The US-Iran MoU and the fly in the ointment

• However, this time around,  it appears an agreement has finally been reached

It appears the US-Israeli war against Iran is finally coming to a close. But we need be aware there’s many a slip tween cup and the lip. Since US President Trump went to war with Iran on February 28 this year, he has told the world at least 39 times the US was on the brink of ‘declaring peace’ –only to change his mind within a day or two.

However, this time around,  it appears an agreement has finally been reached and details of a draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) were released by Iranian state media. 

A formal ceremony to sign the MoU will take place in Geneva on June 18. The text of the agreement has not yet been released and Tehran and Washington have been making contradictory statements on the contents. Leaked texts claim the MoU contains 14 points. 

They include a permanent end to the hostilities across all fronts including in Lebanon; sanctions relief; the unfreezing of Iranian assets; reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s affairs and a commitment from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons.

The cost of the recent war in Iran has cost the US, thirteen military service members killed and 365 injured, 46 aircraft damaged or destroyed, and between $25 billion and $30 billion  according to reports in the ‘Guardian’. The hardware replacement cost for destroyed assets alone is estimated at more than $1.45 billion.

Meanwhile the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) quotes a broader figure (including damage to base infrastructure and munitions expenditure), at more than $3 billion. The estimated cost of the Iran war is said to have exceeded $25 billion by March, the Centre said. 

A number of sticky points regarding sanctions relief and financial issues are parts of the more contentious sections of the deal. Iranian media reports the US agreed to unfreeze $24 billion in Iranian assets, with half of the sum set to be handed back to the country before a final agreement is reached. Media reports claim Washington also promised to suspend sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and related exports, as well as presenting a reconstruction plan worth at least $300 billion for Iran!

Yet, the war against Iran is in reality an extension of Israel’s war against Palestine. Since October 2023,  Israel has killed over 72,000 Palestinians including 20,000 children. According to the UN Secretary General, a child is killed every ten minutes in the Gaza war. Sadly,  there is no mention regarding the need to permanently end the massacre and ongoing genocide in Palestine’s Gaza,  and is a serious shortcoming.

For our own country the proposed cessation of hostilities and the opening of the Straits of Hormuz is literally a God sent blessing. We are still struggling to get out of the financial crisis of 2022. The rising prices of fuel which led to all-round price rises from a pin to food and fuel is creating conditions for another economic crisis similar to that of 2022. 

The US-Israel war against Iran has shown the need for us to develop alternate sources of energy and cut down our total dependence on fossil fuel. For the US,  the agreement seems like a total defeat. The US president’s verbal attacks on his closest allies in the Europe has led to them rejecting his adventure in Iran. 

In the oil-rich Middle East,  the US policy of protecting only Israel at the expense of his Arab allies has left them looking askance at the US while seeking new defence alignments elsewhere. As for Iran, it had continuously said it nuclear programme was not geared to manufacture nuclear weapons. The agreement also makes this point.

All in all, America’s misadventure in Iran has also exposed its perfidy, as for example the sneak attack on Iran while still in negotiations with that country.

But the fly in the ointment to the success of the agreement happens to be Israel. Israel insists it will not be tied down by the accord. A classic case of the tail trying to wag the dog. Israel has forgotten the extent it depends on the US for its very existence. The United States baseline aid to Israel amounts to approximately $10.4 million per day under a 10-year Memorandum of Understanding!

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