Opinion

Election: mid-term report of the melee : Unrecognisable candidates are doing ‘hakas’ on the election

29 Jul 2015 - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Candidates made up, with make up, show pretty faces, virtually unrecognisable from their harassed appearances. Trick photography using Photoshop makes them look younger and leaner. Strapped across their bodies sans rugby jerseys are their numbers when doing a localised Haka from an [election] platform.
Will the government and the Opposition extract votes they collected at the presidential elections held 10 months ago? If so, the result is foreknown but the emerging picture is more byzantine - campaigns geared for ‘manape’ contests do not excite voters. Worse, it is the same old disreputable names recycled in vintage bottles.

Turn out would be lower than previously if political parties provide undesirables to voters to select, an insult to their intelligence. Don’t take the voter for a sucker –if hurt, retribution will be harsh. Rajapaksa suffered the first dose of that awful concoction: The UNP had tasted many more.

If the polling stations register a low slow-poll on the morning of the elections, Rajapaksa could sense a yellow card drawn against him. If an aggressive poll materialises in the first three hours, it would mean that Mahinda is playing referee armed with a red card to throw at foul play. If the polling is regular it is a close election. (This is an alternate homemade-exit poll formula used by public servants at polling booths).

Watch for early returns of the postal vote. If early results disclose a close call at the postal vote; so it will be at the final count. Earlier, that vote was overwhelmingly for Rajapaksa but now it is more evenly distributed. Will this trend continue? Ordinary state employees vote with the government in power but a swing in the country will show if there is an anti or pro movement among public servants.

Previously, Mahinda carried the vote with the helping hand of his ‘Majesty’s Services’ that were over worked over time. This time he doesn’t have the same privilege. Mahinda comes from a fractured party with dubious backers and decayed horsemen enjoying state patronage.

Can a motivated campaign inspire people to carry Rajapaksa way beyond? Crowds at his meetings, stimulated bunches, do not run deep outside captive audiences. Rajapaksa’s weakness primed the moment when his motley crowd of candidates’ names surfaced.National list members have risen, as if from the dead. It carries many rejected parliamentarians and feather weight intellects known for spinning yarns to put Mahinda to sleep. New faces have affinity to the discredited old. Rajapaksa has supportive people at ground level because of the war victory but they remain dormant with a refusal to align with the candidates named.

Ranil cannot attract Sirisena’s vote bank that is grievously splintered with many pecking for a share of it. The JVP is running on its own. Fonseka is carrying his negligible few but that few can make a difference.The northern vote does not get aggregated at the national count and stops its progress at district level unlike at the presidential election. Tamils in the South have formed mushroom parties and will pick a share of the vote for keeps. The JHU is fatally discredited and for survival depends on the UNP to gain respectability having forfeited the Sinhala Buddhist vote with its double talk.

Sirisena, the pin- up boy of the past, is now a lost man. Remember it is the North that brought Sirisena to his glory and that vote will not be counted beyond the district. With a limited vote to attract, the UNP reaches the near maximum on Sirisena’s aggregate. The UNP national list also contains a share of Mahinda’s hidden loyalists in deceptive green caps.

This leaves a large float vote idling. Mahinda’s campaign is not attracting the vote that floated away from him. But, the governance of the UNP, which is its own worse enemy, is pushing it towards Rajapaksa, just as Mahinda’s candidates are standing in the way of anchoring dissatisfied youth with the UPFA.
If the UNP is to win it has to hold on to the Facebook’s under - 35 vote that Sirisena acquired without much sweat. That vote is not static but the slippage is yet not coming in hordes because the UPFA campaign targets the ‘manape’ vote ignoring the impressionable new youth vote in urban quarters. If the UNP loses a substantial share of the urban middle-class youth vote at the upcoming elections, it can occupy the opposition office again because many other groups seeking the ‘good governance’ vote are pointing fingers at the UNP for its ineptitude.

If the Colombo count becomes close; families and friends of these fringe ‘good governance’ groups can make the difference. Colombo, so far, is secure for the UNP but that is not good enough to win comprehensively as the rural vote is swinging against them except in Kandy and marginally in Puttalam and Badulla.

Badulla district, a traditional UNP home, is the place to watch.

A few months ago when Sirisena won, Badulla bordered by pro-UNP Nuwara Eliya and pro- UPFA Moneragala, went with Sirisena picking a wafer-thin majority of 261 votes. Rajapaksa won only three of the nine constituencies namely Mahiyanganaya, Wiyaluwa and Uva Paranagama.

Looks easy for Rajapaksa on paper in 2015 with the JVP and Fonseka in the field. They collected at the 2014 Pradesheeya Sabha elections respectively 20,625 and 4835 votes in Badulla district which the UPFA won with a majority of 11348 votes. It reveals that the JVP and Fonseka votes count in Badulla.
This time the UNP will clean the Indian Tamil vote with Thondaman loosing ground at the estate wage negotiations. But that vote is insufficient to register a win. It is the swing electorates of Welimada and Bandarawela that will decide the outcome to determine the winner of the critical Badulla district.

However economic issues are more likely to take over. Falling prices for tea and rubber for small holders, with no guaranteed prices for the purchase of rice and other crops,denial of employment prospects in projects and construction and road activity are at a standstill while the cost of living rising sky high makes it fortunate being in the Opposition.

The ‘Bid & Buy’ process of the elected representatives commences with the release of the election results. Election campaigns are financial windfalls for candidates of the major parties because black money gets into circulation in bulk from the vaults of ‘blue chip’ houses and secret drawers of the wheeler - dealers. A photo finish at the end of the contest is where the party whip loses control of its winners when like a bungee jump it’s bonus time for the winning candidates. Will the Yankee dollar outsmart the Chinese Yuan or will the Indian Rupee hold sway to lasso MPs of doubtful pedigrees? Local currency is candy- floss compared to supplies from Embassy Street.

The final result is not contrived by voters but by the weight of hefty war chests provided by alien powers. Elections are democratic thus far and no further. And the Election Commissioner becomes a passive spectator.

Sirisena is safer with Ranil to whom he owes for propelling him to his present position. If Rajapaksa wins and is not given due recognition, Parliament has the power to make financial cuts to make a President smaller in stature than the 19th Amendment envisaged.

The silver line is in having a stable government after heavy traffic is acquired from the losing side but it would not last long in an environment where governments are compelled to last four- and- a- half years according to the 19th Amendment.

J.R.Jayewardane strove to make his government stable; but his heirs strove to make it weak. So, who will benefit…the opposition?

Opinion

Election: mid-term report of the melee : Unrecognisable candidates are doing ‘hakas’ on the election

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