In his statement, the MP states that (a) industries in total contribute to 26.4% of GDP, (b) industrial exports contribute 10% to GDP and (c) 10% of export against the 26.4% production is a very low share of total industrial production to export.
To check this claim, FactCheck.lk consulted the National Accounts and Annual Exports Statistics published by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and World Bank Development Indicators.
On claim (a), according to the provisional data, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices amounted to LKR 14,973 billion in 2020 where industrial production contributed LKR 3,930 billion, or 26.2%. This is in line with the minister’s claim.
On claim (b), industrial exports amounted to LKR 1,419 billion in 2020 which accounted for about 36% of industrial exports and 9.5% of the GDP. This 9.5% of GDP that is exported in contrast to the 26.5% industrial production could explain the MP’s claim of 10%.
On claim (c), according to World Bank data on industry value added and manufacturing exports for 2017, Sri Lanka’s industrial exports of 9.5% was higher than the 4.3%, median share of exports of GDP of lower-middle income countries and lower than the 19.0% median share of industrial exports relative to GDP of upper-middle income countries.
Sri Lanka is close to the boundary of the lower- and upper-middle income country classifications. While the claim cannot be justified on the lower-middle income country benchmark of 4.3%, it can be justified on the upper-middle income country benchmark of 19.0%. Furthermore, more than a quarter of the lower-middle income countries (for which data is available in 2017) have more than a 10% share of exports to GDP and half of them have more than a 20% share in exports – so the minister claim could also be justified as evaluating Sri Lanka against the top 25% of lower-middle income countries.
Therefore, we classify his statement as TRUE.
*FactCheck.lk’s verdict is based on the most recent information that is publicly accessible. As with every fact check, if new information becomes available, FactCheck.lk will revisit the assessment.
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