China releases huge coronavirus study amid hints of outbreak peaking

The largest study of the coronavirus in China so far has concluded that elderly patients and people with pre-existing health conditions are most at risk of dying from Covid-19, as a leading expert predicted that the outbreak was at or near its peak.  

Most cases of the disease are mild, while the overall death rate is 2.3 per cent, according the study by China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).  

The research looked at more than 70,000 Covid-19 cases, including confirmed, suspected and asymptomatic cases, as of February 11.  

In the last 24-hour interval, authorities reported 1,886 new cases and 98 deaths on Tuesday, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,868. Both the number of new infections and deaths had dropped slightly from the past few days.   

A renowned epidemiologist, Zhong Nanshan, said he expected the outbreak to peak by middle to late February, later than initially estimated, according to Southern Metropolis Daily.  
Zhong said he expected the situation to be “stable” by the end of April.   

The World Health Organization (WHO) had said Monday the number of new coronavirus infections in China appeared to be declining, though it was too early to tell if the reported decline would continue.  

The CDC study put the overall death rate from the virus at 2.3 per cent, with the age group most at risk being elderly people. The death rate was 14.8 per cent for people above 80 years old, while for those aged 10 to 39, the average death rate was 0.2 per cent.  
Beijing (dpa), 18 Feb, 2020