Pakistan’s endless monsoon crisis: Is it prepared this time?

Alarm bells are ringing once again, and it is hoped that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government is listening. On July 10, the National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC) of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issued a weather alert warning that moderate to heavy monsoon rains would affect multiple regions from July 13.

In Pakistan, monsoon rains routinely trigger deadly floods, landslides, and mass displacement, particularly in vulnerable, poorly drained, or densely populated areas. The NEOC has urged citizens to take precautionary measures, but memories of the catastrophic 2022 floods when damage worth $10 billion was inflicted and more than 33 million people were affected remain painfully fresh. 

The NDMA has already cautioned that the 2026 monsoon could bring 22–26 percent more rainfall than last year, a sobering forecast given the devastation of recent seasons.The advisory is a reminder of how Pakistan faces escalating climate extremes, where each year brings a new ‘record’ of loss and disruption. In 2022, glacial melt combined with record monsoon rains to produce unprecedented flooding. In 2024, stalled monsoon systems unleashed days of downpour, again leaving destruction in their wake. In 2025 flash floods in the northern areas caused unprecedented destruction; houses were reduced to rubble, shops were filled with six- to seven-feet mud carried down by the fast-flowing water, cars were floating and acres and acres of millet crop fields were flooded. This year, NDMA disclosed that 3.1 million people had to be relocated to safety, underscoring both the scale of the threat and the fragility of Pakistan’s disaster‑management architecture.

Disaster management cannot begin once floodwaters arrive. Pakistan enters another monsoon season with little room for complacency. Last year’s rains claimed more than 1,000 lives, destroyed homes, roads, and bridges, damaged crops, and cut off communities. Gilgit‑Baltistan endured glacial lake outburst floods, while Punjab, KP, Sindh, and Balochistan suffered heavy losses from intense showers. Beyond infrastructure, livelihoods were disrupted and already stretched public resources came under immense pressure. Despite these recurring disasters, Pakistan continues to rely too heavily on emergency relief rather than sustained preparedness.

Pakistan’s fiscal response has long been shaped by ad hoc surcharges and relief funds. The so‑called “cyclone surcharge,” now a Rs1.55 trillion instrument misclassified as non‑tax revenue, exemplifies this. Since 1992, successive governments have deployed relief fund models that escape parliamentary scrutiny, judicial challenge, and NFC distribution requirements. Nawaz Sharif’s government first activated the prime minister’s relief fund after floods; Benazir Bhutto followed suit in 1994; and every government since 2010 has repeated the pattern.

The 2010 floods affected 20 million people and caused $43 billion in damages. The government announced a flood relief surcharge projecting Rs40 billion, collected it, and absorbed it into the federal consolidated fund while negotiating IMF targets. After the 2022 floods, the government quietly renamed its super tax: Section 4B, meant for displaced persons, became Section 4C, a super tax on high earners. The humanitarian justification was dropped without explanation. Three decades of federal plans have passed without a single rupee ring‑fenced for disaster resilience.

Pakistan’s monsoon is vital for agriculture, but climate change has made it erratic, unpredictable, and deadly. Erratic weather patterns, extreme heat, and floods have disrupted access to medication, especially in rural areas. Post‑flood conditions breed mosquitoes, driving malaria and dengue outbreaks, while contaminated water spreads disease.

International agencies such as the World Bank, UNESCO, and UNDP have pledged support for disaster preparedness and early‑warning systems. Yet experts remain skeptical about whether these pledges will translate into tangible relief for vulnerable communities. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has endorsed a five‑year flood preparedness plan, a significant step in a country where no relief fund has ever been legally secured. In May, he ordered authorities to strengthen monsoon readiness. But decisions must be translated into action. Pakistan cannot prevent every flood or landslide, but it can reduce loss of life and property if preparedness becomes a year‑round priority rather than a seasonal ritual.

But political urgency is rarely matched by administrative discipline. Pakistan has long suffered from a cycle in which plans are drafted, alerts issued, meetings convened and yet the same communities drown each year because enforcement collapses at provincial and district levels. The proposed meeting of the National Water Council must go beyond symbolism, addressing land use, river management, water governance, and resource allocation. With climate‑driven hazards intensifying, the margin for complacency has evaporated. Embankments must be strengthened before rivers swell, relief supplies pre-positioned before roads wash out, and local disaster committees empowered before the first cloudburst.

The Met Office has, meanwhile, forecast above-normal rainfall this monsoon, warning of landslides in the northern regions and urban flooding in major cities. It has also cautioned that strong winds could damage electricity infrastructure, solar panels, trees and billboards.

Urban centres too must prepare. Cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Peshawar can no longer afford dysfunctional drainage, unchecked construction, and seasonal firefighting.

The early warnings for 2026 offer Pakistan an unusual gift: time. Squandering this opportunity would be unforgivable. In recent years, heavy rains in urban centres have killed scores and cost billions because storm water had nowhere to go. Karachi still lacks funds to clear its 586 drains, most of which remain choked with sludge. Islamabad’s G‑10, F‑10, and I‑9 drains are stuffed with waste that will burst into streets once it rains. Hyderabad officials have conceded that key drains are blocked. The water resources minister’s “immediate clearance” directive reflects poor planning despite repeated past experiences.

Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, with limited resources for adaptation. Flash floods have become an annual recurrence from June to September, driven by heavy monsoon rains and rapidly melting glaciers. Last year, unprecedented floods devastated Buner, Swat, Shangla, Mansehra, and Muzaffarabad. Thirty‑seven villages across Gilgit‑Baltistan were declared ‘calamity‑hit.’ Visuals showed monstrous rivers sweeping away bazaars and villages alike.

Monsoons may be an act of nature, but the flooding that follows is an act of neglect. Pakistan’s citizens cannot continue to pay for that neglect year after year. Without better regulation of construction and sewer maintenance, annual downpours will continue to kill hundreds and destroy livelihoods. Experts warn that unless preparedness becomes systemic, Pakistan’s endless monsoon crisis will remain a grim cycle of warnings ignored and disasters repeated.