What can Turkiye and Sri Lanka do in a world which is in a flux in 2026?

The world steps into 2026 with uncertainty. It is witnessing prolonged crises involving Gaza, Ukraine and the Middle East. A possible U.S. strike on Iran looms.  

Unlike in the case of the U.S. capturing the Venezuelan President and his spouse in a military operation, there are deterrents to any strong-arm tactics in the West Asian region. 

Today, the world is witnessing global norms eroding and power centres shifting. The world perspectives keep changing. Sri Lanka’s economy is sensitive to   upheavals in the world. Economic problems are not always in its hands for tackling, as for any other country.

When it comes to the Middle-East, in this volatile environment, Türkiye has emerged as an actor positioned at the intersection of Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Straddling multiple fault lines of global politics, its foreign policy is shaped by a pragmatic reading of geography, history and shifting power balances. It is a regional power deeply embedded in Middle Eastern dynamics. The Middle East is an extremely important region for Sri Lanka. Nearly one million Sri Lankans work in the region, and their remittances matter greatly to the local economy. Sri Lanka depends on the region for petroleum products, and any conflict there will lead to fuel price surges with ripple effects for the Sri Lankan economy. In West Asia or the Middle East, Türkiye’s strategic relevance lies in its ability to engage across divides at a time when diplomatic bridges are rapidly collapsing.

Against the backdrop, Turkish Ambassador to Sri Lanka Semih Lütfü Turgut, in a roundtable discussion arranged by the leading think-tank Pathfinder Foundation, remarked that the past year had been marked by turbulence, uncertainty and unresolved conflicts in the world. He shared Turkish perspectives covering a wide range of areas while asserting that the two countries- Turkiye and Sri Lanka  - have common opinion to share.  

As we step into 2026, it is evident that the world enters this new chapter burdened by unresolved tensions and conflicts of the past, he said.

He asserted that although the two countries are separated by geography, Türkiye and Sri Lanka share a common aspiration for peace, stability and development in their regions and in the wider world.

“Our partnership is built not only on history and culture, but also on shared values and a shared vision for the future,” he said.

Commenting on the global scenario, he said that February 24, 2026, will mark the fourth anniversary of the Russia–Ukraine war.

“Many thought that Russia would conquer Ukraine in a matter of months, if not weeks. Today, Russia remains engaged in a war of attrition. The war in Gaza began on October 7, 2023, nearly two and a half years ago. Although considered a mighty military power by many, Israel could not deal with Hamas. Both Ukraine and Hamas have proved to be more resilient than expected. Peace in Ukraine is slow, and Washington’s search for a deal between the parties will likely remain the top international agenda item in 2026. The support of European countries for Ukraine and the EU’s anti-Russia sanctions have led to speculation about a military conflict in the Baltics. The war in Ukraine has also shown the limits of what Russia can achieve in a war,” he said.

As for the war in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, more than 70,000 Palestinians have been killed, including more than 10,000 women and 20,000 children. Gaza has been reduced to rubble while many countries, led by Washington, have stood solidly behind the Israeli government. As Israeli defence forces bombed Gaza, some countries gradually began expressing opposition to Israel’s military campaigns, largely driven by concerns over public reactions that could affect elections in some European countries. The unconditional support given by the U.S. and some other countries to Israel has made the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians easier. The war crimes will be remembered for decades, according to him.

In his view, the ceasefire in Gaza is fragile, and the future remains unpromising since Israeli attacks on Gaza are continuing.

In the wake of unfolding global circumstances, he said that both Sri Lanka and Türkiye should closely monitor developments in the Middle East.

“It is important for you, because you have thousands of workers there. You have very close commercial and trade relations with Middle Eastern countries. We should closely monitor developments in the Middle East,” he said.

According to Türkiye’s perspective, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has introduced fresh uncertainty. Somaliland’s unilateral declaration of independence from Somalia and its proximity to Djibouti, home to China’s only military base outside Asia, add another layer of complexity with far-reaching implications. The most consequential developments, however, may unfold around Iran. Protests, coupled with Israel’s willingness to pursue military operations against Iran, create ambiguity and pose direct threats to regional stability.

Sri Lanka, under the current administration, has shown interest in improving ties with the Middle East. Asked for comments on the United Arab Emirates’ increased role in Sri Lanka, especially in terms of relief assistance in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, the Turkish Ambassador said the UAE’s role in the region is not sudden.

“It is not a sudden change. The UAE has been active in the Middle East for the last 15 to 20 years,” he said. “Maybe their role in Sri Lanka has become more visible now, or because of recent developments you may have realised that the United Arab Emirates was already there. But it is not a sudden or new development. In fact, when the Arab Spring— not a spring in my opinion—happened in the Arab world, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, comparatively smaller countries but with huge resources, were very interested in those developments and were very active,” he said.

 The Middle East stands out as a region whose instability carries direct consequences far beyond its borders. For Sri Lanka, the stakes are particularly high, given its heavy reliance on worker remittances, energy supplies and trade links with the region. In this context, Türkiye’s ability to engage across political and ideological divides assumes added significance at a time when traditional diplomatic channels are exhausted and global norms are under strain.