Weather predictions cannot be made two weeks before - Meteorologists Assn.

• Since Sri Lanka is an island nation which is surrounded by seas, and frequent atmospheric changes, this makes forecasting a complex task

By Yohan Perera

Although there are claims that the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted Cyclone Ditwah on November 13, no methodology has been discovered in the world to make such weather predictions two weeks before, Sri Lanka Association of Meteorologists (SLAM) said yesterday.   

“Ditwah was special due to number of reasons. It was converted into a cyclonic storm from a low pressure system within 12 hours. Rapid intensifying cyclonic storms have increased over the world due to global warming. This development has been observed in the Bay of Bengal as well lately. Another factor which makes Ditwah special was that it did not get weakened while moving from Potuvil towards inland. It is warm sea water which adds strength to a cyclonic storm. A cyclonic storm gets weakened when it reaches inland due to this reason. However, Ditwah moved over inland but parallel to the sea without becoming weak. This was a rare situation. It caused a heavy rainfall as it was travelling in a slow phase,” the association said in a statement.   

“Since Sri Lanka is an island nation which is surrounded by seas, and frequent atmospheric changes, this makes forecasting a complex task. Hazards created by human beings and global warming makes things more complex,” the statement added.   

“Cyclonic storms occur frequently within the month of November as per available data. There were three different developments of weather during the month of November this year above the seas of Bay of Bengal. The first one was developed into a low pressure system. The other two were identified as Senyar while the other was Ditwah, Both developed into cyclonic storms. Ditwah caused havoc to Sri Lanka in the recent past,” it was also said.