Saudi-Pakistan defence pact becomes litmus test for Islamabad’s credibility and strategic conduct

Islamabad finds itself in the crossfire between Iran and the United States due to the ongoing Gulf crisis, which demands that Pakistan sides with Saudi Arabia and potentially fight Iran in accordance with with its defence pact with Riyadh. Pakistan is expected to take direct action to protect Saudi Arabia from Iranian attacks under the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA).

However, it appears to be hesitating and trying tightrope walk amidst intensifying economic and geopolitical pressures.

Soon after Tehran launched attacks on the US assets across the Gulf, Islamabad announced that it would shield Saudi. Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar apprised his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi of Pakistan’s defence obligations to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. “We have a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, and the whole world knows about it. I told the Iranian leadership to take care of our pact with Saudi Arabia,” Dar said.  

It was followed by a visit by Pakistani army chief Asim Munir to Riyadh about halting Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia. "Both discussed the gravity of security situation accruing from Iranian drone and missile attacks on the Kingdom and joint measures needed to halt them within the framework of Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement," said Pakistani army. 

Recently, Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the Iranian attacks, expressed unequivocal support for Saudi, and pledged that “Pakistan would always stand by the Kingdom and the brotherly people of Saudi Arabia.” Even Islamabad told Tehran that the attacks on Saudi would be seen as attacks on Pakistan. But all these assurances have not yet translated into decisive action. 

SMDA appears to be a paper tiger as Pakistan has so far refrained from entering the conflict despite Iranian attacks inside the Kingdom, said Saudi scribe and expert on Middle East affairs Abdul Mohammed. He said the direct confrontation between Saudi and Iran would force Pakistan to choose between its two neighbours, which would be disastrous for Islamabad either way.  

Earlier in 2015, Pakistan had refused Saudi’s request for military support against Houthi rebels in Yemen, despite a whopping USD 1.5 billion in financial aid from the Kingdom in preceding two years.  Mohammed said the reason was possibilities of protests from the domestic Shia community, which constitute about 20-25 percent of the country’s population, as well as retaliation from Shia-majority Iran that shares a 909-km border in Balochistan, a restive province of Pakistan.  

Now Iran is in the centre of the conflict, making Pakistan’s situation precarious. Islamabad has so far been conspicuously silent and has not provided any military help to under SMDA, thus giving a whiff of a double game in the ongoing Gulf crisis. Any kind of military action such as deploying its forces inside Saudi or providing military support is tantamount to a direct confrontation with Iran.  This further aggravates Pakistan’s geopolitical dilemma. 

Pakistan’s studied silence has questioned the credibility of the defence pact. “Whether it means anything at all,” said Mohammed. “Every Iranian drone that strikes Saudi territory increases the pressure on Islamabad to convert words into action. Every day that passes without Pakistani military contribution erodes the credibility of the defence pact and, by extension, Pakistan’s claim to be a security partner rather than merely a recipient of Saudi generosity.” 

Within six months of formally signing the defence pact (SDMA), Pakistan has found itself in the tough position of defending Saudi from Iran—an equally important neighbour. The ongoing US-Iran war is a litmus test for Pakistan’s credibility, as analysts examine the gap between its assurances and its actual strategic behaviour. “The question is what the SMDA actually requires Pakistan to do, and whether Islamabad’s response will determine how seriously the Gulf takes its commitments for a generation,” said Bilal Khan, a Pakistani security analyst.

Umer Karim, an associate fellow at the Riyadh-based King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies, called the current plight a miscalculation by Munir, as Pakistani leaders earlier ensured that the defence pact with Saudi was never made official. “It was done for the first time by the current army chief, and though the potential dividends are big, so are the costs,” he said. “Perhaps this is the last time the Saudis will test Pakistan, and if Pakistan doesn’t fulfil its commitments now, the relationship will be irreversibly damaged.”