The Government Medical Officers' Association (GMOA) today said that based on the experience from Hubei, China, “It can be technically assumed that at present, 550 infected individuals are circulating within the population.”
Issuing a situational report, they said 101 cases were confirmed by today (25) while 32 of them were among those who arrived from abroad and sent to quarantine directly and 69 from the community.
The GMOA said an estimated 550 possible patients would have had a total of 19, 000 contacts.
“Nineteen Thousand of our population may have been exposed to this disease condition, and they are now under the observation of Medical, Military and Administrative structures,” the report said.
If movements freely take place, without social distancing, one individual can infect 500 others within 30 days. Within 50 per cent social distancing, one individual can infect 15 others. By 70 per cent social distancing, the ability to infect others is 2.5 per one infected person within 30 days, the situation report added.
The report added: “Considering Western nations that have been unsuccessful in carrying out social distancing, it can be assumed that between the period of 25.03.2020 and 07.04. 2020, if social distancing is not carried out, the numbers will face a rapid increase. Thus if the citizens of Sri Lanka follow through with the health advice that is given, we can assume that there will be a favorable outcome in the subsequent two weeks.”(Chaturanga Samarawickrama)