The Age of Uncertainty

Uncertainty has no doubt been an integral part of human life from the beginning of human life itself. Given the fact that uncertainty is a key source of anxiety for human beings, it has understandably given rise to all sorts of social and psychological mechanisms to deal with the phenomenon. The transition from primitive societies dominated by the forces of nature to more modern societies that rely a great deal on collective human interventions to deal with existential problems has made life course events more predictable, thereby reducing the extent of uncertainty involved.

The development of science and technology and their applications in a whole range of fields such as food production, physical mobility, communications and healthcare clearly illustrate the above point. Yet, uncertainty continues to be a key issue that both individual human beings as well as human societies have to cope with on an ongoing basis.

The history of human societies points to the fact that order and stability have often  been  elusive  societal goals in time and space. This is due to the fact that there has never been any consensus on the nature of the most desirable social and moral order. This lack of consensus  has given rise to wars, conflicts and socio-political upheavals. The capitalist world that we are living in today is full of contradictions and is characterised by great inequalities, conflicts and rapid change, all of which produce a sense of uncertainty in the minds of many people. Economic prosperity and public welfare that capitalist development brought about were confined to a small part of the world until recently, but can no longer be taken for granted even in the developed world,   in spite of unprecedented capitalist expansion across the world in recent decades.

Neo-liberal reforms introduced in almost all parts of the world to facilitate capitalist expansion beyond national borders have made the global economy more unstable and volatile, as clearly evident from the economic crises affecting many developed countries, in spite of unprecedented expansion of real and monetary economies across the world. The mainstream media institutions in almost all countries  no longer talk about long term economic, social and political stability. Instead, the focus is on day-to-day dynamics in global stock markets, currency and commodity markets, employment, political protests, violent conflicts, extreme climate events, etc. All these phenomena point to constant instabilities and uncertainties.

Different parts of the world have been interdependent for a long time, at least since the dawn of western colonialism. Today, global interdependence affects the lives of the people around the world almost on a daily basis. Sudden shifts in the Chinese economy or the change of the price of oil in the Middle East affect the value of local currencies and stock prices in other countries. Consumer sentiments in one country can affect employment in another country. These are daily occurrences that affect the lives of millions of people. This is a far cry from the experiences of people in most developed countries several decades back when workers usually had secure life time employment with retirement benefits. Today, companies all of a sudden announce retrenchment of workers or closure of factories, usually in response to constant changes in consumer demand, prices, wages, currency markets, etc.

The above state of affairs creates and sustains a high degree of uncertainty in the minds of vulnerable people. This is particularly so in countries where most families depend on wage-employment based economic and social benefits. So, the prospect of loss of employment is a great source of uncertainty and anxiety in many countries. This naturally affects the well-being of employees in more vulnerable sectors of the economy, in particular those who do not have considerable accumulated savings and assets. Social, psychological and health implications of constant shifts in labour markets have not been widely discussed or investigated, so our understanding of such implications remains impressionistic and anecdotal.

The impact of neo-liberal reforms on non-western, developing societies can be as adverse, if not more so.

These reforms have added new uncertainties to the already existing ones. Rapid mobility of labour creates instability of family and community life, and this gives rise to many uncertainties in the lives of migrant workers and their families.

Internal conflicts and violence have become quite common in many countries around the world today.  Sri Lanka suffered from an ethnic war for nearly three decades, and the country is yet to restore political stability and permanent peace and harmony among ethnic communities. The pattern is not dissimilar in the rest of South Asia and in some of the East Asian countries. We observe new political conflicts emerging in Latin America. Many African countries have been affected by major internal conflicts, and some of them are still going on.

So, political conflicts, violence and resultant instability and poverty are a persistent source of uncertainty in almost all parts of the world. It is natural for people to try to find their way out of vulnerable situations created by violence and conflict. As a result, millions of people are on the move, walking across national borders, getting into fishing boats to sail towards safer and stable refuges, etc. There appears to be no signs of any improvement in this situation in the near future.

And, finally, climate change has become the most intractable source of instability, vulnerability and uncertainty of all times. While the trend is quite clear, frequent extreme climate events around the world leave little doubt about what we are heading towards. Yet, its causes are intricately connected with the way we are organised today to meet the needs of people in many parts of the world. The new global division of labour depends on the increasing use of natural resources and ever-increasing consumption of commodities produced around the world, both of which contribute to climate change.

It is true that uncertainty has been an integral aspect of human existence on the blue planet but all human endeavours to reduce uncertainty in order to improve social, physical and psychological well being of human beings are today rivalled by new sources of uncertainty that human societies have given rise to. As a result, we have entered an era of uncertainty which seems to be qualitatively and quantitatively different from the ones that we have left behind.