Drought to lead local paddy cultivation towards ‘worst case scenario’

A labourer tries to open a door at a storeroom, as he carries sacks of rice near a main market in Colombo. (Reuters photo)

By Shabiya Ali Ahlam
Local representatives of the World Food Program (WFP) this week issued a fresh warning to relevant stakeholders, pointing out Sri Lanka’s paddy cultivation is heading towards a ‘worst case scenario’ due to the ongoing drought and the absence of a strategic medium to long-term plan to cope with the situation. 
The WFP’s ‘Initial Rapid Assessment on Drought in Sri Lanka 2016/2017’ report showed that the total forecasted production for this year remains  ‘far’ below compared with the last 10 years’ average annual rice production.
“If the Yala 2017 is also going to be affected, the total production will be significantly lower and a deficit of 1.1 million metric tonnes is expected,” WFP Training and Knowledge Management Expert Indu Abeyratne told a seminar in Colombo, facilitated by Asia Pacific Alliance for Disaster Management (APAD) Sri Lanka.  Last year saw the second highest rice production since 2005 standing at 3.01 million metric tonnes, while the highest production of 3. 17 million metric tonnes was recorded in 2013.
It was shared that while the total extent cultivated in Maha 2016/2017 would experience a significant yield loss, only 50 percent of the potential irrigable paddy lands would be cultivated in Yala 2017. 

In an effort to minimize the impact of the expected failure of the Maha 2016/2017 season, Abeyratne stressed that remedial actions should be taken to prioritize the production of required seed paddy for the Yala season.
He further added that wet-zone arable paddy lands should be cultivated during the Yala season in order to offset the water deficit in dry irrigated areas.
Meanwhile, WFP recommended ‘close’ monitoring of food security conditions in areas hit by the drought.
The agency also proposed to lift the import barriers on rice if the rice prices in the market went out
of control.  
In the long-term, the government was urged to explore avenues of promoting organic farming and ‘in-situ’ domestic crop production systems. Asserted was also the need for establishing risk transfer mechanisms such as crop insurance programmes. 
Taking into account the global model forecasts and the prevailing weak La Nina conditions, it was highlighted that rainfall was likely to be ‘normal’ 
in Sri Lanka.
However, it was pointed out that even if the island received average rains till end February 2017, it was unlikely that the current drought situation would improve till end March.