Facing the El Nino phenomenon and proclivities of the West

The Meteorology Department has warned that, while  our country is currently experiencing the Southwest Monsoon season, the effects of a weather pattern known as El Niño are expected to become more pronounced in the coming weeks. It added that the  developing El Niño will affect Sri Lanka through mid-2026 and beyond.

The El Nino effect shifts huge amounts of heat into the atmosphere, significantly raises global temperatures and dramatically alters regional climates. According to the department,  the El Nino effect will significantly weaken the Southwest Monsoon. As a result we will face prolonged dry spells, heat waves, and water stress. Water stress occurs when the demand for safe, usable water exceeds the available supply during a specific period. 

It is expected to hit the western, southern, and central regions. At the same time, it raises the risk of heavy rains and floods in the northern and eastern provinces later in the year. Additionally,  the El Nino effect has a strong effect on marine life. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient rich. 

The El Niño effect weakens or stops upwelling altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there less phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton. In turn, this affects everyone and everything that eats fish. The Southwest monsoon season is now on.   But the impact of El Niño is expected to become more pronounced during the coming weeks and intense, record-breaking temperatures are expected to peak in July/August. There could be very little rainfall. Normally during this period we experience high temperatures as well. With the El Nino kicking in, we could expect temperatures to rise even further.   

This peculiar weather pattern had been predicted much earlier. The last time El Nino hit our country was in 2016. While the phenomenon keeps occurring in ten to eleven year cycles, it was only on June 8 that the Food Policy and Security Committee met at the Presidential Secretariat to discuss measures to be taken to mitigate potential impacts on Sri Lanka.  Our Minister of Agriculture, Livestock, Land and Irrigation, with more experience in organising worker unions,  and the Minister of Trade, Commerce, Food Security and Co-operative Development, co-chaired the meeting. 

The meeting focused on the need to ensure adequate water storage in reservoirs for the forthcoming Yala season and to safeguard drinking water supplies.   This newspaper has over the years spoken of the need for a long-term plan to ensure adequate supply of water both for drinking and for agriculture. We have highlighted how countries of the Middle East –vast desserts in the main --  have made the deserts bloom, from Oman to Saudi Arabia…making use of the limited oceans on one or other borders of their lands. 

These countries now export vegetables and fruits.   Sri Lanka,  surrounded by the ocean, still depends on irrigation schemes designed by kings of a bye-gone era to provide adequate water for the population of ancient times. Today,  our population has increased many times over; and the moment we face a dry spell of weather, our leaders cry ‘drought’, seek aid and import basic foodstuffs,  wasting precious foreign exchange.  

It is not that we do not have the technology to face this problem. The Thalaiyadi Seawater Desalination Plant is designed to solve severe drinking water shortages in the Jaffna Peninsula. It processes seawater to provide safe drinking water to over 300,000 residents across the Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts. 

We need greater investment in this field.  The Middle East war exposes our total reliance on Persian Gulf energy supplies.  A number of fully functioning wind and solar farms are generating power to the national grid. For example the Thambapavani Wind Farm Operated by the Ceylon Electricity Board features 30 state-of-the-art turbines with a total capacity of 103.5 MW.   There is a need to accelerate our solar energy capacity. Our country is totally dependent for its energy on the petroleum resources of the Middle East. 

The US-Israeli war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made us extremely vulnerable.  This makes it imperative for the government to invest in renewable energy sources and  make us less vulnerable to the proclivities of the US and the West.

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