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As Sri Lanka is roughly a month away from presenting its budget for 2022, a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said it doesn’t have to be a crisis programme, instead it should focus on growth, with a medium-term path towards fiscal deficit reduction and debt sustainability, with provisions for taking care of the vulnerable sections of society.
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As the Sri Lankan government continues to resort to short-term ad hoc arrangements to service the country’s external debt obligations, two leading international investment banks warn that the lack of clarity on the debt sustainability front could keep both foreign and domestic investors at bay further worsening the country’s already weak external position.
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The outstanding debt of the Central government rose sharply in the first seven months of 2021, with the domestic financing increasing the most, as the budget deficit expanded to large proportions when the pandemic knocked the state revenues off course since April this year, when the restrictions returned.
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Sri Lankan exporters yesterday slammed the Central Bank for unjustly placing all exporters in one basket when the latter charged that exporters are not fully repatriating and converting their proceeds within a reasonable timeframe.
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While underscoring the need to help farmers make a gradual shift towards organic fertilizer usage from chemical fertilizers to overcome the short-term difficulties confronted during the transition, the Export Development Board (EDB) Chairman Suresh de Mel recently defended the government’s organic fertilizer policy as such could help Lankan agri exporters to make inroads into premium markets.
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The Central Bank has issued guidelines on how the banks should approach when dealing with loan impairments, effective from next year, when they come out of the latest round of moratoria, as there could still be a section of borrowers whose cash flows would be under pressure, even after the removal of economic restrictions.
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Amid a foreign exchange and a looming external debt crisis, Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal yesterday unveiled the much-awaited ‘The Six-Month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic and Financial System Stability’, with an aim to usher in greater stability to the economy, backed by stable prices and sound macroeconomic fundamentals.
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The government will have to come to its senses with regard the ban on chemical fertilizers as the current decision is more detrimental to the economy than the supposed negative implications arising from the usage of such fertilizers, Sri Lanka’s planters said.
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Sri Lanka’s insurance industry did well through the first six months in 2021 (1H21), led by the life insurance sector, continuing the momentum it gained in 2020, when the pandemic and its resulting health and monetary policy conditions augured favourably with the industry.
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Safe re-opening of the economy from lockdowns is imperative for Sri Lanka to push through its recovery after the country was emerging out of the pandemic induced recession in 2020 which left large slacks in many areas and sectors, awaiting to be regained and recovered to their full capacities, according to new Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal.
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The current trajectory of the consumer inflation is likely to go past the medium-term inflation target of the Central Bank, forcing it to lean towards its hawkish stance, which it set off in August to stem any more likely pressures on prices, according to ICRA Lanka Limited.
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Sri Lanka’s merchandise export earnings topped a billion dollars for the third consecutive month in August, with almost all the major export categories performing well despite the pandemic-induced restrictions, the Export Development Board (EDB) said in a statement.
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Remittance income from Sri Lankan migrant workers slumped for the third consecutive month in August, extending the year-on-year decline set off in June this year, a trend which is partly associated with the levelling off of the pace of growth continued for little over a year, and the re-emergence of grey market operations.
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Reminding the famous saying that one must never waste a good crisis, a leading economist in the country opined that there has never been a better time for Sri Lanka to make the pressing and long overdue reforms in its economy through tough revenue and expenditure reforms.
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The newly-appointed Central Bank (CB) Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal this week announced plans to unveil a fresh economic stability road map shortly, prioritising stability, including plans to pull back on money printing, with a view to rebuild confidence on the economy among the key stakeholders and market participants.
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Moody’s Investors Service yesterday said Sri Lanka’s external reserves remain still low even after taking receipts of inflows of around a billion dollars in the last couple of weeks, which helped the country to recoup part of the lost assets caused by the settlement of a billion dollar sovereign bond and other liabilities through August.
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Sri Lanka’s banks’ credit ratings are continued to be pressured by the challenging operating environment stemming from the weak sovereign credit profile and the lingering effects of the pandemic and its toll on the broader economy, according to Fitch Ratings.
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An improvement in Sri Lanka’s revenue mobilisation effort requires an urgent and extensive review of the tax system, to ensure the government can meet its expenditure commitments, while the country is in the midst of one of the worst macroeconomic crises in its history, economists said.
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There were signs of excessive imports of certain categories up to July this year, reflecting front-loading by a section of traders, a claim, which was repeatedly made by the Central Bank, while partly attributing it to the current undue pressure on the dollar-rupee exchange rate.
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Amid a slew of measures taken in the recent past to alleviate the pressure on the currency, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank this week decided to further limit importation of some 623 products under 11 categories, which are deemed “non-essential /non urgent,” unless such imports are covered by 100 percent cash margin.
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Quoting a health communiqué issued by Director General of Health Services Dr. Asela Gunawardena, on September 3, the Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau (SLTPB) yesterday in a statement said the prevailing lockdown and travel restriction rules would not apply to international tourists visiting Sri Lanka.
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The Central Bank has written to banks asking them not to quote outside Rs.200/Rs.203 level for US dollars on all foreign exchange transactions as banks were quoting Rs.238 for a dollar by Monday amid exporters continuing to withhold selling dollars in the domestic market to book massive conversion profits hoping that the rupee would further shed value.
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The government has ruled out any coal-based capacity additions or new coal-fired power plants as it reaffirms on the target set for the country’s power sector to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 while meeting 70 percent of the country’s power generation through renewable energy sources by 2030.
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Market lending rates have began responding to the policy rate and banks’ reserves ratio hikes announced on August 19, as prime customers witness their loans becoming pricier for the third straight week as the benchmark rate climbed above 6.0 percent last week.