Breaking Down the Israel–Iran Conflict: What We Know So Far - Day 108



By Moiz Mustafa


June 15 (Daily Mirror) – Day 108 – After more than three months of war, the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to end hostilities, paving the way for formal negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and regional security arrangements.

The breakthrough follows months of fighting that killed more than 7,000 people, displaced millions across the Middle East and triggered the largest global energy shock in recent history.

Under the agreement, a memorandum of understanding will be signed in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday, with Pakistan overseeing the ceremony after playing a key role in mediating between Washington and Tehran.

US President Donald Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen when the agreement is signed, ending a blockade that disrupted one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments.

Iran says the agreement includes the immediate end of military operations across all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, uncertainty remains over whether the deal will hold, with Israeli leaders openly criticising the agreement and signalling that military operations could continue independently.

What we know about the agreement

Strait of Hormuz to reopen

  • Iran's draft proposal reportedly calls for reopening Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian security arrangements.
  • Trump says shipping through Hormuz will be toll-free once the agreement is signed.

Frozen Iranian assets

  • Iranian media reports the US will release $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets before negotiations begin.

Iran's nuclear programme

  • Trump says negotiations continue over Iran's uranium enrichment programme.
  • Washington reportedly wants a 20-year suspension, although Trump suggested a 15-year compromise may be possible.

Israel yet to comment officially

  • Despite criticism from Israeli politicians, there has been no formal Israeli government statement on the agreement itself.

Rising casualties across the region

The war has killed at least 7,129 people across the region.

Figures may change as additional information becomes available.

Iran — killed: 3,468 | injured: 26,500+

Iran remains the country most directly affected by the conflict.

According to Iran's Ministry of Health:

  • 3,468 people have been killed

  • More than 26,500 have been injured

  • Hundreds of women and children are among the dead

Iranian officials say the war caused extensive damage to military facilities, infrastructure and civilian areas across the country.

Lebanon — killed: 3,593 | injured: 7,061+

Lebanon suffered the highest death toll of any country involved in the conflict.

At least:

  • 3,593 people have been killed

  • More than 7,000 injured

  • Approximately 1.2 million displaced

Although the agreement includes an end to military operations in Lebanon, fighting and Israeli strikes have continued in recent days.

Israel — killed: 26 | injured: 7,693

Iranian missile attacks killed at least 26 Israelis and injured 7,693 others.

Major strikes targeted:

  • Tel Aviv

  • Dimona

  • Arad

  • Military and strategic sites

US soldiers — killed: 13 | injured: 200

The US military has confirmed:

  • 13 combat-related deaths

  • Approximately 200 injuries

Other casualties

Bahrain: 3 killed, dozens injured

Iraq: 118 killed, dozens injured

Jordan: 0 killed, 29 injured

Kuwait: 7 killed, dozens injured

Oman: 3 killed, 15 injured

Qatar: 0 killed, 20 injured

Saudi Arabia: 3 killed, 29 injured

United Arab Emirates: 12 killed, 224 injured

Historic agreement announced

The biggest development of the war came with the announcement that Washington and Tehran have agreed to permanently end hostilities.

According to both sides:

  • Fighting will end across all fronts

  • Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme will begin

  • Discussions on sanctions relief will follow

  • Maritime restrictions are expected to be eased

  • The Strait of Hormuz will reopen

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the breakthrough as the result of months of diplomacy and said the agreement marks the end of “three months and 16 days of unparalleled trials.”

Pakistan emerges as key peacemaker

Pakistan has played the central mediating role in the conflict's final phase.

Islamabad hosted earlier negotiations and has maintained communication channels with both Washington and Tehran throughout the crisis.

Pakistani officials will witness the signing ceremony in Geneva.

Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran carrying what Iranian media described as a special letter from Pakistan’s leadership to Iran's supreme leadership.

Strait of Hormuz set to reopen

One of the most significant consequences of the agreement is the planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The waterway carries approximately:

  • 20 percent of global oil exports

  • Large volumes of liquefied natural gas

  • Critical industrial commodities

Trump said the strait would reopen immediately after Friday's signing.

However, shipping experts remain cautious.

Military and maritime analyst Alexandre Hudisteanu warned that shipping companies will likely proceed slowly after months of attacks on commercial vessels.

Many operators are waiting for:

  • Security guarantees

  • Mine-clearance operations

  • Confirmation that navigation is safe

Industry analysts say confidence could take weeks to rebuild.

World leaders welcome breakthrough

Governments around the world have welcomed the agreement.

Countries publicly supporting the deal include:

  • China

  • Saudi Arabia

  • United Kingdom

  • France

  • Spain

  • United Arab Emirates

China called for maintaining momentum toward lasting peace.

The UAE said the agreement could strengthen:

  • Regional security

  • Economic stability

  • Freedom of navigation

  • Maritime safety

Israel openly opposes the agreement

Unlike most international leaders, senior Israeli politicians reacted negatively.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not rejected the agreement outright but insists Israeli security goals remain unchanged.

More direct criticism came from key members of his coalition.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said:

"Trump's agreement does not bind us."

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich described the deal as:

"Bad for Israel."

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called it:

"A dangerous turn for Israel's security."

Several Israeli leaders insist military pressure on Iran should continue through what they describe as “creative means.”

Israel refuses withdrawal from occupied territories

Despite the agreement, Israel says it will continue occupying territory captured during the conflict.

Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israeli forces will remain indefinitely in:

  • Southern Lebanon

  • Gaza

  • Parts of Syria

Israeli officials argue the deployments are necessary to prevent future attacks.

The position is likely to become one of the most contentious issues in future negotiations.

Lebanon welcomes peace but remains cautious

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and parliamentary leader Nabih Berri welcomed the agreement.

However, Lebanon's military warned displaced residents to exercise caution before returning to border areas.

Officials cited continuing risks from:

  • Unexploded ordnance

  • Israeli military activity

  • Possible ceasefire violations

The Israeli army has also continued operations, including the destruction of the Qasmiyeh Bridge, a key route linking southern Lebanese communities.

US politics remain divided

The agreement comes amid continued debate inside the United States.

Trump has presented the deal as proof that military pressure achieved results.

However, critics argue the war could have been avoided entirely through diplomacy.

The Pentagon is also rejecting reports that the conflict significantly depleted US weapons stockpiles.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed concerns about ammunition shortages, saying:

"Our stockpiles are great and they're only getting stronger."

Global markets respond positively

Financial markets reacted immediately to news of the agreement.

  • Oil prices fell sharply

  • Global stock markets rallied

  • Shipping and airline shares gained

  • Energy traders reduced risk premiums

Investors hope the reopening of Hormuz will ease pressure on global supply chains and reduce inflation concerns.

Peace agreement offers hope, but challenges remain

While the Geneva agreement represents the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the war began on February 28, many observers caution that it remains an interim deal rather than a final settlement.

Major issues remain unresolved:

  • Iran's nuclear programme

  • US sanctions

  • Israeli military operations in Lebanon

  • Israeli control of territory in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria

  • Long-term security arrangements in the Gulf

As diplomats prepare for Friday's signing ceremony, the war appears closer to ending than at any point in the past 108 days.

Yet after months of fighting, mistrust remains deep, and the durability of the agreement will depend on whether both sides can transform a fragile ceasefire into a lasting peace.

For now, however, the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and hostilities ending offers the clearest sign yet that the conflict may finally be entering its final chapter.

 


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