The time to understand the floating and conscience votes
Emerging patterns leave eerie designs.
The Government and the Opposition compete to court unpopularity. Both are incapable of winning a 
wide spectrum of confidence or goodwill. Local Government elections, if held, may show a close call to decide, who is less unpopular and better equipped to cope with low esteem regionally.
A floating voter, cannot be manipulated, and shall ultimately decide the winner after flirting around.
Foresee a two-cornered contest, where ordinarily a Government in power is at a distinct advantage. This Government has an inbuilt Opposition from within; attached are moles that can burrow from down under. Real Opposition is out in the streets, evolving a party of Mahinda Rajapaksa, whose avatar is fast rising – among his own supporters!
A new party is in the making with haggard faces and tired features with a sprinkling of freshly baked cup cakes and decorated jam tarts related and/or connected to a generation gone to seed.
Bring in new boys and the girls…look closer… they interface with familiar names or faces of yore.
Independent intellectuals are a few like Nihal Jayawickreme or Dayan Jayatilleke. Can they last refusing to chew crumbs falling off the table? Many of the ‘old boys’ fail to fade off, greedy for a ticket to travel first class or jump on board a Presidential jaunt.
Each party has its building blocks of solidified votes; uncommitted will spin the majorities. Politically, Sirisena leads a solitary existence and will be compelled to join hands with the UNP, as his coterie is unable to muster an appreciable vote.
Without the UNP, Sirisena is nobody but in the leadership chair, he is more approachable than Ranil Wickremesinghe, best in his few and far eloquent spells. Is it a matter of upbringing… understandable…so was Anura Bandaranaike..
Many raised both hands for the government in January 2015; presently are the critics’ that complain most, for not living up to minimum expectations. Being let down is a hard take for the sincere.
Yet, those numbers are likely to return to base camp on the morning the franchise is exercised since the opposition has not changed its spots. Or maybe not walk to vote.Uncommitted are bold to restate their thoughts in an atmosphere more congenial than before for critical expression. A badly orchestrated economy is on the reverse gear - makes life unbearable to the poor: going to the market is to encounter highwaymen waiting to rip off the meager earnings, while the traders grumble business is dormant. Alternates are still un-cleansed: with a possible repetition of a Rajapaksa dominated inner sanctum. .
Basil is showing face and Gotabaya is lurking in the background. Such views cannot be categorised as authentic floating voters - they tilt prejudicially in favour of the UNP.
Here are a few leads for inclusion and exclusion. Floating voters are intelligent, knowledgeable, well informed are minus the herd instinct, while being urbanely jingoistic, rather than crudely xenophobic, in comparison to the extremists.
Rajapaksa wing proudly exhibits trophies acquired during the war, while Wickremesinghe lost his bearings by appointing a weird committee to oversee the US-Sri Lankan resolution in Geneva that causes concern to the military.
The NGO names therein route us on a Yankee trail: Committee on paper appear bending to foreign domination to which, Wickremesinghe has succumbed.
It causes trepidation in the minds of the genuinely patriotic floating voters. Floating voters kept vigil with a favoured eye on Wickremesinghe: Stupidly by a singular act successfully drives many of the uncommitted to the doorstep of Rajapaksa but they may not care to enter the chamber?
Wickremesinghe has netted the ball into his own goal but does not know it? Patriotic forces do not constitute the floating voters as they traditionally sway towards the SLFP.
Both the UNP and SLFP have their bulk reservoir of voters in its good and bad times - the unrewarded and unheralded faithful. Majority carry the proud traditions of their fore fathers as non-card carrying members of the UNP/SLFP, dedicated and loyal to their party while watching their cartwheeling MP’s summersault.
Floating voter is anti-establishment, works against a party in power and idealises a purified society in a utopian sense. It is a growing body with mobile phones and periodicals, Twitter and Facebook originating from all walks of life in cities and towns.Singular bonding factor was the successful dismantling of dreaded terrorism, when most floating voters switched to Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2010. Mahinda Rajapaksa has a place in history –no other President can match.
Sirisena and Wickremesinghe are today’s somebody, probably tomorrow’s nobody.
The upsurge of popularity of the Rajapaksas’ climaxed with the election results of 2010. It went into their heads already bloated being enthralled on being installed as a ‘Royal Family”.
Rulers and their paid retainers ran amok thinking gratitude extends to forgiveness in doing any wrong. From then on it was a gradual downhill run unknown to the Rajapaksas that drove the floating voters to gradually stray away till it dawned on the then Government of an election that needed a struggle.
Yet, Ranil Wickremesinghe with his far fangled antics could be the saviour of Mahinda Rajapaksa capable of bringing the floating voters back to the former President in being distinctively alienated from society he lives in and his loyalty to the powers that tried to sabotage the war against terrorism.
War victory of 2009 is the greatest achievement by Sri Lanka: Whoever tries to demean it, suffers at the hand of the Southern thinking, wherein lies the bulk-vote.
Mahinda Rajapaksa won 2005 as he carried the bulk of the Sinhala vote that needed no prompting; He did not win because of the Southern majorities but since the North did not cast their vote to its potential.
He regained it in 2010 when the thinking voters from the UNP added to his count and the North had not regained its strength to vote according to their wishes.
The North and East now votes to its maximum strength and is a virulent anti-Sinhala vote, which Wickremesinghe desires to capture only to lose the Southern bulk vote. Rajapaksa cannot depend on the Sinhala Buddhist vote alone to win, as it bifurcates with the traditional UNP vote.
If the corruption charges stick they will eat into the SLFP’s Sinhala Buddhist conscience vote. Sinhalese being the overwhelming majority exercises a substantial conscience vote unlike the Tamils and Muslims that vote more on narrow ethnic lines.
Evidence may be forthcoming on the corruption charges but are the quality of the prosecutors good enough to present the material to court?
Does the Attorney General have capable officials to bring a series of convictions against the political offenders? If they falter the floating voter would prefer to rely on the judgment of court and rest the case on a political witch - hunt. Experience show that the Attorney Generals’ officials play safe looking after their careers, seeking delay and postponement as artful designs and allow political fortunes take their twists and turns and meander along.
Change of regime see many a prosecution crash- only for corruption to flourish and the powerful to regain patronage.
Who is to blame - not the voter. Who is to suffer-indeed the voter!
