. The negative approach of USA and the never ending carbon emissions growth in the developing world which increased its carbon emissions by 130% in 2009 against its 1990 levels has led the Annex I countries to this unfortunate non-binding situation.  The Kyoto Protocol, in its current form, is out of date. Delegates from nearly 200 countries meet in Durban South Africa from November 28th onwards for major climate talks. However these talks will deliver neither an extension of the Kyoto commitment period with updated binding targets nor a second commitment period nor a new mechanism to mitigate climate change. It is likely that the existing Kyoto targets for the 2008-12 period may be merely extended for a couple of years. Kyoto can still survive, only for regular reporting of emissions, market mechanisms that allow emissions trading and compliance. Many of the provisions can still function without new targets.

The U.N.-led climate talks wanted an agreement from all big polluting nations on stronger emissions curbs amidst soaring greenhouse gas emissions and a string of weather disasters across the globe. Some countries now say a new deal will not be in place until after 2020. The most likely outcome would be only a modest step toward a broader deal to cut greenhouse gas pollution to fight climate change.

Scientists say global pledges to curb carbon pollution won't prevent the planet heating up beyond two degrees Celsius, a threshold scientists say risks wilder weather, crop failures, melting ice caps and major floods. This will increase the stress on the poor and they will be struggling for survival under catastrophic climatic conditions in the near future. Man-made climate change results in 2 million premature deaths worldwide every year and threatens water and food security - especially among those ‘bottom 3 billion’. A sustainable future based on the continued extraction of coal, oil and gas in the ‘business-as-usual mode’ will not be possible because of both resource depletion and environmental damages.  Evidently, these are not great problems for decision makers and power-brokers around the planet. They are happy to maintain the existing status-quo for self-gain alone and as such, the world after 20 years of never ending talk fests has shamed itself by literally paying only lip-service to a globe threatening crisis.