Staggering regime strains to negotiate uncertainty, people’s pressure

 Some of the protests staged these days focus on highlighting the fact that the country needs an alternate and capable leader 

• Senior political analysts, public question govt.’s incompetence
• Activist groups could put more pressure on the courts
• The Government and the Opposition have proven that they are incapable of comprehending the gravity of the crisis

The failure to deliver on promises, defections and shortsighted decisions have led the country towards the edge of a precipice. Fuel shortages, soaring cost of living, irregular power outages and the fertiliser crisis have severely inconvenienced the public to the point that they have now opted to take to the streets to express their disappointment. Instability within the ruling party and the Opposition has further aggravated the situation as no political party is ready to come together with their rivals on the political stage to resolve the crisis before it worsens. On the contrary, each one of these parties has now started to campaign on its own with the hopes that it could overthrow the incumbent regime and resolve the crisis. But whether they are experienced enough to present a concrete, long-term plan to restore normalcy in the country remains glaringly doubtful.

The crumbling of a hegemony

Airing his views on the prevailing crisis political activist Dayapala Thiranagama said that the crisis will continue unchanged for some time. “Basically the Rajapaksas’ hegemonic power is crumbling and it will be difficult for them to build it up again. People are experiencing a difficult period and there’s no political solution at all. From the power crisis to the fertiliser issue and fuel shortages, the problem that has been created cannot be resolved in the short term. Unless the Rajapaksas go out of this equation this crisis will remain,” opined Thiranagama. 

Responding to a query on the split within the Opposition Thiranagama said that the people have no trust in the Opposition. “The Opposition has been unable to propose any creative programme to resolve the crisis,” he said. 
Sometime back there had been talks about a Local Government Election, but Thiranagama said that any election at this point will bring a defeat to the Rajapaksa hegemony. “They have no way of winning an election unless and until they resolve the present crisis by bringing in fertilisers, restoring power and electricity and resolving other economic and political issues,” he added. 

He further said that there cannot be an immediate solution unless the government admits that it has failed. “All political circles should unite and discuss these matters together. But I don’t think they are in a situation to listen to people,” said Thiranagama. 

Thiranagama warned that things would be catastrophic if the prevailing situation continues. “People are unhappy. Things are bad for people and the government is unable to help. This won’t be the last time that a defection happens in the government. It will happen again and again,” he added. 

Experience matters 

“Given the nature of politics, it is unrealistic to expect a solution from parties that have brought about this ruin,” opined Dr. Rajan Hoole, academic and human rights activist. “Many of them may feel trapped themselves. It is also idle to expect some good men and women who have not been in politics at all to come up with a settlement that has no engine to give it life. To make anything work it needs people with political experience. A point worth thinking about is the 2018 constitutional crisis. People were for a time looking up to a Chief Justice who was seen to be honest and impartial. Such persons cannot do much by themselves. But activist groups could put more pressure on the courts. Judicial disasters like the Supreme Court’s 1951 judgment in support of the Citizenship Act were not forcefully contested with a mixture of legal and political agitation. The Left simply threw in the towel. If the courts are prepared to declare bad laws unconstitutional as O.L. de Kretser did with Sinhala Only, that would help create a situation where democratic political agitation could succeed,” opined Dr.Hoole. 

When asked if a Parliamentary election would be a remedy at this point Dr. Hoole responded in the negative. “I don’t think a parliamentary election within the next year would help. People need time to absorb what has happened and think about it. It is here that public discussion such as what we saw from 1993 - 1994 is important. There was a crisis, a hamstrung government and that gave space for free expression. Rushing for elections before the public has made up its mind would simply lead to anarchy,” he said. 

As mentioned earlier a new regime might also be unable to resolve the prevailing crisis. “A hamstrung government may not do much harm, but forcing change without consensus might do much damage,” he further said. 

Regime change required?

Ever since the incumbent Government assumed power one-sided decisions have become the order of the day.  
“This crisis is nothing new to Sri Lanka and everybody knew that it would blow out of proportion during the first quarter of 2022,” opined senior political analyst Prof. Jayadeva Uyangoda. “The Government and the Opposition have proven that they are incapable of comprehending the gravity of the crisis. Therefore we cannot clearly see what would happen in weeks and months to come. Uncertainty has no solution. The economic crisis is unprecedented. The governance crisis is such that it requires a regime change. But even a new regime may not be able to handle the crisis. Maybe that’s why the Samagi Jana Balawegaya is keeping quiet. Even if they come to power they cannot do it.

