Southwest Monsoon expected to lose vigour next month : Meteorology Department

By Yohan Perera   

Confirming the forecast made by some metrological authorities in a few countries in the region including India and Myanmar, the Department of Meteorology here yesterday said dry weather could be expected next month as the Southwest Monsoon is expected to lose its vigour.   

Department of Meteorology Climatologist Malith Fernando said Sri Lanka could also expect a dry spell because of the El Nino effect experienced in the country. The dryness is a result of weakening winds.   

“Rains will continue through May. However a dry spell could be expected in June. Sri Lankan can expect considerably heavy showers in the coming few days,” Fernando told Daily Mirror. 

“ The arrival of the south-west monsoon appears to be slipping slightly, if signals from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are any guide. Sri Lanka, the immediate prior port of call before the monsoon reaches Kerala, said this (Monday) morning that the season is only ‘gradually establishing across the island.’ Indian media reported yesterday.   

“The onset of the Monsoon over the island is now delayed beyond the expected date of around May 22. From here, the monsoon could take up to a week to reach Kerala. After advancing over Myanmar and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands broadly on schedule, the flow appears to have lost some of its early momentum. Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has also forecasted a lull in the monsoon’s northward progress after its onset over the southern parts of the country. Its advance into central Myanmar is now expected to be delayed by two to four days, according to latest available projections. In this manner, loss of pace upstream now appears to be echoing farther west and south-west, disrupting the monsoon’s progression toward Sri Lanka and, subsequently, Kerala,” the report added.    “Given these signals, it now appears likely that the onset over Kerala could fall toward the latter half of India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) onset window of May 26 with a margin of plus or minus four days. A likely low-pressure area developing over extreme east Bay of Bengal during this period could draw monsoon flows away, though it may help the monsoon establish with a delay over Sri Lanka first,” it also stated.