India aims for a 200-ship navy to counter China and Pakistan

SCMP - India’s ambition to grow its navy past 200 ships within the next decade has taken on fresh urgency as China expands the world’s largest naval fleet and Pakistan adds advanced Chinese-built attack submarines, heightening New Delhi’s anxieties in the Indian Ocean.

Analysts see this month’s commissioning of the stealth frigate INS Mahendragiri and submarine hunter INS Malvan this month as a symbol of that effort: both domestically built warships presented as evidence that New Delhi can scale up its fleet while reducing dependence on foreign suppliers.

Mahendragiri, designed by the Indian Navy’s Warship Design Bureau and built by Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders with 75 per cent indigenous content, embodies Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s drive for atmanirbharta (self-reliance) across critical industries, defence being chief among them.

It is the sixth Nilgiri-class ship to enter service. A seventh, Vindhyagiri – the last of its class – is set to follow within months, with seven or eight “next generation” warships, code-named Project-17 Bravo, already queued up.

India’s navy currently numbers around 150 vessels, of which some 135 are thought to be classified as frontline combatants such as frigates, destroyers and submarines. Roughly 50 more are under construction.

“Considering that composition is largely made up of indigenously supported ships, the target of a 200-ship navy by 2035 is well within reach,” said Sanjay Misra, a former rear admiral turned defence analyst. “Given the right impetus we could even exceed this figure.”

Amid the current strategic backdrop, Misra said that India now needed at least two highly mobile, self-contained fleets on permanent standby – a posture requiring substantially more warships and support vessels.

The navy has responded by accelerating inductions to the point that a new warship enters service every six weeks or so. In the past month and a half alone, it commissioned five indigenously built vessels.

India’s long-term ambition is to achieve complete self-reliance in shipbuilding, including for components, by 2047.

But critics point to numerous obstacles. Not only does the country rely heavily on imported specialised steel and other components, its disjointed domestic supply chain and outdated shipyard infrastructure hamper progress.

Misra identified two core weaknesses: insufficient infrastructure and skilled manpower, and technological deficits in areas such as sensors, weapons systems and power generation.

“However, we have made considerable headway in the recent past and are certain that we would be home to many such niche technologies in the not-so-distant future,” he said.

Not only that, but self-reliance need not mean isolation, according to Misra.

“The way forward is to bring imports to naught as it has a deleterious side effect of strategic dependence. Collaboration on the other hand is an enabler,” he told This Week in Asia, pointing to a Japanese proposal to co-produce the East Asian nation’s Mogami-class frigate in Indian shipyards.

India and Japan have already signed a deal, earlier this month, to jointly develop the Unicorn stealth mast, a system designed to make Indian warships harder to detect on enemy radar.

Home-grown hulls

Last year, Delhi launched a US$8.4 billion maritime revival package aimed at turning India into one of the world’s top five shipbuilding nations by the 100th anniversary of its independence in 2047.

With this in mind, Srinivasan Balakrishnan, director of strategic engagements and partnerships at the Delhi-based Indic Researchers Forum think tank, called the 200-ship target ambitious but achievable, pointing to recent milestones such as the INS Vikrant aircraft carrier, delivered in 2022, the indigenous Kalvari-class submarines and 10 domestically built destroyers.

The pipeline for domestic manufacturing was expanding to corvettes, frigates and patrol vessels, Balakrishnan said, but domestic manufacturing still faced capacity constraints, a shortage of skilled workforce and supply chain bottlenecks for critical systems.

“India will likely need selective collaboration and technology transfers with foreign partners, such as France, Russia, Israel and the US for propulsion, sensors and weapons integration,” he said, adding that ships’ hull and systems integration could largely be completed at home to balance self-reliance with timely delivery.

Going forward, Balakrishnan said building a robust navy would be essential for India to secure its sea lanes, protect trade and maintain credible deterrence.

“With focused investment and pragmatic partnerships, India is well positioned to meet this goal and bolster regional stability,” he said.

The US Department of Defence estimates that China’s navy currently operates more than 370 warships, including modern aircraft carriers, destroyers and submarines.

Balakrishnan noted that Beijing’s fleet was still growing, projecting power across the Indo-Pacific and pressuring India’s interests in the Indian Ocean.

India’s unease had only deepened, he said, with Pakistan’s recent acquisition of advanced, Chinese-built Hangor-class attack submarines. Eight are set to be delivered under a deal worth up to US$5 billion.