17 August 2016 12:00 am
AFP - Egypt hopes a $12-billion financing deal with the IMF will usher in an economic turnaround but real progress hinges on a tough reform package avoided for decades to stave off unrest.
The financing over three years -- deemed an endorsement to attract more foreign aid -- would go together with a currency devaluation and streamlining of Egypt’s bloated subsidy system.
But experts warn that the loan alone would serve as little more than an “aspirin” and a stopgap for a deep-rooted economic malaise.
In a country where many rely on state subsidised bread and imports for basic foodstuffs such as wheat, inflation has already risen at a time of low foreign currency reserves and a thriving black market exchange.
More than five years after its 2011 uprising -- partly fuelled by economic disparities -- that swept away veteran strongman Hosni Mubarak, the country is still reeling from the fallout.
The uprising unleashed years of tumult that culminated with the military overthrow of Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and a jihadist insurgency that has driven away tourists.
Since Morsi’s overthrow, Arab states of the Gulf which opposed his Islamist movement have showered Egypt with over $20 billion in aid and investments, but that has proved to be a short-acting salve.
The dire state of the economy, according to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, makes the long deferred economic reforms inevitable.
“All the hard decisions that many over the years were scared to take, I will not hesitate for a second to take them,” he said in speech on Saturday, days after Egypt signed the preliminary deal with the IMF.
The government has proposed a reform package to narrow the budget deficit -- about 13 percent of GDP -- that includes cuts to power subsidies and a value added tax to raise revenue.
Subsidies account for 7.9 percent of total government expenditure, according to the finance ministry.
Reforms are also planned to adopt a “flexible policy” for the Egyptian pound.
With dwindling foreign reserves, the government has been propping up the currency at 8.88 pounds to the dollar, well below the black market price, while imposing capital controls.
Finance Minister Amr al-Garhy has said the country faces a funding gap of $21 billion over the next three years, and the money would be raised from regional loans and international bonds.
Experts say the IMF loan is essential to bolster foreign currency reserves, which have dwindled to $15.5 billion.
But this will not suffice on its own and may further aggravate the plight of the lower and middle classes.
The financing “is a short-term solution, but in the long term the economy is in bad shape and the deficit is dangerous”, said Ahmed Kamaly, an economics professor at the American University of Cairo. “The loan will be like an aspirin.
“There is no reform package in the real sense of the term, with specific goals... It’s a raft of measures to stabilise the economy and exchange debts for other debts,” he said.
The falling reserves prompted the government to hasten the IMF negotiations, and Egypt will owe $4.4 billion in interest on foreign loans by July 2017, according to a study by the investment bank Prime Holding.