Is Sri Lanka at the threshold of fourth wave of COVID-19 or has it already entered through that threshold? We have to pose this question as the nature of the current surge in the number of COVID-19 patients during the past week is not clear.
During the third wave which was the result of highly increased mobility throughout the country during the Sinhala and Hindu New Year, the daily infection tally rose even up to 3500 which led the authorities to impose tough restrictions of movement on the people, further hampering economic activities. However, the measure resulted in the plummeting of the daily infections up to 1500.
With the official daily numbers so declining the authorities drastically relaxed the restrictions on July 5 allowing buses and trains to take passengers to half of their seating capacity (which was never adhered to!), meetings, markets and roadside fairs, economic centres, boutiques, supermarkets, spas and many more places where people gather, the health authorities, especially the Public Health Inspectors warned of another surge in the numbers. By the end of the month they were proved correct. The daily COVID-19 tally rose steadily again to 2500 by Sunday which was only 1666 a week ago, while the daily death toll also jumping up to 67, a relatively high number in Sri Lanka. A week ago the daily death toll was around 45.
It is against this backdrop that the government has issued circulars to the public sector calling all employees to report for work from yesterday. One can understand the government’s concern over the collapse of the economy due to the health restrictions imposed in view of the COVID-19 outbreak since last year at varying degrees from time to time. However, it seems to be a far cry from the concerns of the health authorities who are toiling hard to keep the coronavirus at bay.
The situation is alarming with the spread of highly contagious Delta strain – also known as B.1.617.2 of COVID-19 – which is expected to rapidly out-compete other variants and become the dominant circulating lineage over the coming months, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO also said a study done in Canada showed the risk of hospitalization, ICU admission and death associated with the Delta variant compared to non-Variant of Concerns (VOCs) increased by 120%, 287% and 137% respectively.
The Delta variant has been around since late last year, but in recent months it has become speedily dominant in many countries across the globe including Australia, Bangladesh, Botswana, China, Denmark, India, Indonesia, Israel, Portugal, Russian Federation, Singapore, South Africa and the United Kingdom. It accounts for more than 80% of newly diagnosed cases in the US, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). COVID-19 cases have increased over 300% nationally from June 19 to July 23, 2021, along with parallel increases in hospitalizations and deaths, the CDC had said.
Deputy Director of Health Services Dr. Hemantha Herath said last week as per research carried out so far, the health ministry suspected 20 to 30% of Delta cases may be present in the Colombo district. He did not rule out the possibility of the Delta variant having spread in other districts as well. World-renowned Sri Lankan born virologist of Hong Kong University Prof. Malik Peiris in his virtual address for an event organized by Sri Lanka Science Foundation said on Saturday that Sri Lanka was going to have the worse COVID-19 outbreak in the months ahead.
When it has been decided to call all public sector employees to report for work, the government seems to be banking on the vaccination drive which is earned accolade from the WHO and the World bank. However, we are being pushed again to the square one since the evidence the prevalence of vaccine - resistant strains of the coronavirus, especially the Delta variant. CNN quoting researches reported on Saturday that vaccination alone won’t stop the rise of new variants and in fact could push the evolution of strains that evade their protection. AFP on the same day said, a pan-European team of experts simulated the probability of a vaccine-resistant strain emerging in a population of 10 million people over three years.
The CDC said earlier this year that fully vaccinated people are very safe from infection and can take off their masks in most situations. However, on Tuesday, it altered its guidance on mask use. Now, it says, according to CNN, even fully vaccinated people can sometimes catch the virus and if they catch the Delta variant, they are just as likely to infect someone else as an unvaccinated person would be. It advised everyone in areas of high or sustained virus transmission to wear masks when among others. So, the remedy is again the social distancing and wearing masks which is going to be a catch 22 situation for pandemic hit economies in countries like Sri Lanka, despite the success of the vaccination drive.
