Nowhere in recent history have we come across a situation like this, where the whole world is controlled by an unseen virus. This Global Pandemic, not only has posed health challenge but presented unprecedented economic challenges. In addition to that, the world is facing environmental challenges with rapid climate changes, super power transition on the cards. Everything is happening simultaneously at this juncture and the challenges are common across all countries. Is it then possible to isolate ourselves and address them? The early part of 2020, Sri Lanka did reasonably well in dealing with the Pandemic. However post-August, something went wrong. Indicators are that the virus is spreading. Health officials are battling with low resources. Even though there is a ray of hope that a vaccine will be available soon, it is most unlikely that it will reach Sri Lanka in the next 12 months. Accepting a vaccine is the Government’s role. It cannot be done overnight. What measures are now in place towards not only, getting that vaccine but how it could be distributed to all corners of the country together with the most crucial part of administering it on people? It appears that the budget for 2021 has less allocation of funds for Health. Thus we wonder if we are really ready to live with Covid-19 and the challenges which come with it. It is more likely that 2021 will be another 2020. Therefore we have to live with this situation. But is the Government or the people prepared for this? All countries have been allocating huge amounts of money to battle the pandemic. Some people have the notion that it will vanish. While we wait in such hope, protecting ourselves, our families, our colleagues and neighbours are both our individual and collective responsibility.
Global scenario
We learnt during the last 11 months, the damage industrialisation has done to our cities. As human activity became less and less, the cities have become more beautiful. It looks like the world has taken a break from human beings by confining them to their homes. Right now, oil and energy seem irrelevant. There is far less air, land and sea travel, to the extent that some airlines have had to close down. Middle Eastern countries have gone through such change they are unable to deal with the situation. Sri Lankans who are employed overseas are losing their jobs. Sri Lanka among many other East and South Asian countries have to focus more and more on repatriation of their people. What will they do, once back in the country? How will they become productive citizens? The damage to done to the economy, how will we recover? These are the questions which we have to find answers to.
Global power shift
Before the Pandemic, China was gradually becoming an economic giant. Their systems ensured that they came out of the pandemic without much delay. If anyone thought that China was going to lose as a result of Covid-19, the joke was on the rest of the world. China is an economic giant. Perhaps due to some degree, as a result of policies of the Trump Administration, it was shifting slightly. Covid-19 has taught us that there is a shift in everything. Countries want to go from Globalisation to liberalisation. Globalisation seems to be irrelevant in the present context. Countries are more interested in localisation and having their own production lines. What does this mean to countries which were the producers for large international companies? It is apparent that increasingly China is being portrayed as a villain. The ramifications of that are yet to be seen. Australia’s battle with China on trade might bring adverse results for everyone.
Similarly, world organisations such as the United Nations, WHO, the World Trade Organisation will also have to consider changes within themselves. What is their role in the current scenario and post Covid-19. They may not be able to balance world affairs as they used to. We even might see different organisations coming up to cater to the post Covid-19 needs of the world.
Living beyond our means
Although some people may not agree “Sri Lanka is and still continues to live beyond its means.” As a country, we have been taking loans which we have no way of paying back and now it has got into the psyche of the people as well. In the last century, people enjoyed life with what they had. Most often the father was the breadwinner of the family and the mother managed the house and the finances. They had parties, went on trips etc with what they earned. They had good relations with colleagues and neighbours and everyone supported each other in their times of need. There was no unhealthy competition. Today, it is a mad rush to earn money and do better than the next person. “In this consumerist mentality we are being sold items which we do not need.” We become poor by spending money we do not possess, to show that we are rich! But in the present context, both the people and the Government need to think of being humble and live within our means. If not, we will be in deep trouble.
We are all too familiar with the ‘mahaththaya, apita mukuth nedda?’ (sir, isn’t there anything for us?) or in the north “Aiya, enakum ondrum illayaa ?” usual request we hear from poverty-stricken people when we visit those areas. Such a question, I am sorry to say implies that doling out assistance is a right. Sri Lanka begs from IMF, World Bank, ADB, USA, China etc., in the same manner. When we get loans we celebrate. What is there to celebrate in taking a loan sometimes at high-interest rates when for generations we have to pay back? We do not know what is in store for us.
We need practical approaches to improve individual, household and country economies. Do we have a team working on this at present?
National budget
Our budget for the year 2021 is a development budget, but is it a Nation-building budget? Are we going to borrow more?
Our debts are extremely high. Over the past 20-30 years, we have been amassing unproductive assets. So what is our goal as a country? We are not mindful of what we borrow because we have to pay. We all want the President to be successful and take this country to the next level, however, we must avoid investing in unproductive assets. At this juncture, we have to re-evaluate our programmes and focus on the ones which bring productive results.
We must make the right decisions and the next 6 months are crucial. If we do not, we can see the country going back decades to a point of no return maybe. We should be able to move forward with all the natural resources we have without bowing down to anyone.
The Banking and Finance sector will be put to test in the new year as to how we all perform as a nation.
Economic vulnerability
I will just take one simple example to illustrate this important aspect. Recently there was a news story of high Pawning Loan stock which had soared by around 60 billion during the months of the pandemic. This indicates that roughly 750,000 to 1,000,000 new families have become extremely vulnerable and are facing harsh economic challenges, hardships and realities. This is the main story but the underlying story is something else, and is worse than the main story, “what is the position of families who do not possess any jewellery to pawn at all ???” Does anybody knows the number of such families ??
Mental health
After Covid hit us, people, particularly in urban areas, have been affected psychologically. This is invisible. Disruption to family routines has resulted in people being mentally challenged even without their knowledge. We as a nation have never placed mental health as a priority. Therefore, we have to start now and ensure that there are enough services available for people who are affected by it. If not, the adverse results of mental health issues can be seen in the next five years.
Leading the Nation
At a time like this, the country really needs a team that can foresee the future. Most crucial is “WHAT IS GOING TO BE THE POST-COVID ECONOMIC MODEL?.” We need proper studies on the situation that the country and the people are going through. Statesmen with leadership vision and a wealth of knowledge and vision are what we need. If Athulathmudali was alive, he would have definitely consulted the experts on all these topics, not only locally but also from other nations with his diplomacy and seniority, to come up with a plan to address all these issues.
The view of the world he possessed and the exposure he had, coupled with his ability to provide pragmatic solutions to complex issues, would have been an invaluable asset to the nation at a time like this.
He would have factored in the fertility of the land, the weather, marine resources we possess, to bring a lasting solution to the problems that the country is facing, with emphasis on “Export or Perish “, his penchant slogan and also the protection and development of the Local Industry.
We are still a blessed nation. But blessings must be complemented with the right thinking and timely decision making to rise above the pandemic.
