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A case for International Relations education in Sri Lanka

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16 July 2018 12:02 am - 0     - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

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This article attempts to use the case of American geo political leadership and its current role in both as the disrupt and creator of global conditions, the focus is on international cooperation through international groupings. The case is made highlighting the emerging complex global relations as a result and the need to create a Sri Lankan citizenry through a robust International Relations education strategy preparing future generations to face and manage global disruptions.
To highlight the importance of such education, two mini case studies of political groupings created during the Cold war by the United States and their current plight are discussed. The focus is on North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) which is an international alliance led by the United States and secondly the Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC) a biennial military exercise in the Pacific Ocean conceived by the United States.


Trump on NATO

NATO is a more robust institutional arrangement that is a hard power aggregator and has been the key proponent of strategic bulwark against the Soviet led communist bloc. On the contrary RIMPAC has evolved from being a strategic military exercise to be a soft power projection mechanism of the United States.
The importance of the analysis on how the current President of the United States is on a warpath with its traditional allies in NATO while RIMPAC has attracted significant support and enthusiasm from the same administration. Many American and European analysts use a common concept to explain Trump administration’s foreign and security policy, as ‘Incoherence’, they use the term ‘incoherent foreign policy’ and ‘strategic incoherence’.
‘Strategic incoherence’ seems to be the ideal term to explain our domestic political alignments and constellations, yet the changes in global geo political alliances do have significant impact on countries like Sri Lanka which is already subjected to significant pressure as a result of regional and global great power rivalries.

 

"NATO is a more robust institutional arrangement that is a hard power aggregator and has been the key proponent of strategic bulwark against the Soviet led communist bloc"


Reading through security related documents, reports analysis coming from the Trump administration, there are some consistencies, which are mainly directed at questions of how to contain, and at the same time work with China. There seem to be idiosyncrasies on dealing with Russia. 
Dealing with Russia has divided consensus in Washington at many layers from academic, think tanks, politicians in both democratic and republican parties and the emerging conservative and socialist groups who are gaining influence in the American political system. 
The most telling of these is Trump’s tweets and one liners in his campaign speeches on NATO, a few weeks back at a political rally in North Dakota late last month, President Trump said “Sometimes our worst enemies are our so-called friends and allies.” This was unprecedented coming from a US president who was about to attend a meeting of NATO leaders. 

 

"Many American European analysts use a common concept to explain Trump administration’s foreign and security policy, "


Trump, even prior to his election was very keen that NATO partners had to commit at least a 2% of their respective GDPs as a financial commitment to the alliance. He was critical that the European partners were not standing by their promise and thus free-riding while America did the heavy lifting. 
Here is a great lesson for any student of geo politics and strategy on the downside of applying a financial benchmark to alliances. Though the allies may have not managed to make the financial commitment they continue to contribute to NATO missions and support the United States in many of its security roles across the globe. 
The best example is France, though it is not meeting the 2% of the French GDP contribution to NATO it is committing troops and military assets into many theatres that do have significant strategic interests for the United States from the Middle East to North Africa, many European military still maintain many weapons platforms that are of American make and are inter-operable giving the United States military industrial complex a significant staying power and providing the US military of a strategic advantage over Russia.


Russia’s moment

Trump’s ambiguity on Russia seems to be one of the greatest undermining factors for the longevity of the alliance. As many are aware of words of first Chief of Staff under Winston Churchill who later served as NATO secretary-general, Hastings Ismay. He proclaimed that the NATO was setup “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” Though it is not the official motto of the alliance, Ismay’s conceptualization serves as the unofficial driving thread of NATO since its inception. 
Trump seems to be undermining this long term working principle when he is unleashing a barrage of verbal hits on the alliance, making his allies feel extremely uncomfortable while he is reluctant to undermine Putin, thus the Americans are fearing that Trump has given space for Putin to be seen as an equal player when it came to the strategic equilibrium. 

 

"Trump, prior to his election was keen that NATO partners had to commit 2% of their respective GDPs as a financial commitment to the alliance"


NATO allies are worried of the continual American draw down from strategic European spaces.  There are no American Corps forward bases in Europe no logistical support services, Britain has pulled out its troops from Germany, Germany has downsized its military strength significantly since cold war from nearly ten heavy divisions to two at the moment. 
Russia meanwhile has managed to build a sphere of influence around its borders not only with its acquisitions from Ukraine, it has significant support from countries like Hungary and Poland. This article is not attempting to say what Russia is down as wrong but Russia has managed to assert itself in a global stage to certain extent thanks to the incoherence of strategic decision making in the United States. 
Russian sales of the sophisticated S 400 anti-air missile systems to Turkey has made further complications within the NATO alliance, where the alliance purchases weapons systems that are inter-operable and are not of Russian origin. Thus American strategy of incoherence is met with a Russian strategy of coherence and resilience. 


RIMPAC’s relevance 

The RIMPAC exercise which was originally an attempt to thwart Society influence in the Pacific theatre was originally launched by the United States in 1971 with Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK. Today it has expanded into the world’s largest multilateral military maritime exercise which is held for the 26th year this year and is featuring 26 nations and about quarter million troops from all contributing nations. The Americans have uninvited China this year based on ongoing tensions and have kept the Russians out since 2014. 

 

"RIMPAC exercise which was originally an attempt to thwart Society influence in the Pacific theatre"


Trump Administration is pouring in troops, assets and seems to have no problems in funding this exercise and with the voracious appetite for military hardware the Asian states seem to have no problems in modernizing their military thus are spending lavishly to that end. While this exercise is a clear message to China about the United States ability to garner the support and at the same time able to lead Asian nations it seems to be entering a phase for a competition for Asia’s leadership. 
Nations that are participating in RIMPAC such as Malaysia,Philippines and Indonesia all have clearly managed to develop foreign policies that do not necessarily align with the United States or but have been smart enough to create foreign policies that enable them to work with both United States and China. 


Towards a globally aware Sri Lanka

From a Sri Lankan perspective observing how United States is dealing with Russia, China and America’s increasing commitments in Asia and the fact that all these are taking place in the context of an ‘incoherent strategic compulsion’ it is challenging countries like ours to create foreign relations that can manoeuvre in such complex geo political arrangements. 
American global engagement with Donald Trump is starting to create ruptures and disruptions in a global order that was manageable, the ripple effects may take some time to hit us but we should not live and hope to pretend they will not come to our shores, thus Sri Lanka needs a set of policy makers, institutions and academics that have to understand to respond to these shifts and help the country to navigate through the fall out. 

 

"Russian sales of sophisticated S 400 anti-air missile systems to Turkey made complications within NATO alliance"


International relations education needs to streamline soon into our school systems and University systems should have more departments for study and research of global politics. 
Intelligence community, state intelligence analysts need to be brought up to speed of Global transformations, power shifts and with updated tools of analysis our ability to face the future depends on the nurturing of this human capital.


The author is the Director, Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS)


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