Sri Lanka could achieve the economic policy goals it aspires without needing to impose ‘haircuts’ on capital or domestic creditors, if the government can act soon and carry out the restructuring effort early.
Prof. Udara Peiris
The latest policy note by the Sri Lanka Economic Policy Group of Verite Research pointed out that it would be adequate to simply re-profile Sri Lanka’s domestic debt, which is to move repayments further into the future.
An analysis by Prof. Udara Peiris, Oberlin College, USA, showed four ways Sri Lanka would benefit, if the government were to restructure its domestic debt.
The first benefit is that the exercise will provide a quicker path to debt sustainability and economic recovery. According to Prof. Peiris, it is likely that the best debt restructuring package that the country can obtain from its external creditors will still leave Sri Lanka with severe problems of financial insolvency and debt sustainability.
Assuming that Sri Lanka manages to negotiate a haircut on International Sovereign Bonds (ISB)/Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDB) of 50 percent and a 25 percent haircut on multilateral/bilateral loans, the ratio of debt to GDP is still projected to rise to 136 percent by 2032.
“However, if the maturity of domestic treasury bonds were simultaneously extended by 10 years, the ratio of debt to GDP would rise to just 101 percent in the next 10 years,” said Prof. Peiris.
Embarking on the restructuring effort at the earliest would also provide a foundation for recovering macro-stability, he pointed out.
The government’s debts are so large relative to the size of the national economy that the Central Bank is unable to tame very high inflation purely through monetary policy, the policy note said.
While continuing the high cost of rolling over the government’s domestic debt would perpetuate the problem, the interconnectedness of fiscal solvency and inflation makes monetary policy less effective, even with high interest rates that have a negative impact on investment and growth, it added.
“Domestic debt restructuring will provide a foundation for resetting these negative dynamics and achieving conditions conducive to economic growth, with reduced interest rates and reduced inflation,” Prof. Peiris said.
The policy note also pointed out that the present path of quietly restructuring domestic debt through high inflation disproportionately hurts Sri Lanka’s wage-dependent working population and increases poverty.
Reducing domestic debt through explicit restructuring allows the costs to be targeted progressively to those sectors of the economy that are most equipped to bear the burden of debt reduction, opined Prof. Pieris.
Lastly, he pointed out that speeding up the restructuring effort reduces the risk of repeating the present debt crisis in the medium term.
While it is not unusual for countries that enter into insolvency and debt restructuring to fall back repeatedly into the same set of problems, the main reasons are poor governance, over-optimistic fiscal targets and shallowness of the debt restructure. Currently Sri Lanka faces high risks in all three areas.
Prof. Peiris stated that if interest rates remain at current levels and the government’s highly ambitious targets for increasing revenue are not fully met, the country faces the prospect of a relapse into another debt sustainability crisis in the medium term.
“An early domestic debt restructure can mitigate that risk – even though it cannot compensate for the continuing risks of poor governance,” he said.
On April 12, 2022, the Sri Lankan government announced a standstill on debt servicing to external creditors.
Domestic debt was not subject to this standstill. Although the real value of those domestic debts already has been considerably eroded by inflation, the cost to the government of rolling over maturing domestic debt remains very high. It is currently paying around 30 percent annually for new loans.
Mizaru Tuesday, 25 October 2022 07:25 AM
Will have to go for a bald haircut and just a trim. Replace the finance minister and the two state minister. They do no seem to know simple arithmetic. Sri Lanka needs people who can taken vector calculus and understand the theory of relativity.
Sunil Tuesday, 25 October 2022 09:06 AM
DM, please don't publish opinions of economists without proper validation as their opinions can influence generate wrong actions and hurt local creditors. It is the hard earned money of Sri Lankans which form domestic debt in any currency and this has to be protected by the government at any cost.
Mokada methana hore Tuesday, 25 October 2022 07:26 PM
Better DM publish various other economist talk. He is probably unbiased compared to Central Bank Governor nonsense. This one talks up for government case without identifying about effect on public by way of the major domestic debt holder the EPF. However, better to know what's happening with economist analyzing our situation, even I disagree with this ones for fear of the effect of a cut on my EPF holding. So, then people who care about their EPF can rise up against any attempts to cut domestic debt bought by EPF.
Fairness for our citizen everywhere Tuesday, 25 October 2022 03:32 PM
Ridiculousness, Prof. Udara Peiris, can take a haircut, but I don't want any such on my EPF, which invested in government rupee bonds. In future EPF should avoid anything to do with investing in Sri Lanka Central Bank bonds, or any other government bonds. This scam of haircut will be worse than the previous bond scam.
Jewaka Palankanda Tuesday, 25 October 2022 05:29 PM
Investors are looking for a stable, properly elected government run by an educated and a lawful group (without any court cases). Until no-one will come to Sl and will continue with that position. Conduct an election very soon and show that the cabinet has educated, properly elected people.
Mokada methana hore Tuesday, 25 October 2022 07:20 PM
As inflation creeps up, the domestic debt holders going through cut anyway. Why cause more harm to locals who suffer enough with inflation, with the suggestion to cut size of loans because government has the power to do it. It can be excuse to do it again and again in coming years. This Prof. Udara Peiris obviously has not domestic debt exposed assets like EPF holding otherwise he would not speak callously about 'hair cuts'. Maybe DM staff also have EPF holding, so better realise what this idiot's suggestions could mean to their retirement.
Add commentComments will be edited (grammar, spelling and slang) and authorized at the discretion of Daily Mirror online. The website also has the right not to publish selected comments.
Sri Lanka boasts of a 2500 year old Buddhist culture. This culture also inclu
Abortion is illegal in Sri Lanka unless the life of the mother is at risk. Re
Recently, the “Country Strategic Plan (CSP) for Sri Lanka” was approved b
02 Jun 2023 - 18 - 1731
02 Jun 2023 - 0 - 174
02 Jun 2023 - 0 - 82
02 Jun 2023 - 6 - 1035
Name - Reply Comment