Opinion

Even President seems to vote for UNP

19 Jul 2015 - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Bringing the SLFP under his grip, for a second time, Mahinda Rajapaksa has done the greatest injustice to the party

Finally, the president has spoken. And by renouncing the granting of nomination to his predecessor, the President has effectively disassociated himself from the election campaign of the UPFA/SLFP, of which he is the Chairman. He also said he would choose someone else over Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister should the UPFA win the election.

ccording to the Constitution, ‘the President shall appoint as the Prime Minster the Member of Parliament, who in his opinion is most likely to command the confidence of Parliament. In that sense, the choice is his discretion, however, should the SLFP Members of Parliament in a future SLFP government, insist on Mahinda Rajapaksa, and him alone, that would lead to a major political conflagration, which would end up in an impeachment motion of the President, presented by the MPs of his own party.
However, that possibility is fast diminishing, partly thanks to the President’s manoeuvring last week. His statement was a mortal blow to the SLFP/UPFA campaign. The Rajapaksa acolytes have all the right reasons to feel disappointed and even betrayed.
True that the momentum of January 8 had gradually been losing its metal in recent months amidst a cacophony of discordant voices (plus an allegation of a major Treasury bond fraud) and acrimonious fight back by the Rajapaksa camp.

However, the popular mandate of January 8 is still a potent force, obviously the only force that can overwhelm Mahinda Rajapaksa’s demagoguery. I say it is a potent force because the overwhelming majority of Sri Lankan voters are pragmatists, who are likely to be content with the gradual democratic transformation of the country since January 8. If they detest anything that unfolded since January, that is the destabilising ‘revolutionary’ changes in economy, mainly the halting of major infrastructure development projects, which caused, among other undesirable impacts, unemployment. The UNP will now find that it is those negative aspects of its economic performance (Plus the alleged fraud of treasury bonds) that would dent its achievements of the past six months.
Sri Lankan voters are pragmatists; they are generally conservative and not major risk takers. The majority Sinhalese electorate has come a long way since those zombified protests and revolutions of the JVP in the 80s. Therefore, it takes time for a momentum for political change to build in the Sri Lankan electorate.
Take for instance, the other instance in our recent history when a party that has been in power for too long was voted out: the UNP in 1994. The momentum for that began with the victory of the then Opposition, the PA at Western Provincial Council in the provincial council elections of 1993.
The UNP won the rest of provinces, outright, sans the Southern Province, which later became the battle ground against UNP’s high-handedness after it engineered a defection from the Opposition, which later came to be known as the infamous Fransico Saga.

The PA then won the snap polls in the Southern Province, and then, under Chandrika Kumaratunga went to win the General Elections in 1994 by a 4 per cent margin.
And finally when the momentum was set in, CBK won the Presidential Election in the same year in a landslide, winning 62 per cent of popular votes.
So, it took over a year for the initial momentum that the PA had in the Western Provincial Council in 1993 to reach its full potential.
What we saw on January 8 this year in Maithripala Sirisena’s election to Presidency was only the beginning of another momentum for political change. And Sirisena won by a mere 400, 000 votes.
And if history is any guide, that gap would be widening in the future elections in favour of the party that would best represent the ideas of January 8 mandate. Majority of voters go with the flow.
In the past, Rajapaksa himself benefitted from this voter behaviour; he won all local government and provincial polls (Barring the North-East) and Parliamentary elections throughout his two terms.

However, the movement that ushered Maithripala presidency was listless in recent times. When President Sirisena is also the Chairman of the SLFP, while his campaign promises are being carried out by a UNP- led minority government, such confusion is expected.
The average local voter is justifiably confused as to which one of the two main parties actually represented the values of the January 8 mandate.

In his speech to the nation, the president finally solved that conundrum. He implied (The best he could do given his role within the SLFP) that it was certainly not his own party, SLFP.
On the other hand, his speech last week was an indirect endorsement of the UNP.
He urged the public to elect people who were suitable to carry out the mandate of January 8 election, and not to vote thieves and racketeers into Parliament.
Unfortunately, his own party has shunned that mandate and returned to the grip of the Rajapaksa’s personality cult.
Take for instance the speakers at the UPFA’s maiden election rally held in Anuradhapura. The majority of them, Dinesh Gunawardane, Wimal Weerawansa and Vasudeva Nanayakkara were in the earlier campaign to nominate Rajapaksa as Prime Minister.
Adorned by massive cut-outs of the ex-President, the rally in Anuradhapura was a throwback to the series of pro-Rajapaksa rallies held earlier.
Those rallies as much as they were pro- Rajapaksa, were anti- Sirisena.

"Adorned by massive cut-outs of the ex-President, the rally in Anuradhapura was a throwback to the series of pro-Rajapaksa rallies held earlier. Those rallies as much as they were pro- Rajapaksa, were anti- Sirisena."

And those sentiments that have since been restrained for electoral reasons, did not always lie low in Anuradhapura. For instance, Tissa Vitharana sounded overly ludicrous when he told the crowds, that a future UPFA government would abolish the Executive Presidency.
Such a verbose is exceedingly disgusting when it emanated from the election platform of a man who shamelessly removed the mandatory two- term limits of the Presidency, dismantled independent commissions and turned his own party and the country into his familial fiefdom.
When the UPFA campaign sinks deeper into its self- made rot, the incorrigibility of its slogans would also deepen.
However, such a strategy is counterproductive at the national scale and over reliance on a highly polarising figure would lead the SLFP campaign nowhere. By hijacking the SLFP and replacing its diversity with his larger- than- life personality cult, Mahinda Rajapaksa has done the greatest injustice to the SLFP.
Distant comparison to him would be R. Premadasa in the UNP. However, the latter was faced with a revolt by the enlightened members of the party. Whereas rather than confronting the Rajapaksa cult, the SLFP heavyweights have sought refuge in it, believing, mistakenly though, that it is the only way out from its current troubles. But, that is a miscalculation. They will regret it one day.
The bottom line is that the momentum of the January 8 movement would build around the UNP, in particular and the anti- Rajapaksa camp, in general.
The President has done his part by helping putting the movement that elected him six months ago back on the track. One would expect that the UNP would not do something unbelievably stupid to upset this momentum.
As for now, it seems, even the SLFP Chairman has second thoughts about the integrity of his own party. Even, he could vote for the UNP, if Rajapaksa keeps spewing his demagoguery.

Opinion

Even President seems to vote for UNP

Bringing the SLFP under his grip, for a second time, Mahinda Rajapaksa has done the greatest injustice to the party

"Adorned by massive cut-outs of the ex-President, the rally in Anuradhapura was a throwback to the series of pro-Rajapaksa rallies held earlier. Those rallies as much as they were pro- Rajapaksa, were anti- Sirisena."

Follow Ranga Jayasuriya @RangaJayasuriya on twitter

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