How seismic shift in Tamil Nadu politics matter Sri Lanka

Vijay’s rise in Tamil Nadu politics is reminiscent of one of another actor- turned- politician, late chief minister M.G.Ramachandran in 1977

Two-year-old party, TVK led by actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay shatters decades-old duopoly in state politics

The old guard, the communist Party in Kerala, had lost to the Congress-led opposition alliance

In West Bengal, the Narendra Modi’s BJP unseated the long-standing ruling party, TMC of chief minister Mamata Benerjee in power since 2011. Elsewhere, the BJP-led alliance has retained power in Asam and the Union territory of Puducherry. The elections reaffirm what had already been seen elsewhere in India Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party had long since been breaking out from its traditional strongholds, consolidating power in states

Vijay matters for Sri Lanka for different reasons. Any shift in political power in Tamil Nadu should be watched carefully by Colombo. Another actor turned politician M.G.Ramachandran was the main patron of the Tamil militancy which led to a quarter century of war in the North and the East. The rise of Vijay is more of a stamp of Dravidian nationalism in Gen Z- Tamil Nadu form

India has just concluded a shock election season. With the counting drawing to a close, the biggest shocker of all, subject to interpretation, comes from Tamil Nadu, where a two-year-old party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) led by actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay had shattered decades-old duopoly in state politics, and is set to govern the state for the next five years. Other results are no less shocking. Of the four states and one union territory that went to elections, the old guard, the communist Party in Kerala, had lost to the Congress-led opposition alliance.  In West Bengal, the Narendra Modi’s BJP unseated the long-standing ruling party, TMC of chief minister Mamata Benerjee in power since 2011. Elsewhere, the BJP-led alliance has retained power in Asam and the Union territory of Puducherry.

The elections reaffirm what had already been seen elsewhere in India. Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party had long since been breaking out from its traditional strongholds, consolidating power in states which had until recently treated the BJP and Hindutva ideology as anathema. With the latest election gains included, the BJP now directly rules 16 out of 28 states and 8 union territories of India.  Together with its allies of the National Democratic Alliance, the BJP controls a total of 20 states and union territories. The BJP’s inroads to West Bengal, where it never had a foothold signal an accelerated push, similar to as seen in Odisha, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh in the previous cycle of state elections.

Still, the Southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu continue to be outliers for BJP influence.

Immediate concern of Colombo

It is hard to pinpoint a single catalyst for the recent election shocks, except a persistent anti-incumbency fatigue, which strangely enough seemed to be more prevalent in the non-BJP-run states. Interestingly enough, all these states, where the incumbency had lost, are relatively well governed.  M.K. Stalin-led DMK in Tamil Nadu ushered an era of economic growth. The Tamil Nadu economy grew at an annualised rate of over 11 per cent in 2025, recording the first double-digit growth in 14 years. Kerala was hailed as eradicating extreme poverty across the state, a unique feat considering India’s freewheeling inequality, which has hollowed out its growth story.  West Bengal itself recorded over 7 per cent economic growth, above India’s national average. 

Shift in political power in Tamil Nadu would be of immediate concern of Colombo. Vijay’s rise in Tamil Nadu politics is reminiscent of one of another actor- turned- politician, late chief minister M.G.Ramachandran in 1977.  TVK, barely two years old, had swept the Tamil Nadu polls, securing 108 seats. That leaves it  ten seats short of 118 seat majority in 234 -seat- Tamil Nadu assembly, requiring Vijay to reach out to other minor regional parties. The Congress has already offered to talk.

What drove the electorate to an untested actor could be Tamil Nadu speciality, which has a history of film stars elevated to gods and politicians. 

The outgoing Stalin extended generous freebies which both the BJP and Vijay’s TVK itself criticised, only to rollout in its manifesto, which include, among others, eight grams of gold and a silk saree for brides, six free gas cylinders for year and INR 2500 monthly allowance for women homemakers.

Vijay matters for Sri Lanka for different reasons. Any shift in political power in Tamil Nadu should be watched carefully by Colombo. Another actor turned politician M.G.Ramachandran was the main patron of the Tamil militancy which led to a quarter century of war in the North and the East.

The rise of Vijay is more of a stamp of Dravidian nationalism in Gen Z- Tamil Nadu form. It might not have much substance, but the rhetoric themselves could be destabilising.

 Talapathy Vijay previously made headline when he proposed in 2025 to retake Kachchethivu island, ceded to Sri lanka in the 1970s. Same concerns had also aired by the then incumbent DMK, though much of that was aimed at domestic audience. Previously in 2024, TVK in its party convention passed a resolution calling for independence referendum for ‘Eelam Tamils” in Sri Lanka. Vijay was also on record as saying Prabakaran ‘showed Tamils motherly love’ to Sri Lankan Tamils.

While state politics could have little sway over foreign policy in India, which the prerogative of the Centre, a shift in aggravated anti-Sri Lankan posture should be watched carefully by the policy makers in Colombo.

Namal Rajapaksa has congratulated Vijay on his victory. It would help the government in Colombo to open a channel of communication with Tamil Nadu state government in matters of mutual interest, while not appearing to override New Delhi’s control over the foreign policy.

In most likelihood, the political shift in Tamil Nadu has now led the state, well governed so far, into uncharted waters, steered by an untested film actor, who would have to replicate the economic progress of his successor. That would be a daunting task. In the meantime, Colombo should watch over that the seismic changes in Tamil Nadu politics would not light the fuse of another conflict in the North of Sri Lanka.

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