Sri Lanka on the edge

By Champika Fernando in Abu Dhabi

Sri Lanka may be sitting pretty at the top of Group B with four points, but their place in the Super Four of the Asia Cup is far from secure. Their scrappy win over Hong Kong China has left questions unanswered, and as they meet Afghanistan in Abu Dhabi today, the equation is clear. Win and they qualify, lose and they will be left sweating on the net run rate.

Sri Lanka currently have four points from two matches and a net run rate of +1.546. Bangladesh, already finished with their fixtures, also have four points but their run rate sits at –0.270. Afghanistan are third with two points, though their superior figure of +2.150 gives them the best rate of the group.

If Sri Lanka win, they will join Bangladesh in the next stage. If Afghanistan win, they will qualify regardless of the margin. The real danger for Sri Lanka comes in defeat. Should Afghanistan bat first and win by 65 runs or more, it would be Bangladesh who go through alongside them. If Afghanistan chase, Sri Lanka will only fall behind Bangladesh if their opponents reach the target with 50 balls to spare.

The pitch in Abu Dhabi has already shown signs that spinners will dominate. In Tuesday’s meeting between Bangladesh and Afghanistan, the slow bowlers decided the contest. Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad returned combined figures of four wickets for 49 runs in eight overs, choking Bangladesh during the middle phase.

Bangladesh’s spinners were just as effective. Nasum Ahmed and Rishad Hossain claimed four wickets for only 29 runs, with Ahmed producing a standout spell of two for 11.

It means Sri Lanka may look to freshen up their attack. Maheesh Theekshana has struggled for impact and there is every chance that left-arm spinner Dunith Wellalage could come into the side. The youngster’s ability to tie up an end and offer variety would be useful against Afghanistan’s heavy hitters.

The bigger concern, however, lies with the batting. Against Hong Kong China, a chase of 150 turned into an awkward struggle. Pathum Nissanka continued his fine form with a calm half century, but the middle order once again failed to provide stability. In the end, Shanaka and Wanindu Hasaranga had to step in to finish the job.

That kind of collapse cannot be repeated against a bowling attack that combines the guile of Rashid and Noor with seamers who make early use of the new ball. The top and middle order must do more to ensure they are not walking into trouble when the spinners come on.

Form is also an issue for captain Charith Asalanka. He has managed only 47 runs in his last eight innings at an average of 9.40. His strike rate has dipped below 100 and those figures weigh heavily on a side that already struggles for consistency. The team will be hoping he rediscovers his touch just when it matters most.

Afghanistan know their task is simple. Victory guarantees progress to the Super Four and their confidence rests in the balance of their side. Their spinners are in top form, the seamers offer variety, and their batting, while sometimes inconsistent, has enough firepower to hurt Sri Lanka.

Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran provide aggression at the top of the order, while Gulbadin Naib, Azmatullah Omarzai and Mohammad Nabi add experience and stability through the middle. Against Bangladesh it was a lack of composure that proved costly. Against Sri Lanka they will want to make no such mistake.

By tonight, the group will be settled. For Sri Lanka, the task is simple but far from easy. For Afghanistan, it is an opportunity to underline their growing stature. For Bangladesh, it is a nervous wait to see if results fall in their favour.