Sri Lanka’s electricity sector will experience cost overruns, load shedding and unplanned power procurement in the coming few years also due to shortcomings in implementing the country’s Least Cost Long-term Generation Expansion Plan (LCLTGEP). According to Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL), the country’s electricity sector regulator, Sri Lanka experienced these issues in the past few years due to the same reasons and is expected to face similar issues in the next few years.
According to PUCSL’s latest report titled ‘Electricity Supply 2020 and Beyond: Challenges and Recommendation,’no generation plan that had been considered so far has foreseen the present situation. Thus, the actual outcome has been way different from what was conceived in the past plans. “Uncertainty associated with base demand, the forecast is another noticeable feature, particularly since the 2011 plan.
However, CEB has identified this as a problem and is trying to improve the accuracy of base demand forecast by adopting new forecasting tools.
Despite this, the electricity demand is expected to be more stochastic in nature all over the world in the long run,” the report says.
The report also reveals how due unforeseen power procurement and change of power mix have resulted the increase in the average unit cost of electricity due to not building the planned power plants as per the timeline. In 2016, actual power purchases from oil-based plants have increased by 6 times than planned for the year.