Unravelling the aftermath: China’s One-Child Policy and Its lasting demographic impact

A video recently went viral across major platforms in China, showing a Chinese official berating a young man for not having children. At first glance, the clip may seem like a comedic skit, but it highlights a deeper issue: the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has begun setting up birth encouragement offices nationwide. These offices are repurposed from former family planning offices and now pressure citizens to have more children. China's policy has shifted from strict family planning to birth encouragement.

Recent data released in January 2025 reveals that the population aged 60 and over in China has reached 310.31 million—just under a quarter of the population—an increase from nearly 297 million in 2023. The negative effects of China’s family planning policies are becoming more apparent. The workforce has sharply declined, and an aging society is arriving faster than expected. Despite various pro-birth policies introduced by the CCP, the results have been minimal.

China’s one-child policy, which lasted from 1980 to 2015, significantly shaped the nation’s demographics. While it effectively curbed population growth—preventing an estimated 400 million births—it also led to an aging population and a skewed gender ratio, challenges that continue to affect China. The policy's long-term consequences were complex. By limiting family size, resources were better allocated, contributing to China's economic boom as families invested more in their child’s education, creating a more skilled workforce.

The enforcement of the one-child policy involved strict and often coercive measures, such as mandatory contraception, fines, and, in some cases, forced abortions and sterilizations. These actions raised significant human rights concerns both domestically and internationally. The policy’s harsh implementation left profound social and ethical implications.

One of the most significant impacts of the one-child policy was the "demographic dividend" that China enjoyed for several decades. With a disproportionately large working-age population compared to dependents, China experienced impressive economic growth. However, this demographic advantage is now fading. From 2010 to 2020, the proportion of people over 65 rose from 8.9% to 13.5%, and the birth rate has dropped to 1.3, well below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1. China is no longer benefiting from the demographic dividend, and the aging population is leading to increased dependency ratios and potential labor shortages.

The one-child policy also led to the “4-2-1” phenomenon, where one child supports two parents and four grandparents, placing a strain on social services and the economy. In China, pension and healthcare systems are inconsistent, with adult children often serving as the primary safety net for aging parents. This dynamic has contributed to rising mental health issues among the younger generation, and by 2010, it was estimated that 1 million Chinese families had lost their only child, leaving them with an uncertain future.

Additionally, a cultural preference for male children exacerbated the gender imbalance, leading to a significant surplus of men and related social issues, including a rising number of unmarried men.

In her 2024 book *The Cry of the Silkworm*, Chinese-Australian-Pakistani author Shi Naseer recounts the harsh realities of growing up under the one-child policy in rural China. She describes how female infanticides surged because families preferred sons. She writes, "Women faced government-enforced abortion and sterilization. In extreme cases, ‘uncooperative’ women were forced to abort, even in the ninth month of pregnancy."

The direct consequences of the one-child policy include an aging population, declining birth rates, and a shrinking workforce. These factors are challenging China’s ability to maintain its productivity and economic growth. Labor shortages in key sectors are already affecting the country’s long-term economic prospects.

Recognizing the adverse effects, the Chinese government has gradually relaxed its policies. Since 2016, China shifted from a one-child to a two-child policy, and in 2021, the limit was further relaxed to three children per family. These changes have been accompanied by tax cuts, subsidies, and other incentives, alongside propaganda promoting the value of having more children. However, the birth rate has continued to fall, as many young people face economic pressures and lifestyle preferences that discourage childbearing.

Young Chinese people are increasingly reluctant to marry, have children, or even date, citing financial constraints and career concerns. According to a 2022 survey by the job search site Zhilian Zhaopin, only 0.8% of professional women expressed a desire to have three children. The total fertility rate has plummeted from 2.6 in the late 1980s to just 1.15 in 2021. Projections suggest that China’s population may have declined in 2022 for the first time since the Great Famine of 1959-1961, and over just a decade, from 2013 to 2023, the country’s population growth has halved.

The sharp decline in population is a direct consequence of the CCP’s decades-long family planning policies. However, instead of acknowledging responsibility, some officials have deflected blame. In 2023, Zhao Baige, deputy director of China’s National Health Commission, claimed that family planning was never enforced through coercion, but rather "voluntary guidance" through education, economic means, and legal regulations. Her statement sparked outrage, with many accusing her of rewriting history and misrepresenting the reality of the one-child policy.

To address the declining birth rate, the CCP has implemented a variety of measures to encourage childbearing, including incentives, propaganda, and social pressure. Many people have taken to social media to complain about persistent phone calls from neighborhood committees urging them to have children, even shortly after marriage. One person remarked, "How ironic—before the 1990s, these Family Planning offices were like gangs storming into homes to arrest pregnant women. Now they’re calling to check on us."

For young people who lived through the harsh enforcement of the one-child policy, the CCP’s reversal of its stance feels surreal. In the past, those who had more than one child faced severe penalties, and unmarried individuals over 30 could even be sent for "re-education." Now, the CCP pressures young people to bear children, framing those who choose not to as “sinners.”

It’s projected that China’s population decline will continue, with people over 60 expected to make up nearly a third of the population by 2035, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. Despite the CCP’s ongoing efforts, it remains unclear whether these measures will be enough to reverse the demographic decline. (Vaishali Basu Sharma)

The author is an analyst on geopolitical and macroeconomic issues