The Attack on Iran and the Unravelling Global Order

Now our contemporary moment seems to be one where the crisis is aggravated at all four levels with little room for resolution. Class relations have been made worse by inequalities and dispossession arising from decades of neoliberal globalisation. Politics in most countries are swinging towards polarisation of communities with authoritarian populismon the rise, if not fascism

The Israeli attack on Iran is the most significant military development so far with the unravelling global order. This act of war by Israel on Iran is an escalation of the military conflagration in the Middle East. While Western hypocrisy on human rights has been exposed with the ongoing genocide in Gaza against the Palestinian people, the so-called Western liberal commitment to peace and stability is further exposed. Israel, backed by the West, has attacked Iran in the middle of negotiations between Iran and the United States. The idea of the global order itself is now up in flames. Human rights, international law, diplomacy and even stability have been rejected. Military might alone is now determining the positions and actions of the powerful states.

The harrowing violence and war are not only military and political conflicts between powerful nation states. Rather, they are the consequences of a crisis-prone global political economic system. Indeed, capitalism which forms the foundation of our contemporary political, social and economic system inevitably produces severe crises that are resolved only through tremendous violence and destruction. In different ways, Marxist thinkers have analysed the unsustainable character of capitalist accumulation and its brutal solutions. They have developed theories of global hegemony and imperialism. There can be periods of seeming stability when violence and exploitation are masked through global hegemony, or when consent tries to conceal coercion. But the sudden escalation of violence with wars represents the moment when the disguisefalls off and the brute determinants of force and imperialist aggression reveal themselves. 

In these volatile times with the tremendous violence unleashed on the Palestinian people and now spreading to others in the Middle East, we must first and foremost be in solidarity with the people under attack, particularly the Palestinian people. Our government has done little on that front, for any genuine solidarity with the Palestinian people should begin with a complete boycott of Israel. More generally, the unravelling global order did not begin last week. I would argue that its most significant signal was the global financial crisis of 2008. But recognition is better late than never. Even at this late stage, a small state like ours should awake and chart an alternative political economic trajectory based on self-sufficiency and delinking.

Hegemony and military relations

I have often found the powerful Italian Marxist thinker Antonio Gramsci’s writings to be insightful to understanding moments of crisis and how order is created. He developed a powerful concept called hegemony to analyse this dynamic process. Many of Gramsci’s insightful writings were written after the regime of Benito Mussolini imprisoned him. Fascism was on the rise across Europe with its colonial possessions. In many ways, that moment of the 1930s is reminiscent of what we are going through now in the 2020s.  I quote below Gramsci’s analysis on the workings of the political economic system and how crisis and order work at four levels:

“These levels range from the relations between international forces (one would insert here the notes written on what a great power is, on the combinations of States in hegemonic systems, and hence on the concept of independence and sovereignty as far as small and medium powers are concerned) to the objective relations within society – in other words, the degree of development of productiveforces; to relations of political force and those between parties (hegemonic systems within the State); and to immediate (or potential military) political relations.” –Antonio Gramsci, Prison Notebooks

Gramsci’s analysis as reflected here illustrates the complex relationship and dynamics between hegemonic powers, local social processes, national politics and militarised resolutions. He identifies four levels of relations of forces: (1) international relations between hegemonic powers and small states guarding their sovereignty, (2) relations of social forces or the class question, (3) relations of political forces or the state including political parties, and (4) relations of military forces resolved through wars and insurrections. For Gramsci, each of these four levels of relations impinge on each other and are subject to the historical situations and conjunctural shifts that lead to a certain equilibrium in the overall relations of forces.In other words, stability in the global political economic system – regardless of how unfair, unequal and exploitative – is created through relations at these four levels. In other words, global hegemony involves a resolution of crises at these four levels to ensure global leadership backed by force. 

Now our contemporary moment seems to be one where the crisis is aggravated at all four levels with little room for resolution. Class relations have been made worse by inequalities and dispossession arising from decades of neoliberal globalisation. Politics in most countries are swinging towards polarisation of communities with authoritarian populism on the rise, if not fascism. The political sovereignty of smaller states is being undermined by large powers focused on extraction of strategic assets and resources. Unrestrained military conflicts and wars are emerging with few avenues for resolution. 

These are the signs of an unravelling global order. The US Empire, which had provided leadership to the West and the capitalist system, is itself now coming apart including with domestic convulsions. Empires rarely go gently into the night. The unravelling of the British Empire saw two World Wars and the Great Depression. And it is that kind of destruction that forebodes our near future.

What is to be done?

In these troubling times, what should Sri Lanka do? We have not come out of the economic crisis that brought the NPP government to power. In fact, the straightjacket of the IMF programme has constrained our country from recovering through the imposition of austerity. In previous columns, I have argued that the 2022 economic crisis was caused by problems originating in the external sector, including rising debt payments, falling foreign earnings, and continued luxury imports. The recent developments from Trump’s trade shock to the wars in the Middle East are now going to aggravate the economic situation. 

Sri Lanka’s foreign earnings over the last few decades have mainly come from exports of tea and garments, tourism, and migrant worker remittances. Sri Lanka’s foreign currency expenditure in recent times has been mainly for foreign debt payments, the import of essentials like oil, the price of which tends to fluctuate, and other imports that could be substituted through local production. The Trump trade shock has already undermined garment exports. Now, the destabilisation of the Middle East with war may well lead to a drop in migrant worker remittances and even a reduction in tourism. They are both seen as low hanging fruit by the current Government to boost foreign earnings. Furthermore, if the war escalates, there is likely to be a rise in the global price of oil which could further put pressures on our foreign reserves. All this could lead to another round of balance of payment problems.

In this context, the Government needs to rethink its reliance on the fickle tourism sector as a future strategy of foreign earnings. It must immediately launch a different set of development policies with self-sufficiency at its core. What we can produce locally will save valuable foreign currency. And when it comes to the local production of food and other essentials it will ensure the basic needs of our people are still met during a time of tremendous global instability. In the medium term, we should consider a strategy of delinking from dependence on a global system that prioritises extraction through finance. Instead, we should work with smaller states like ours for trade and investment, while developing our own internal markets and demand through policies of redistribution.

We are in unprecedented times, and I argue that it is through policies of self-sufficiency and delinking that we can protect our sovereignty and ensure the sustainability of our economy. Even as we watch the great unravelling of the global order, we must also stay vigilant against the incubation of fascist forces within our country. It is during such a moment in the 1930s that fascism reared its head all over the world. The Israeli attack on Iran, as much as the other forms of external aggression that are appearing abroad, may appear far away. But their effects are likely to be felt in Sri Lanka not only economically but on a deeper societal level. They signal a world that is becoming more violent and cruel in a way that can be directed towards internal ‘others’, including communities marginalised based on caste, gender, and ethnicity. Protecting ourselves requires a complete change in the economic paradigm. Otherwise, the sense of relief that came with the rise of NPP late last year may be at risk. The Government should immediately get to work on shifting the economic trajectory.