Climate crisis exposes Pakistan’s weak preparedness, Report warns

As policymakers gather in Islamabad for the Breathe Pakistan International Climate Change Conference over May 6 and 7, the urgency of the climate challenge is undeniable. Yet beneath the speeches and symbolic gestures lies a harsher truth: Pakistan remains dangerously unprepared to cope with the consequences of climate change. The conference to be held at the Serena Hotel’s Sheesh Mahal Hall, is framed as a national mobilisation for sustainability, but the realities on the ground reveal decades of neglect, weak governance, and systemic fragility that no single event can mask.

The latest Jinnah Institute report on climate resilience underscores this gap. Pakistan continues to react to disasters rather than prepare for them. The catastrophic floods of 2025 displaced millions, destroyed livelihoods, and exposed the fragility of early warning systems, fragmented governance, and the steady erosion of natural buffers. One year later, the outlook is no less grim. Heatwaves have arrived early, drought risks are rising, and water stress is worsening. Rivers are polluted, groundwater is depleting, and cities struggle to provide safe drinking water. These pressures converge simultaneously, overwhelming already stretched systems and leaving communities vulnerable.

Karachi offers a vivid snapshot of this crisis. On May 3, temperatures soared to 40.9°C, with a “feel‑like” temperature of 46°C. Residents already facing ruptured pipelines and excessive loadshedding by K‑Electric found themselves battling acute water shortages. In districts such as Landhi, Shah Faisal Colony, North Karachi, Baldia Town, and Orangi, households were forced to rely on private water tankers at exorbitant rates. Protests erupted in Mauripur against prolonged outages and water scarcity, highlighting how climate stress compounds governance failures. For millions of urban residents, resilience is not an abstract concept but a daily struggle for survival.

Rural communities face equally dire challenges. Farming, the backbone of rural livelihoods, is increasingly uncertain as floods, water shortages, and rising heat threaten crops and food supplies. When crops fail, supply chains falter, and prices rise, the poorest households are hit hardest. Resilience in these areas depends on education, asset ownership, access to technology, and social support. Yet progress remains uneven, undermined by poor governance and the absence of a coordinated national plan. Without structural reforms, Pakistan will continue to pay for damage rather than prevent it.

The looming El Niño phenomenon adds another layer of vulnerability. Forecasts suggest strong conditions could develop between May and July, bringing hotter, drier weather that will sap hydropower, damage crops, and spike energy demand. For a country already struggling with fertiliser and fuel costs due to Middle East conflict, this is a recipe for deeper food insecurity. Analysts warn that squeezed producer margins could lead to lower fertiliser use and weaker yields, intensifying food price inflation. In import‑dependent and climate‑vulnerable markets like Pakistan, the risks are magnified.

Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue; it is a driver of poverty. A World Bank report warns that unabated emissions could push an additional 43 million people into extreme poverty by 2050. Pakistan, with its large rural population, entrenched inequality, and high exposure to floods and heatwaves, is among the most at risk. Already, 108 million people, 42.3 per cent of the population, live below the poverty line. Under business‑as‑usual scenarios, this number could rise to 190–200 million by 2050, nearly half the projected population. In effect, every other child born in Pakistan would grow up in poverty, unable to afford adaptation or recovery from climate shocks.

The demographic explosion compounds this vulnerability. From 33.7 million in 1951, Pakistan’s population has surged to 242.7 million in 2025 and is projected to reach 380–403 million by 2050, making it the world’s third most populous nation. This growth, coupled with economic stagnation and declining per capita income, creates escalating climate fragility. With GDP per capita projected to fall to $1,200–1,300 by 2050, the poor will have virtually no financial buffer to absorb shocks. The vicious cycle is clear: climate disasters deepen poverty, and poverty magnifies vulnerability to climate disasters.

Geography further intensifies the risk. Vulnerable populations are disproportionately concentrated in high‑risk areas, low‑lying floodplains, marginal farmland, and unauthorised settlements on riverbeds and urban peripheries. Data shows that in recent years, 18–26 districts have faced droughts in Balochistan and Sindh, 18 districts glacial lake outburst floods in Gilgit‑Baltistan and KP, six districts tropical storms in Sindh and Balochistan, and 84 districts floods across provinces. Each district is exposed to multiple types of disasters, ensuring that the poor are hit first and hardest.

Despite decades of disasters, Pakistan repeats its mistakes. Encroachment on floodplains continues, communal lands are treated as private profit centres, and prevention is dismissed as an expense rather than an investment. Lessons remain unlearned because learning requires confronting entrenched power networks. Top‑down interventions have failed to generate ownership, while local governments remain weak and underfunded. Globally, bottom‑up initiatives led by elected local governments have proven more effective in building resilience, but Pakistan has yet to embrace this model.

Transformative change demands structural governance reform. Land‑use planning must be managed at the district level, zoning laws must protect communal lands, and resilience management plans must restore natural flood buffers. Districts should develop asset inventories as revenue sources, while national frameworks must guide local actions. A proposed National Reclamation Commission could spearhead this transformation, but political will remains elusive. Without decisive pushback against elite capture and vested interests, Pakistan will remain trapped in reactive cycles.

The Breathe Pakistan conference, while symbolically important, risks becoming another forum of intent without action. The report has shown the gaps, and the budget must now turn intent into sustained investment. Early warning systems, stricter land‑use rules, protection of wetlands and forests, and smarter water management are not new ideas, they are long‑standing recommendations that require funding and political commitment. Climate spending must be built into regular budgets, not treated as one‑off responses. Governance must be strengthened, provincial efforts aligned, and local governments empowered.