Pakistan’s China-backed South Asia bloc: An unrealistic idea without India

Pakistan’s proposal to form a new South Asian regional bloc, one that leaves out India, appears fundamentally impractical and overlooks critical realities. The idea, floated by Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, is to expand a trilateral cooperation among Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China into a broader alliance of South Asian nations. This plan is ostensibly meant to reshape regional alliances and challenge India’s traditional dominance in South Asian geopolitics.  However, what the proposal underplays is the immense strategic and economic gaps that make any such bloc unviable without India at its core. In focusing on potential new partnerships, the plan glosses over the analytical reality that India’s presence is indispensable for meaningful regional integration.

Any new “South Asia bloc” conceived without India is inherently hollow. India is by far the largest and most influential country in the region – it is now the world’s most populous nation and currently the fifth-largest economy on the planet. This outsized heft translates to undeniable clout. India’s position in South Asia is effectively unassailable. Its population is roughly seven times that of Pakistan’s, and its GDP is about 12 times larger. Such staggering disparities mean India alone accounts for the lion’s share of South Asia’s market size, resources, and opportunities. 

Excluding the region’s economic engine and principal diplomatic player would leave any new bloc bereft of scale and credibility. Pakistan’s former officials have acknowledged India’s importance; without cooperation between India and Pakistan, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) became moribund years ago. A splinter bloc without India would only repeat this dysfunction in another guise.

The prospect of smaller countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, or the Maldives showing interest in a new grouping sans India is doubtful. Analysts widely agree that no South Asian nation would risk joining a China-backed bloc that excludes New Delhi, given India’s economic weight and its proven role as a crisis manager in the region. India’s neighbors depend heavily on it for trade, transit, and emergency assistance. For example, landlocked Nepal and Bhutan rely on access to India’s markets and transport routes. At the same time, countries like the Maldives and Sri Lanka have benefited from India’s aid and disaster relief efforts. 

During the COVID-19 pandemic, India acted as an “indispensable leader” by providing vaccines and medical help across South Asia. Smaller states are keenly aware that jeopardizing their ties with India could imperil these lifelines. Therefore, the mere absence of India’s participation would leave any regional framework “fragmented and underfunded,” depriving it of both financial heft and coherence.

Furthermore, by not fully addressing India’s role, the proposal’s advocates are essentially suggesting a car can run without its engine. The idea that South Asian cooperation could advance by deliberately excluding the region’s most prominent member defies common sense. India’s economic and strategic gravity anchors South Asia. It is not just India’s size – it is also its unique position as a bridge between the developing and developed worlds. India often positions itself as a voice of the Global South, championing the interests of developing nations in forums like the G20. 

This leadership and international clout cannot simply be replaced by smaller neighbors or by extra-regional powers like China. Any new bloc without India would lack legitimacy in representing South Asia’s two billion people and would struggle to coordinate on regional issues that inevitably involve India. While Pakistan pitches its initiative as “open and inclusive regionalism,” excluding India is anything but inclusive. It risks creating a polarized camp rather than a cooperative community. The gap here is glaring: how a “South Asia” group could function when the region’s predominant player is absent – or even actively opposed to it.

The proposal’s driving force appears to be Pakistan’s desire to regain diplomatic relevance by leveraging its close relationship with China. With SAARC paralyzed and India redirecting its focus to other alliances, such as BIMSTEC (a Bay of Bengal forum that notably excludes Pakistan), Islamabad is looking for a new avenue to assert its influence. Pakistan’s leaders tout cooperation and flexibility, but this cannot obscure the realpolitik beneath the surface. Islamabad has cultivated strong ties with Beijing, and China’s inclusion is what gives this proposed bloc any heft. Pakistan is attempting an end run around India’s dominance in the region by rallying, with China’s backing, whoever it can, into an alternative grouping. This is less about genuine regional integration than about Pakistan seeking a platform where India does not overshadow it. 

The notion of a “South Asian” bloc that requires a non-South Asian superpower’s patronage underscores how impractical the concept is on its own merits. It is China’s massive economy and strategic pull that would prop up this bloc – another sign that, without India, the region on its own lacks a comparable center of gravity. By treating Beijing as just another partner, the proposal misses the point that inviting China effectively transforms the bloc’s nature: it becomes an extension of China-Pakistan interests, which other South Asian states will view with caution. Few of India’s neighbors are eager to become pawns in a China-vs-India great power game, especially when their own prosperity is intertwined with both giants.

Therefore, the idea of a new South Asian coalition without India is a diplomatic fantasy. It ignores ground realities in favor of aspirational rhetoric. Yes, South Asia badly needs better cooperation – intra-regional trade is dismally low, and SAARC has long been dormant. But trying to circumvent India by forming a parallel bloc is not a solution; it’s a distraction. 

In diplomatic terms, Pakistan’s move reads more like a bargaining tactic or an influence play than a credible path forward for South Asian unity. It is an attempt by Islamabad to leverage Chinese support to elevate its regional standing, but one that overlooks the basic fact that no South Asian vision can thrive without India’s buy-in. The new bloc idea, lacking the region’s central pillar, is ultimately an empty framework. Rather than splitting South Asia into rival camps, a far more practical approach would be to address the India-Pakistan impasse that paralyzes existing institutions, including addressing the cross-border terrorism issue. Finally, Pakistan’s China-backed bloc gambit is bound to remain impractical and under-subscribed, a vivid illustration that in South Asia’s geopolitics, all roads invariably run through New Delhi.