IS LOCKDOWN EFFECTIVE?

Based on the nature and the behavior of the coronavirus that has brought in a global pandemic, it is the duty of the medical experts to explain the effectiveness of a ten-day lock down or a curfew. 

Some reports say that a person who has contracted the virus would show symptoms of the COVID-19 disease 5 to 7 days after he/she was exposed to the virus. During an interview with the Daily Mirror last year, Head of Department of Immunology and molecular medicine and Director of the Centre for Dengue Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sri Jayawardenapura, Professor Neelika Malavige had stated that the patient who develops symptoms remain infectious for 7 to 10 days since the onset of symptoms.

That means a person who was exposed to the virus on August 20, the day on which the current curfew was imposed at 10.00 pm might show symptoms after August 25, the earliest. The person infected with the virus can be symptomatic or asymptomatic. However, he would be contagious from August 25, but it might take another two or three days to identify the disease, if he/she is already symptomatic, by which time he/she might have spread the virus to other members of the family. 

Yet, the health authorities can identify him/her as a patient by August 28 or 29 and restrict the movement of all the members of his family. If the person had delayed symptoms, and also delayed identification of the disease, which is most probable, he/she and/or members of his/her family might go out into the society once the curfew is lifted on August 30, spreading the disease.  If the curfew period had been two weeks, many (not all) such cases could be detected and the families can be isolated. 

That does not mean that the nine-day curfew is totally ineffective. A large number of people who might otherwise be exposed to the virus during these nine days would not contract it, unless any of the members of their families had already exposed to the virus, before August 20. Therefore, a drop in the number of COVID-19 patients is expected by the end of the curfew, but the health authorities have been already on record saying that the death toll would take time to sink.

The current COVID-19 related high death toll of around 200 per day is nothing, but the direct result of the flaws in the vaccination drive in the country. It neglected the senior citizens who should be on the top of the priority list, according to the vaccination guidelines of the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as our own Health Ministry. Health authorities said on Sunday that the 91% of those 183 persons died of COVID-19 on the previous day had not been vaccinated while 77% of them were from over 60-plus category. 

A rough calculation would show that around 125 senior citizens have died just because not being given the vaccine. In the mean time, more than five million people in the country had been given both the doses of the vaccine by Sunday, whereas the population of the over 60 plus category is only around three million. Why were the elders ignored after the frontline health workers and the supportive armed forces and the police personnel were vaccinated? The WHO advises to give priority to prevent deaths over spreading the disease and that was why the senior citizens are on top of the priority list of vaccination.

Although President Gotabaya Rajapaksa hinted about possible stricter restrictions by his call for more sacrifices during his address to the nation on Friday (20), he also indicated that the country cannot afford to any more restrictions that would hamper the economic activities, especially in the export sector. In fact, the economy seems to be on the brink of collapse. Hence, people who had begun to realize the gravity of the situation and exerted pressure on the government to close the country must extend their precautions further to prevent the spread of the disease and the deaths, without depending on the authorities.