“What is required is an inclusive political discussion where the Government, trade unions, civil society groups and religious leaders would come together to discuss how to handle the crisis. This discussion shouldn’t only be confined to the ruling party. Political bureaucrats and experts have proven that they’re incapable of running a country,” said Prof. Uyangoda. 

When asked about the possibility of having a Local Government Election, Prof. Uyangoda said that the Government might consider it an option to legitimise its failures. He further said that a regime change would give a sense of cathartic relief to people. “People will realise that they have exercised their franchise by throwing out an inept, power hungry government. But if there’s no unrest among people, then there’s a serious problem with them,” he affirmed. 

An ailing country 

“Sri Lanka is a country that has been governed in a disorderly manner for sometime now,” observed senior political analyst and veteran journalist Victor Ivan. “Arrogance among leaders has led the country towards failure. The election of a president with indictments is questionable in the first place. The fact that there was no annexure to prove that he has given up his US citizenship was never questioned during the presidential election. In my opinion it was a massive fraud. People who questioned his citizenship were later labeled as LTTE supporters.
“The President has put forward his military shadow and as a result those in his own party are afraid to question or advice him on how to put things on track. Even with a 100% majority no president has a right to govern a country according to his own whims and fancies. This country is now like an ailing patient who requires immediate surgery, but continues to be treated with native medicine. The impacts of the prevailing crisis will perhaps be felt for decades,” said Ivan. 

He further said that it is rather unfortunate that there’s no strong Opposition to propose a plan to rally all political parties together in order to resolve this crisis. “If people take to the streets, the Government will feel the pressure to some extent. It was good to see some women protesting in front of the President’s house. More women should be involved in this resistance movement. The Sri Lankan economy depends on women as it is a majority of women in garment factories, estate sector and many other avenues who generate income to the country. Apart from that journalists too need to be critical at this point,” he said. 

Pix by Kushan Pathiraja

Even with a 100% majority no president has a right to govern a country according to his own whims and fancies
- Victor Ivan, Senior Political Analyst and Veteran Journalist

But even a new regime may not be able to handle the crisis. Maybe that’s why the Samagi Jana Balawegaya is keeping quiet. 
- Prof. Jayadeva Uyangoda, Senior Political Analyst

Rushing for elections before the public has made up its mind would simply lead to anarchy. 
- Dr. Rajan Hoole, Academic and Human Rights Activist

Basically the Rajapaksas’ hegemonic power is crumbling and it will be difficult for them to build it up again. 
- Dayapala Thiranagama, political activist

A disappointed citizenry 

Over the past few days people have taken to the streets in numbers, holding demonstrations around the country, questioning the government’s plan to resolve the prevailing crisis and restore normalcy. A few participants at a peaceful demonstration in Rajagiriya had this to say: 

“Everybody has been inconvenienced”

“The reason I’m participating at this protest is on behalf of all citizens in the country. Everybody has been inconvenienced in either one way or the other, be it due to the fuel shortages, soaring costs of essential items etc. Therefore we are here to raise our voices in solidarity.” 

– Kusal Perera

“There’s absolutely no leadership”

“People are suffering. There are power cuts and everything has taken a toll on our standard of living. We are in a very unfortunate situation. We have never experienced this before. Therefore if we do our part then leaders would stop making people uncomfortable. It’s surprising that they’re ignoring it to such an extent. We hope there’ll be some sort of reaction. Everything has become chaotic and there’s absolutely no leadership.”

– A protester who wished to remain anonymous 

“Hopefully the government will hear people’s concerns”

“We have been coming out on consecutive days to mark a protest in terms of what is happening in Sri Lanka and in terms of the collapse in governance and government. People don’t have food, medicine, fuel and power. If the Government does not take sufficient action we would be in a further crisis. We have come out to silently and peacefully protest and hopefully our government will hear the people’s concerns.” 

– Bhavani Fonseka 

“There will be no future for our children”

“I’m here today because I’m looking forward to a better future for our children. If this Government continues there would be no future for our children.” 

– Cleetus Kulanayagam

“We are in a catastrophic situation”

“People have come here as citizens pleading with these rulers to go home. Obviously they cannot govern a country. Sri Lanka was at one time the most modern country in South Asia, but today we have become similar to a poor country in Africa. Food prices have doubled and there’s no availability of items. People have to be in queues and there’s no electricity. The tourism industry is getting affected because small hotels don’t have generators, the water board is not giving water and we are in a catastrophic situation. Therefore the whole country should come out on to the streets and ask them to go home. The leaders have proved that they are incapable and we have hit rock bottom now.” 

– Panchali Panapitiya