Video: Kelaniya University survey predicts win for MR

31 December 2014 12:12 pm - 31     - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

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A survey carried out by the Kelaniya University today predicted 53 per cent of the votes for President Mahinda Rajapaksa and 44 per cent for Common Opposition Candidate Maithripala Sirisena at the January 8 presidential election with a five per cent margin of error.


Kelaniya University Mass Communication Department Head Professor Rohan Lakshman Priyadasa said they had conducted the survey in two stages.  


“In the first stage, we conducted a survey to find the most popular political leader as a pre survey to the presidential election and it was done before handing over nominations. At the second stage we collected and data from 5,000 individuals from the records of the Census and Statistics Department during a one and half month period based on a scientific method. The data was collected considering the ethnic composition, gender, age and occupation representing all the areas of the country,” the Professor said.

A questionnaire was prepared for people to answer freely in both Sinhala and Tamil.

Of the 5,000, five percent did not answer the questions. According to gender the results the poll is as follows: Thirty one per cent of females favoured President Mahinda Rajapaksa while 16 per cent favoured Mr. Sirisena; twenty eight per cent of males favoured President Mahinda Rajapaksa while 17 per cent favoured Mr. Sirisena.


Professor Piyadasa said they tabulated the data according to an accepted and reliable scientific process and arrived at the final result which has a five per cent margin of error.


The research team headed by Professor Priyadasa comprised four others including lecturer Dammika Bandara Herath. (Chaturanga Pradeep)


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  Comments - 31

  • Estmates Thursday, 01 January 2015 04:47 PM

    Actually government add 20% to all projects in Sri Lanka now. Should have done same ? :-)

    Waco Thursday, 01 January 2015 01:53 PM

    Crab is happy until the water starts boiling.

    Dom Wednesday, 31 December 2014 05:45 PM

    This is a Government University and the professors are bribed to vote and work..

    joke Wednesday, 31 December 2014 05:55 PM

    joke via DM Android App

    Amdon Wednesday, 31 December 2014 05:59 PM

    How much you got for this survey? Hope your luckiest year is 2014 and sadness year will be 2015. Enjoy

    Nilu Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:02 PM

    The Kelaniya University survey probably only sampled one person, Mervyn Silva.

    Waco Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:02 PM

    Koluwo Piyadasa, get your head checked up." ,Kuliyata Kahinawa.

    jehan Thursday, 01 January 2015 09:56 AM

    MY 3 51.76% MR 46.2%

    Jazzy Friday, 02 January 2015 10:09 AM

    Hurrah for our President. I only hope the professor is not putting him on him on the "MURUNGA ATHTA"!!. a DYING MAN WILL CLING TO A STRAW!!

    sansu Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:09 PM

    Before one and half months there was no common candidate, and getting 5000 people out of 15 million eligible voters is a joke, sample size is negligible. Sad to see this prof s are sold out.

    ARROW Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:10 PM

    Did include your wife to single sample survey?

    Waco Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:11 PM

    MR, you have lost 17% out of the 52% you had. Due to the Lawlessness, Thuggery, Corruption etc,etc, happy with the remaining 35%

    dcn Wednesday, 31 December 2014 09:58 PM

    How accurate these predictions?

    ANTON Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:17 PM

    HA HAA......NOT SECOND TO WEATHER FORECAST..... BY OUR METEOROLOGICAL PEOPLE.....

    Waco Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:19 PM

    Common opporsition candidate Mr. MithrIpala Sitisena is sure to get 61% or little more. Because for paying 700 million to Salman Khan MR has lost lot more votes.

    Anju de Silva Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:23 PM

    Is there any place where we can get the demographics of this breakdown? Only trump card the incumbent has is the Sinhala vote base, and that too is vanning in districts like Pollonaruwa, Anuradhapura and Kandy. It is sad to see that this election has created division by ethnicity and religion.

    HiranGunawardena Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:22 PM

    Finally people will realise all those opposition done hardly anything but criticise everything. via DM Android App

    meman Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:24 PM

    This is the same person who said MR will get 73% in 2010 president election. So he was over by 13% so 53% means about 45%

    FairGoF Wednesday, 07 January 2015 08:46 PM

    The vast majority of the people here are also voting people, and that SHOULD give you an idea as to where the election is heading. There is a real sample for you.

    Udaris Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:26 PM

    When did SL polls have any credibility?Is this what is expected of massaged Figures for 9th morningToo optimistic...

    Nuwan Thursday, 01 January 2015 03:00 PM

    i also vote

    willows Wednesday, 31 December 2014 10:28 PM

    good for nothing

    Roshan Thursday, 01 January 2015 10:41 AM

    lol did the survey also have "hora chanda" :P

    Damien Fernando Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:29 PM

    Can you please tell us how you got your doctorate. You are just a dumbass. Don sell your Phd for cheap politicians

    Rahula Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:29 PM

    if you apply the margin of error, Maithripala wins. 48% to MR against 49% to MS !! Lies, damned lies and statistics. Add to this equation our great statistical wizards as well.

    karu Wednesday, 31 December 2014 10:46 PM

    Peoples survey says, Kelaniya University finding is 100% humbug.You can fool some people some time but not every people every time

    Jerry Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:35 PM

    04:14 to 04:23 Explain all. ;) fair chance to swipe 5% to both parties.

    RAVI Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:38 PM

    A Colombo University survey has found that common opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena was ahead in the polls with 53% of the votes.According to the survey report released on December 27, the assessment was made by taking into consideration the Sinhalese voter base while predicting that the Muslim and Tamil votes would be equally divided between the candidates. It revealed that under these conditions Maithripala Sirisena would be ahead by 200,000 votes.

    Anju de Silva Wednesday, 31 December 2014 06:38 PM

    I am not a fan of the incumbent, but these are my predictions. So for people who want a change, you need to change of mind set of the majority.Ethnicity (%)Expected Vote (%)
    Sinhala - 74.9 60D.94
    Tamils - 11.240% 4.48
    Muslim - 9.230% 2.76
    Indian - 4.260% 2.52

    54.70Ethnicity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sri_Lanka

    Sam Friday, 02 January 2015 11:19 PM

    Kelani University has done some survey and giving the results. All the people who comment has done nothing and make baseless comments. Just like Sirisena and the clan who make baseless allegations.

    durang Thursday, 01 January 2015 06:37 AM

    HAPPY TWENTY FIFTEEN TO YOU ALL!


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