Last month Prime Ministers of Iran and Iraq announced with great pride the defeat of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. In a span of three years ISIL left a trail of bloodshed, devastation and a fragile region prime for more instability and chaos to come. Despite the defeat of ISIL in 2017 it may not be a critical year in global political history.
Yet for all who experienced and lived in 2017, political developments of this year may act as a precursor to an infinity war yet to come. When it will take place is up in the air what is absolutely clear is Iran may have to bear the brunt of the onslaught.
Donald Trump
This analysis does not stem from a point of view of Iranian victimhood or a narrative that puts Iran on a moral high ground, instead it is located in a series of developments that took place in 2017 which is clearly setting into motion an array of strategic calibrations from a multitude of nations from United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia to Iran which clearly signals an impeding conflict.
Last Week, on December 14, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley took to the stage with a massive picture of a missile casing, that was retrieved from debris of a projectiles that were intercepted over 
Saudi Arabia targeting King Khalid airport, allegedly fired by Houti rebels in Yemen. She started the press conference by saying ‘It is really important that you be here today, because we have a story to tell, and the story is a very important one. And it is not just important for the United States, it is important for the entire international community.’
The United States has mastered statecraft by manoeuvres, they had created global bogeymen and convinced many other nations to follow them in punishing such bogeymen. While there are debates about whether America was a hegemony, its narratives backed by hard power resources and spread through soft power circuits were convincing and made a great impact in a way US projected and realized its power globally.
"The US has mastered statecraft by manoeuvres, they had created global bogeymen and convinced many other nations to follow them in punishing such bogeymen"
Ambassador Haley’s argument was that Iran remains the most potent threat to the Middle East and global security. The most powerful line in her press briefing was, ‘The fight against Iranian aggression is the world’s fight’. The Iranians immediately responded by arguing that the United States was using the missile story to deflect attention and backlash from Donald Trump administration’s decision to declare and accept Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The statement Haley’s made seems to be a build-up to something much bigger in time to come.
Four key developments of 2017 need to be revisited and analysed in a coherent context. Firstly, Donald Trump’s inaugural visit to a foreign country as President of the United States was to Saudi Arabia. In his visit in front of 50 leaders of Arab States he said ‘all nations of conscience must work together to isolate Iran’. The American administration followed Trump’s rhetoric with more tangible forms of challenging Iran, especially flooding Saudi Arabia with sophisticated arms sales to be used in the war against Iranian backed Houtis in Yemen. As the year comes closer to an end Yemen conflict has been listed the worst humanitarian crisis of 2017 by the United Nations.
Secondly, the Saudi-Qatari diplomatic rift coming to its seventh month, seems to be more than a diplomatic crisis between two Arab nations. It is a clear strategic move by the Saudi regime to prevent Iran establishing and consolidating any working relationship with Arab nations, especially the ones that are prosperous and moderate.
The story that hit international headlines last week was that of the Trump administration’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Trump did pledge that the American embassy would be moved to Jerusalem, which may not occur sometime soon. While this unprecedented move does seriously jeopardizes the Palestinian peace deal which has been the focus of the debate among analysts and scholars.
Nikki Haley
"Saudi Arabia sees Iran as its clearest adversary in regional dominance as it is actively engaged in countering Iran utilizing all possible means. Less has been discussed about the new cooling of relations between Saudi and Israel"
The Jerusalem gambit seems much more than what analysts argue, it seems a more calculated strategic move by Trump to appease Israel into following the United States or helping it to suppress Iran. Thus America’s Jerusalem move is more about Iran than Palestine which is the third development that adds up to the strategic containment and possible offensive preparations that seem to be targeting Iran.
This column did focus a few weeks back on the new Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and his future ambitions as the first Third Generation Saudi King. While it is very clear that Saudi Arabia sees Iran as its clearest adversary in regional dominance as it is actively engaged in countering Iran utilizing all possible means. Less has been discussed about the new cooling of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Israeli’s have already invited the Mohammed Bin Salem to visit Israel, this is unprecedented given the bitter Israeli Arab rivalries.
If taken in isolation all these four developments do have relevant geo-political contexts but analysing them in a continuum or putting them into a matrix and to observe correlations one can argue that there 
is a momentum to contain or even harass Iran. In response, unlike Iraq in the aftermath of the Kuwaiti invasion or 9/11, Iran seems to have done its homework and is displaying prowess to counter such moves.
Despite this coordinated efforts of containment, Iran strategically and intellectually comprehends how the united States engage in foreign interventions politically and militarily. Iran remains one of the few countries that has successfully for decades managed to mitigate both American and Israeli efforts to undermine its regimes through various espionage campaigns. Iran has even managed to out-manoeuvre American influence in battle theatres in Syria and negate Israeli threats by purchasing sophisticated air defence systems
from Russia.
Iran seems to have extensively done its homework on success of China and Russia where both countries have invested significantly in developing sophisticated arsenal of long to medium and hypersonic missile systems and simultaneously mastering missile defence. Writing in a recent op-ed piece on New York Times, Iranian Minister of foreign affairs Javed Zarif claims, ‘We have honed missiles as an effective means of deterrence. And our conscious decision to focus on precision rather than range has afforded us the capability to strike back with pinpoint accuracy.’
Any war with Iran led by a United States alliance may lead to devastations in global scale, not just in the context of destruction and human deaths it will tear up regional groupings, split the Islamic world and create energy crises that will have far reaching consequences on global stability and growth.
Mohammed bin Salman
"The story that hit world headlines last week was that of the Trump administration’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Trump did pledge that the American embassy would be moved to Jerusalem"
Yet by 2018 Trump administration will be a year into power, the domestic political chaos and fractitude that is gripping the United States seems yet to have slowed or mitigated. Trump administration will seek a foreign intervention that may create a massive distraction at home, while American public is dealing with the repercussions of the global war terror, the warlike nature in the American psyche still remains. The column is not attempting to pass judgment it is merely trying to explore a possibility of another war that may lead to the total dismantling of the current global order.
While there is no serious conversation about this coming war in Sri Lanka, what we should understand is that Iran , Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey and Israel, will start funding and creating projects, forums even in countries like Sri Lanka to advance their geo-political interests and solidify the ideologies that are driving such pursuits.
What comes after ISIL will not be a war terror, war on terrorism cannot define or create new global architectures, a regional war with a global reach has that potential. Currently Sri Lanka’s main foreign policy challenge has been dealing with China, India and the United States, yet some of our internal political challenges seem to be stemming from battles for dominance in the Islamic world.
The writer is the Director, Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS)
