By Tomoo Kikuchi and Yohei Tanaka
During this year’s G7 summit, Japan announced its vision of creating a liquefied natural gas (LNG) market to meet the increasing energy demand. Natural resource markets are a foundation for trade and economic development. What is less well known is the close link between the
natural resource markets and the currency markets.
LNG was first imported to Japan by the Tokyo Electric Power Company and Tokyo Gas in 1969. Since then, the market has grown substantially and financing large LNG projects has become possible. But the LNG market is much smaller and geographically dispersed than the crude oil market. Developing the market further requires a spot market and there are three main requirements that need to be overcome to make the most of this opportunity.
First, the storage capacity must grow. The storability of crude oil makes adjusting supply possible — essential for a spot market. Likewise, more LNG tanks must be built so that the supply can respond to price changes. It is commonly assumed that storing LNG is difficult due to extreme temperature requirements. But, just like crude oil, LNG storage is feasible if investment in suitable infrastructure is made.
Second, the producers and suppliers must be able to trade LNG. The clauses restricting destinations that can be delivered to should be abolished or at least made more flexible. Transportation infrastructure should also expand to allow for the changing demand.
Lastly, the financial institutions must provide liquidity to facilitate transactions and a means to hedge risks. The construction of an LNG production base requires large investments and most LNG trade is based on a long-term contract with the oil price as a benchmark. The involvement of major electricity and gas companies made financing big LNG-related investment possible. When the oil price was high, many new projects began. So the rising oil price was the major impetus for the expansion of the LNG production. But the expansion of the market calls for the creation of an LNG price index, which reflects demand and supply globally.
The companies dominating the oil industry predominantly use the US dollar and changing the trading currency would require an appropriate market for risk hedging. LNG sales contracts are linked with the oil price and have served the industry well as the US dollar and the oil price are negatively correlated, providing a natural hedge. But the current low oil price creates a huge gap between the future forecasts of sellers and buyers. Sellers typically anticipate the low price to continue but buyers do not. So contract negotiations based on the link to oil have become harder to conclude.
Delinking LNG from oil will be useful for new projects and will also result in delinking from the US dollar. Multiple currencies should be used since contractors and oil companies are exposed to foreign exchange risk from construction activities. If the revenue stream can be matched
with its underlying cost, risks can be further mitigated.
Natural gas is typically found in rural areas. To avoid the abundance of resources hindering industrial development — the so-called ‘resource curse’ — governments must solve problems associated with oligopoly and diversify the industrial base by global value chain upgrading. Such initiatives require large infrastructure projects with long life cycles and infrastructure finance is often a bottleneck for sustainable development.
For this reason, most countries welcome foreign capital. LNG exporters can secure the revenue flow for foreign loan repayment. Given that Japan, South Korea and China are the major LNG importers, the Japanese yen, South Korean won and Chinese yuan should play a bigger role in matching the demands for infrastructure investment and LNG trade.
US consumption has contributed to world economic growth for decades. But the US growth engine has relied on the reserve currency status of the US dollar and a current account deficit supported by US Treasury bond investors such as China, Japan and South Korea. As they transition to more consumption-driven economies and serve as a new engine of growth for the world economy, their currencies must also gain the reserve currency status.
Japan, China and South Korea have a common interest and responsibility to establish an LNG spot market to meet future energy demand. In doing so, they may also contribute to sustainable industrial development through infrastructure investment in many parts of the world and ensure future growth for the world economy.
(East Asia Forum)
(Tomoo Kikuchi is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Yohei Tanaka is an Assistant Manager at the America and Africa Project Division, INPEX, the Japan-based oil and gas exploration and
production company)
