Opinion

RUN MAHINDA RUN

02 Mar 2015 - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

rowd at Nugegoda is a mini take of 58 lakhs of votes Mahinda Rajapaksa obtained.

Frailty and fragility in Sirisena’s armory stand exposed.SLFP cannot hold a mammoth public meeting though President Sirisena heads the party and holds Presidential power.
Forfeiting party leadership and surrendering to Sirisena was a blessing in disguise, as Rajapaksa rid rubbish and transferred trash to Sirisena. Nevertheless, is weighted with an over burdened dustbin at home carried through a regime where janitorial facilities were sparse.
Without Mahinda Rajapaksa’s blessings UPFA vote cannot be marshaled into a single column. Puppets seated on the platform at Nugegoda needed a pump from Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) to become electable? Came by way of a message – to showwhere his loyalties sit. Sponsors of the meeting became heirs – objective was fulfilled.

Ask the throng at Nugegoda whether they jeered at corruption and poor governance? Will faint ignorance. Revellers of the past don’t care a hoot for misdemeanor, instead call for a bumper hamper before Christmas. Realists of the present want hard rock evidence, not loose allegations thrown in the air. Silly sleuths acted stupid under the Immigration Ordinance chasing Weerawansa’s wife instead of searching for prime offenders under the Bribery & Corruption Act; they look small.
Material emerging is too late, too slow, too little, and is far too weak. Substantial evidence, should reach masses that voted for MR, if a change of heart and mind is sought at general elections. Otherwise rollout any coloured carpet for Rajapaksa to tread: decorated as a national war hero - failed on governance and damned on corruption. Whither evidence?

Sound waves from Nugegoda set a tremor that shook SLFP headquarters: a stampede may result if members take flight in fright. Nugegoda bruised Chandrika Kumaratunga if she were to stake a claim for the SLFP (could she choreograph such attendance at Attanagalla?) and makes President Sirisena’s future dependent on the UNP while a desperate SLFP officialdom presents a case for a national government to justify survival.
Platform performers at the Nugegoda meeting, look ominously split on paper, displayed cordiality for public consumption presently and contradicted each other in public outpourings previously: not a concern, all are small- time captains minus men and machines.
Lineup holds elements pro- or anti- 13th Amendment, elements that love or hate Sinhala Buddhists, elements loyal from RAW to BBS (excluding ISIS), elements that are Marxist bent and greedy for the Yankee dollar. Except for a notorious few, most are true to their views notwithstanding disharmonized common ground amongst the participants.

UPFA voters know of one SLFP of one Mahinda Rajapaksa: not in two –partitioned or otherwise; team that emerges in front is the fraction that carries a name that evokes pride to the faithful. Worse, official SLFP is the ‘B’ team of the government – could soon become a decrepit name- board with an abandoned post

box. UNP does not want its list for parliament fouled with SLFP garbage.
UPFA MPs- lonely and unheeded, buried in newspapers for want of company and like vultures try to pick the most attractive option; intake is dependent on a one-man panel where preference is for sycophants and relatives.
Left alone MR may chose to remain an elder statesman than run for a lesser title in a contracting SLFP, locked in aboxof queer assortment–desirous to end his days’ as the leader of the opposition? The Run Mahinda Run call is making him don his running shoes to cover a distance at a painful pace!Marathon Man prefers the event postponed as his challengers are falling by the wayside.

Ranil Wickremesinghe knows the UNP better than the UNP knows itself, having long overstayed; corruption creeps early and popularity dips rapidly in a miscellaneous government.Go it alone and swiftly to gain a working majority is his agenda; neutered by the partners-in-disguise, Sirisena’s team whose desire is to hang long in parliament, enjoying privileges, return being doubtful,
Sirisena has no options –won, thanks primarily to UNP and minority votes- wedged behind Wickremasinghe and Rajapaksa on a popularity index, seeks an unavailed space and resides in no man’s land. In the south the contest is between Wickremasinghe’s UNP and a side in the making registered Team Rajapaksa.

Mahinda Rajapaksa was ahead of President Sirisena at the count in the south at the presidential election; votes in the north/east are not aggregated at a general election to impact the final result. Needs re-thinking since the presidential system carries value to the minorities. Their paltry vote in the north can disarray the heavyvoting pattern in the south. Those who want to demolish the presidential system may now pull back: those who did not want it dismantled might insist upon it. Both are on reverse gear after analysing results at the presidential election. Watch out! Politics is on a roller coaster.
South enjoys a democratic multi party system while north is comfortable with an authoritative structure and retains a mono party framework, ethnic in character. A vote in the north is worth its weight at a presidential election, since the winning candidate has to reach the 50 % mark where every vote counts for the final tally, wherever resident.Winner at the 2015 election was not the choice of the South but the near unanimous selection of the North.
It makes a decisive difference - by which the North can hold the southern leadership captive. UNP should not fall prey – otherwise await another long spell in the opposition.

North overwhelmingly votes in one way for one party or one candidate. Where the contest is close in the south or marginally tilted in favour of a candidate in the south (as at the 2015 elections)-vote in the north becomes pivotal to reverse the result of the south and determine the winner at a presidential election. Candidate with northern support is at an advantage at a close presidential election in a divided south. Difference is pronounced because it is a battle between multi-parties vs. a single party.
100-day government may seek an extension of time to implement its objectives. Ranil Wickremesinghe understands the matrix that any loss of popularity on the 50th day can grow six fold after 300 days. Constitutional changes need 2/3 majorities, which require the support of a substantial number of UPFA MPs’. An exercise where Sirisena’s guidance will be handy and agreeable MPs’ slotted to the UNP’s Parliamentary list for the support rendered. UPFA’s policy seeking the yellow peril without realising that as an economic hit man ‘China-man is always a China-man’ -making a fast buck by picking any pocket.
Instead we have fallen in to a side pocket of an exploiting India, treats USA as its favourite Uncle Sam.

Foreign policy determines the lifetime of a government, while the Foreign Ministry is a focal point that can make or mar a government. Look at the team that called the shots in the last government at the Foreign Ministry- don’t only blame the travel weary Minister resting at home! Think more of the man carrying a licence to trash ambassadors and remain unharmed.
Ranil Wickremesinghe is captive to please northern voters and TNA politicians for the favour done. Security concerns were overlooked with land released from the High Security Zone; pliable civil governor is in office; security forces have been reduced to the minimum; portfolio was offered to the TNA in the cabinet and the Navy is being questioned on disappearances.

Is there any reciprocity by the TNA for the friendly hand offered by the government?An Oliver Twist mentality in asking for more and more, while TNA makes allegations of genocide seeking international disapproval for a nation rid of terrorism.
Northern behaviour can contribute to the downfall of UNP. Last time it was the CFA and Norway: this time it may be TNA and India? A hostile North can unwittingly unite the south against the UNP.
Economy, Security and Welfare peak the needs of a Sri Lankan family. Rajapaksa government climaxed with the defeat of terrorism in 2009 and guaranteed personal security.
Present government peaked with a mini budget that enhanced the personal economy of the individual. From that zenith it has been one long slide down the mast slide. More at the receiving end: than at the accusing end. No result to show on the day fifty? Be fair give time to buy time.

Opinion

RUN MAHINDA RUN

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