25 May 2020 12:00 am
Researchers at Singapore University of Technology and Design have developed a complex model predicting the exact date the pandemic will end in the US, UK, and other countries around the world.(DM)
The coronavirus pandemic in the United States could be over as early as mid-November, new modeling has shown.
Researchers at Singapore University of Technology and Design have created a complex model predicting the exact date the pandemic will end in the US, UK, and other countries around the world.
According to the data, the US is on track to be coronavirus-free by November 11, while the UK could see an earlier end date of September 30.
The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time while tracking the actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country.
However, researchers noted the predictions by nature are likely to be uncertain due to the complexity of the virus as well as other factors including the restrictions and testing protocols in place in a country. The study also found predictive monitoring in early May showed the US - and second worst-hit country Brazil - could ‘still suffer’ for the remainder of the year if current measures remain in place and without the development of a vaccine.
For Italy, which once led the world in confirmed coronavirus cases, the modelling showed it was predicted to recover by October 24, as of May 8.
However, scientists note the predictions are only estimates and subject to change depending on various factors. As of Saturday, there are 1,600,937 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the US and 95,979 deaths. It comes as all 50 states have begun gradually reopening and easing restrictions following months of lock-down.
Earlier this month, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci warned another wave of the virus was ‘inevitable’.
Dr Fauci said reopening cities and states too quickly could trigger an outbreak that would get out of control and turn the clock back on efforts to fight the coronavirus.
US, (Daily Mail),
24 May 2020