Power Struggles in Bangladesh: Islamist Influence and BNP’s Declining Relevance  

Since the fall of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government, Bangladesh's political landscape has been in turmoil. The remaining political factions—Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami, and the newly formed National Citizen Party—have been engaged in intense maneuvering, each vying for influence in the post-Hasina era. Muhammad Yunus, leader of the caretaker interim government, has been perceived as favoring Jamaat-e-Islami, further deepening Bangladesh Nationalist Party's frustrations. With no clear roadmap for elections and growing uncertainty, political squabbles have intensified, leaving Bangladesh in a state of fragile transition.

The BNP's struggle for political relevance has intensified in the wake of Bangladesh's shifting political landscape. Once a dominant force in the country’s governance, the party now finds itself navigating an increasingly uncertain environment, where Islamist parties and new political players have gained influence. With the prohibition of the Awami League (AL), BNP had hoped to reclaim its position as the leading opposition, but emerging power dynamics threaten to overshadow its role.

Jamaat, once a marginal player, has reportedly gained significant influence in the post-Hasina era, overshadowing BNP's role in shaping the country's political direction. Jamaat-e-Islami leader Shafiqur Rahman has outlined potential election timelines, suggesting February or April 2025 as viable dates, contingent on the completion of judicial and electoral reforms. With various political factions engaging in strategic maneuvering and negotiations, Bangladesh’s political future remains uncertain, hinged on the effectiveness of reforms and cooperation among stakeholders.

Recent reports suggest that Muhammad Yunus's perceived alignment with Jamaat-e-Islami has caused frustration within BNP, further complicating Bangladesh's fragile political landscape. Tariq Rahman, son of former PM Khaleeda Zia and a key BNP figure, is said to be hesitant about returning to Bangladesh, possibly due to concerns over the shifting political dynamics and the growing dominance of Jamaat. The immediate release of Khaleda Zia on August 6 by President Mohammed Shahabuddin paved the way for her overseas medical treatment, prompting BNP's efforts to arrange an air ambulance from Qatar. Khaleda Zia was taken to Tarique Rahman's house on January 25 from London Clinic. 

Reports indicate that Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairperson Khaleda Zia will return home from London on May 5 (Monday) after four months. However, rather than her son Tarique Rahman accompanying her, his wife Dr Zubaida Rahman and Arafat Rahman Koko's wife Sharmila Rahman are accompanying the former prime minister.

Following reports of Khaleda Zia's impending return to Bangladesh from London, efforts are underway to arrange her journey via a special air ambulance. While the goal is to secure her return on May 5, uncertainty looms over the availability of this service, potentially leading to an alternative return on Bangladesh Biman the next day.

Speculation has emerged regarding Muhammad Yunus's alleged role in obstructing arrangements for a Royal Qatar Air Ambulance for Khaleda Zia. In January 2025, when she traveled to London, the Qatari government had extended the use of its royal air ambulance as a special gesture. However, recent claims suggest that Yunus maneuvered against this arrangement, allegedly motivated by personal rivalry and political insecurity.

The narrative suggests that Yunus may have sought to limit the Zia family's international recognition, unwilling to share political prominence, particularly with BNP's leadership, which remains a strong contender for future elections. Meanwhile, Tariq Rahman’s strategic decision to send his wife, Dr. Zubeida, back to Bangladesh is seen as an attempt to gauge the political climate before making his own return—a move perceived by critics as self-serving.

These developments reflect the ongoing political maneuvering in Bangladesh, where competing factions continue to shape the post-Awami League era. 

Under Yunus's interim leadership, Jamaat's influence appears to have expanded, with reports indicating that his administration has lifted bans on radical Islamist groups and released individuals previously detained on terrorism-related charges. This has led to speculation that Yunus's policies favor Jamaat and Pakistan, further fueling BNP's concerns about its diminishing political relevance. The evolving situation has raised questions about Bangladesh's future governance and the balance of power among its political factions.

Political transition in Bangladesh has been marred by concerns over rising extremism and the resurgence of militant groups that once posed a severe threat to national security.

The release of Jashimuddin Rahmani,  accused of orchestrating extremist activities, by Yunus has drawn criticism. Rahmani was charged with the 2013 murder of a blogger and was linked to Ansarullah Bangla Team, a group banned in Bangladesh and internationally for its ties to Al-Qaeda. His release has fueled speculation about the government’s stance on militant organizations. Meanwhile, Hizb ut-Tahrir, a proscribed Islamist group, has seized upon the political vacuum left by Hasina’s departure, actively campaigning for control. The organization has distributed posters across Dhaka urging the military to hand over power, advocating for the establishment of a caliphate. Its influence continues to expand, particularly within private universities and sections of the urban middle class.

Amidst these developments, Yunus’s administration faces mounting criticism for its perceived inaction in curbing the influence of such extremist groups. Many argue that decisive government intervention is necessary to prevent further instability. The fragility of the current political climate underscores the risk of escalating violence, which could significantly diminish Yunus’s leadership credibility in Bangladesh’s highly polarized political landscape. Observers warn that the consequences of a deteriorating security situation could be more perilous than the challenges of governance under a dysfunctional democracy.

The prohibition of the Awami League has emerged as a pivotal issue in Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape. Islamist parties, which have long sought greater political influence, view the ban as a transformative step that could redefine the country’s governance. However, this shift also brings uncertainty, particularly for the BNP, which may find itself vulnerable to political attacks from radical factions seeking to assert dominance. Mob violence and instability loom as serious threats, with reports suggesting that radical groups may challenge BNP’s position rather than support it. The interim government, caught between competing factions and lacking decisive control, risks becoming a passive observer in a landscape increasingly shaped by aggressive maneuvering and ideological clashes, further complicating BNP’s efforts to regain its standing.

The BNP now faces a critical juncture—either it successfully reasserts its relevance in the post-Hasina era or risks being sidelined in Bangladesh’s volatile political transformation. Strategic leadership, decisive action, and careful navigation of alliances will be essential if BNP hopes to reclaim its position in the country’s future political landscape. For now the chances of that appear bleak, with no indications of Tariq Rahman’s return to Bangladesh and Khaleda Zia being too ill to meaningfully participate in the political process. 

Without firm intervention, Bangladesh could witness further instability, with political actors exploiting the uncertainty to consolidate their positions.