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While it is arguable that India was genuinely concerned about human rights issues in Sri Lanka and factored these concerns into its decision on the US-sponsored resolution on Sri Lanka in Geneva a few weeks ago, it is also arguable that Delhi’s position was also influenced by domestic realities. The run up to the vote saw Tamil Nadu politicians snapping incessantly at Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s feet, to put it mildly.
In India, like in any other country, politicians have to do what is politically expedient. The arithmetic of electoral politics often brushes aside ethics, truth, the prerogatives of good relations with neighbours and even the dangers of antagonising neighbours to the point where other friends are sought out, in this case China.
It seems now that nothing Singh does will gain him respect from Tamil Nadu. This is because the two protagonists in the Southern state, Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi are in a one-upmanship game that can never end. Both have to submit demands to Delhi and both have to keep upping the ante. Even if Delhi were to declare war on Sri Lanka, the two may very well fault Delhi for not doing it right. If Delhi annexed Sri Lanka, they might argue over whether or not Sri Lanka should be part of Tamil Nadu or a separate state (or multiple states) of the Indian Union.
The problem, however, is that for now these two can only demand. Tamil Nadu cannot declare war on Sri Lanka. They can at best covertly or overtly organise or support violence against Sri Lankans visiting Tamil Nadu. Having whipped up righteous anger, they cannot stop it from bleeding into hatred. At some point when Sri Lankans stop visiting that state, hatred will need a target. For now it would be Delhi, Singh and the Congress Party, but when successive governments fail to deliver ransom and when ‘Eelam in Sri Lanka’ continues to be a pipe dream, frustrations will seek different targets and action will take different forms.
Already, students, actors and others have taken the issue off the hands of politicians. One is reminded how Appapillai Amirthalingam’s and the TULF’s war cries were picked up by the likes of Prabhakaran and others and what that did to Amirthalingam, the TULF and indeed and unfortunately the ordinary Tamil civilians.
It is only a matter of time that extremists take over from moderates, the hot-blooded contemplate an armed struggle and the larger Tamil Nadu thinks of separation. Delhi would by then regret that it mollycoddled a monster and might need Sri Lanka much more than Sri Lanka needs Delhi.
The Tamil Nationalist Angst that Delhi has ignored and helped ship off to Sri Lanka is therefore set to erupt in Delhi’s face, some might argue.