France and Germany are celebrating the 55th Anniversary of the Elysee Treaty, though not much discussed currently, this treaty was a symbol of extraordinary efforts by leaders of post-war France and Germany to create a European unification transcending centuries of adversary that was at the heart of all European conflicts. It came into effect after then-German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer and the French president Charles De Gaulle on January 22, 1963.
The treaty set in motion a series of processes that led to Germany and France consult bilaterally on many European matters of national and regional interests. One key element of the successful 
European integration was the ability of the two countries capabilities and political will to work together.
Today the two countries while celebrating the treaty, are encountering a sequence of events that have not just put the European Project at peril but has put every mechanism that was established by the liberal western political order towards achieving a smooth, global governance.
There are signs of the system ceasing up or being dismantled, especially by the United States led by the Trump administration.
The single biggest reason for global governance setback is the emergence of a domestic political polarisation in most parts of the world, especially in the democratic world that is led by political forces urging for national agendas and overhaul of internationalist policies that had powered and kept the global governance circuit running.
2018 is a year quite different from many years since 2001, last seventeen years have perpetually being dominated by the fear of global insecurity driven by terrorism, the first decade of the 21st Century it was Al Qaeda and last four years it was the Islamic State.
Come 2018, neither of these two so-called transnational terror groups remains in their formidable forms.
Thus 2018 is the first post-terrorism year of the 21st Century since 2001, yet more chaotic and unstable than any year of this century.The response to chaos comes in two forms, the first is the new conservative worldview coming from American foreign policy-making elite.
Donald Trump is part of the package but not the only key player since he was elected President. American conservatives had gained significant sway influencing White House policymaking. They have managed to increase American force projections globally, create a global fear psychosis, especially the threat of nuclear war.
The threat and fear of nuclear war, especially in Asia, had seen an unprecedented sale of all variants of missiles.
"Donald Trump is part of the package but not the only key player since he was elected President. American conservatives had gained significant sway influencing White House policymaking. They have managed to increase American force projections globally, create a global fear psychosis, especially the threat of nuclear war"
American defence companies especially the ones that develop interceptor missiles such as Raytheon has seen their stock values increase and profits surge. If a simple analysis of sales generated by Raytheon, for both cruise missiles and interceptors, namely Tomahawks and Patriots have seen an increased number of buyers ranging from the Czech Republic to UAE.
Thus this entire column could trace increase of missile sales over last year as symbolising a chaotic world.
While successfully increasing US arms sales globally, deploying more military assets across the Asia 
Pacific, Africa, Eastern Europe the United States sustained an ideological and financial battle against the United Nations.
The United Nations with all its setbacks and idiosyncrasies represent the one hope of the global system and the only functioning grand mechanism of global governance.
Trump has had many takedowns of the United Nations, out of which this tweet was particularly poignant of how he managed to convince many in the United States that it was not worth funding the UN. He claimed, “It is just a club for people to get together”.
Already United States have started systematically defunding many UN programmes that range from protecting migrants, protecting vulnerable populations such as Palestinians and withdrawing from UN bodies such as the UNESCO.
The double shocks of a more chaotic world that orbits around a weakened United Nations may not be the best equation given the current context.
Many International Relations analysts are showing signs of great concerns, there are worries of an impending financial crisis or a nuclear war in a world minus order that may lead to conflicts between numerous nations.
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2018 is the first post-terrorism year of the 21st Century since 2001, yet more chaotic and unstable than any year of this century
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The double shocks of a more chaotic world that orbits around a weakened United Nations may not be the best equation
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Sales generated by Raytheon, namely Tomahawks and Patriots have seen an increased number of buyers
Thus the situation this week with tensions running high between Turkey and Syria over Turkish plans to attack Kurdish targets in Afrin, Syria is a glimpse of what 2018 and beyond holds.
The sheer optimistic counter-argument to all negativities that manifest in global political and economic transformations is that they may lead to new constellations of responsible powers, who will try their best to bring stability and hope to the world. The recent election of Jacinda Ardern, as the Prime Minister of New Zealand, is seen as the potential of young leaders who are emerging globally capable of challenging conservative believes while giving people hope of a better future.
This column at the beginning referred to the anniversary that France and Germany are celebrating today, in September 2017 French President Macron delivered a speech at Sorbonne University, where he used the opportunity to provide a new view of Europe It was one of the most optimistic speeches given by a European leader that called for a rebuilding of Europe and its European identity on a grander scale. The speech was treated with ambivalence.
Macron is not the strongest of European leaders, he has always been seen in the shadow of Merkel, yet the speech did outline an ambitious plan to rebuild the European Union when most of contemporary domestic European politics is about dismantling it.
Macron underscored Europe’s existing weaknesses and stressed its security problem and implications of relying on the United States for too long. He argued, ‘at the beginning of the next decade, Europe needs to establish a common intervention force, a common defence budget and a common doctrine for action’.
Macron made use of the speech to refer to the Franco-German treaty of friendship and using it as a bedrock to shape the future of Europe, which was a conscious hint at the impending Brexit divorce and gradual American disengagement from Europe. The biggest challenge for Macron is that for all what he perceives to happen it needs strong German consensus. Unfortunately, since September 2017 German general elections, Chancellor Merkel is struggling to form a government.
Political analysts are sceptical of Merkel achieving a grand coalition of political parties to form the government and last few weeks many are calling Merkel the disappearing Chancellor as she has shied away from the public limelight. Germany was the indispensable nation in Europe if it weakens the idea of Europe that liberal elites such as Macron champion is in great peril. This will affect a network of global relationship Europe has established that ranges from its neighbours to bilateral relations with countries like India and China.
How would this affect Sri Lanka remains to be seen, the less global governance is at play it is more susceptible to small powers such as Sri Lanka to be dragged into emerging great power struggles. This is something that has already been discussed in this column several times. What we as a country should focus on is our human resources, not just in the context of a workforce and building an elite management and information class.
We could take lessons from how communities are fighting back the chaos by trying to unite on common issues such as sustainable development, environmental protection. What we lack is a proper outlet or forum for young leaders who can function as unifying forces. While we are battling in a local government election, what young leadership in Sri Lanka should realize is that the current global chaos if not mitigated will lead to a long winter, today’s youth will be the ultimate victims irrespective of their location, do they realize it or try even to address it in public forums remains a mystery.
The writer is the Director, Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS)
