Brent spikes to US$ 139 on prospect of Russia oil ban, delay in Iran deal

REUTERS: Oil prices spiked to their highest levels since 2008 yesterday as the United States and European allies weighed a Russian oil import ban and delays in the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets fuelled supply fears.
In the first few minutes of trade Brent crude reached US$ 139.13 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit US$ 130.50, both benchmarks striking their highest levels since July 2008.

By 1017 GMT, prices had lost some of those gains, with Brent up US$ 6.60, or 5.6 percent, at US$ 124.71 per barrel, and WTI up US$ 6.67, or 5.8 percent, at US$ 122.35.
The United States and European allies are exploring banning imports of Russian oil, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday, and the White House coordinated with key Congressional committees moving forward with their own ban.  

Analysts at Bank of America said if most of Russia’s oil exports are cut off, there could be a 5 million barrel per day (bpd) or larger shortfall, and that means oil prices could go as high as US$ 200.
JP Morgan analysts said oil could soar to US$ 185 this year, and analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (MUFG) said oil may rise to US$ 180 and cause a global recession.
“If the supply tightness does not ebb, oil may exceed way above its record high,” Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore’s OCBC bank, said.

“In the worst case scenario of a complete sanction on Russia’s energy exports, I won’t be surprised to see Brent trading above US$ 200,” he added.
Russia is the world’s top exporter of crude and oil products combined, with exports at around 7 million bpd, or 7 percent of global supply. Some volumes of Kazakhstan’s oil exports from Russian ports have also faced complications.

The head of Japan’s largest business lobby said the country’s imports of Russian crude could not be replaced immediately. Russia is Japan’s fifth-biggest supplier of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Global oil prices have spiked more than 60 percent since the start of 2022, along with other commodities, raising concerns about world economic growth and stagflation.
China, the world’s No. 2 economy, is already targeting slower growth of 5.5 percent this year.