More arrests would lead to do-or-die elections

This threat of survival might sometimes lead to widespread election violations 

• Thus, the next Presidential or Parliamentary election, whichever is to be held first, would be a do-or-die fight for both the ruling NPP and the Opposition parties

The main Opposition, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has to be vigilant about its members since three of its prominent members thus far have been accused of having links with the underworld in the recent past.
First, Chairman of the Weligama Pradeshiya Sabha, Lasantha Wickramasekara who was elected to the said body on behalf of the SJB, was shot dead on October 22 last year. He was accused of having associated with the underworld. Six court cases were being heard against him when he was shot dead in his office, and he was under a suspended prison sentence as well. 
Then, another SJB candidate who contested for the Ambalangoda Urban Council at the last local government elections was shot dead on December 22 last year. Police said that the victim had been implicated in two homicide cases reported in 2014 and 2015,  and had previously been arrested by the Police Narcotics Bureau in possession of a stock of live ammunition.
Horana SJB organiser  Charith Abeysinghe was arrested last week (on June 25) along with Rakitha Rajapakshe, the son of former Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe  by the CIABOC  for allegedly receiving a bribe from a person having links with the underworld. The party has suspended Abeysinghe’s membership as well as his organiser post immediately. 
Similar to what the National People’s Power (NPP) said about the allegations by the CIABOC against former Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody, SJB leaders also said that Abeysinghe was not a member of the party when the bribery incident against him allegedly took place. It is said that the incident involving Abeysinghe has taken place in 2023.
Despite a series of arrests being made by the CIABOC and the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) in the recent months over corruption and criminal activities, the arrest of Rajapakshe and Abeysinghe, if allegations are proved, exposes a terrifying situation where mafia-like groups masterminding  multi-million-rupee of bribes, ransoms and death threats by abusing their power. 
In spite of the authenticity of it having to yet to be established, an audio clip associated with this bribery case which is now being circulated in the social media indicates that a massive amount of money is being illegally exchanged between politicians, senior police officers and  drug lords. The wife of detained drug kingpin Nadun Chinthaka who is commonly known as Harak Kata says that she paid hundreds of millions of rupees to lawyers and others in order to get the conditions of detention of her husband eased. It did not sound as if she followed legal means. 
Shockingly, it is said that money is being demanded and received even to save suspects in detention from death, seemingly from extra judicial killings. Harak Kata himself once said when he was brought to the court that a senior police officer and a minister demanded Rs. 300 million from him.
Who is going to kill the suspects in detention? Was that what happened to Makandure Madush? How can the lawyers or anyone outside the legal process save the suspects from such a fate? These are some of the questions that arise from the last week’s arrests. To be fair by those who were named in the audio clip, it must be said again that the whole episode remains yet to be verified.
Weeks in to the National People’s Power (NPP) government assuming office, the Opposition leaders mockingly challenged the ruling party, asking if they have caught the thieves as they promised during the last elections. With almost every week now, with at least one prominent figure, a politician or a high-ranking official being arrested, questioned or detained, the same Opposition calls it political vendetta. 
However, unlike in the case of Sallay, the former head of State Intelligence Service (SIS), a deafening silence can be observed from the Opposition circles on the arrest and detention of Rajapakshe and Abeysinghe. Also, only a very few people in  social media came forward to defend them,  apparently because they believe the police version of their case. That shows how profoundly the audio clip has influenced public opinion. Given the timing of its release, it may be taken for granted that the police circulated it, expecting its impact on the public opinion.  
Most of the arrests are now made or cases are revived based on the complaints made during the tenure of previous governments, including the so-called Yahapalana Government; hence more arrests could be expected.
The more Opposition politicians are arrested, the more pressure there would be on both the ruling party and the Opposition to win the forthcoming elections by hook or by crook. Because, there is an aspect of survival -- political as well as personal -- of politicians of all parties which has come to the fore. That is what was indicated by the recent remark by SJB MP Dayasiri Jayasekara during a recent televised discussion that Opposition groups must unite and defeat the NPP at the next election, regardless of those groups being accused of racism, corruption or having criminals in their ranks.
With the current pace of  administration of justice, one cannot expect the cases against  Opposition politicians to be concluded before the next Presidential election. Even if they are concluded in the lower courts many appeals might pend in higher courts. The government would need at least another term to see those cases to conclusively come to an end with many of those accused being put behind bars.  
If the NPP is defeated at the next Presidential or Parliamentary election, the whole current process to eradicate corruption and crime would be rolled back. Cases would be withdrawn or weakened, investigators would be transferred or sometimes penalised, appeals in higher courts would be expedited and many people convicted by the lower courts would be discharged and released. Proportionately to those developments, the leaders of the current government would be hauled before the courts, with or without reason; and sometimes the same criminals now appearing before courts would be set upon them. 
This is a country where cases against assassination of members of Parliament were withdrawn without citing reasons. And interestingly, commissions were appointed to nullify  court cases filed during the previous regime against  politicians and officials loyal to the ruling party,  and to abolish the civic rights of those who were instrumental to file those cases.
Thus, the next Presidential or Parliamentary election, whichever is to be held first, would be a do-or-die fight for both the ruling NPP and the Opposition parties. This threat of survival, politically as well as individually, might sometimes lead to widespread election violations.