Part 1: The Problem: Climate Catastrophe

The global carbon dioxide emissions rate will be increased by 132% by 2050 from 1990 level if human civilization continues its “business-as-usual” development model. Accordingly, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will be increased to 750 ppm.  The global average temperature is likely to increase by 5.5 degrees Centigrade and could rise by as much as 7 degrees above pre-industrial values by the end of the century. With a temperature increase of 6 degrees or above, most of the tropics, sub-tropics and even lower mid-latitudes will be too hot to be inhabitable due to excessive heat and drought. Sea level rise will be sufficiently rapid that coastal cities across the world will be largely abandoned. Most sea life will be gone. The Arctic region temperatures will raise much higher than average: up to 20 degrees - meaning the entire Arctic will be ice-free all year round. Human population will be drastically reduced and human refuges will be confined to highland areas and the Polar Regions. Perhaps 90% of species will become extinct, rivaling the worst mass extinctions in the Earth’s 4.5 billion-year history. Life on earth may end with apocalyptic storms, flash floods, hydrogen sulphide gas and methane fireballs racing across the globe with the power of atomic bombs; in the long run no human being will survive on earth and only fungi will survive.

To put it simply, “business-as-usual” will have but one result – the end of human civilization on earth by 2100!

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific intergovernmental body tasked to evaluate the risk of climate change caused by human activity. The panel was established in 1988 by the the United Nations. The IPCC using computer models has come up with six major scenarios to represent six possible major trends to get an idea of the future of humankind by 2100. 

• The A1 scenarios are representing rapid economic growth, a global population reaching 9 billion in 2050 and then declining gradually, quick spread of new and efficient technologies, and income & way of life coming together between regions. The subsets of A1 are: A1FI - An emphasis on fossil-fuels; A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources; A1T - Emphasis on non-fossil energy sources.
  
• The A2 scenario is: regionally oriented economic development, continuously increasing population, slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income.
  
• The B1 scenario is: rapid economic growth towards a service and information economy, population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining, an integrated world, introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies.
  
• The B2 scenario is: intermediate levels of economic development, continuously increasing population at a slower rate, local solutions to economic, social and environmental stability, less rapid and more fragmented technological change, ecologically friendly divided world.
  

My interpretation of these six scenarios is:

A1FI- Developing world reaching the level of the developed world with fossil fuels (fossil fuel based socialism)

A2- Business as Usual (BAU)

A1B- Developing world reaching the level of the developed world with an energy mix (energy mix based socialism)

B2- Middle path

A1T- Green socialist development

B1- Green capitalist development

 Please note that this is not the interpretation of IPCC but of the writer of this article. The A1FI (fossil fuel based socialism) scenario will reach the 6 degrees and above temperature increase before 2040. The A2 (business as usual) scenario will reachthe apocalyptic levels by 2060 and the A1B (energy mix based socialism) scenario by 2100.  

The carbon dioxide emissions rate of the other three scenarios B2 (middle path), A1T (Green socialism), and B1 (Green capitalism) is much better and less damaging.  However, emissions will increase above 50% by 2050 from the 1990 level.  Accordingly atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will increase to 600 ppm. The global average temperature increase above pre-industrial levels in all three scenarios would be in the range of 4 degrees Centigrade. What will happen to humankind if one of these three better scenarios occurs?

An increase in global temperature increase between four to five degrees will result in the following: ice sheets have vanished from both poles; rainforests have burnt up and turned to desert; rising seas are scouring deep into continental interiors. One may be tempted to shift populations from dry areas to the newly thawed regions of the far north, in Canada and Siberia. Even here, though, summers may be too hot for crops to be grown away from the coasts. Once a 4 degree increase is reached, the chance of avoiding five degrees of global warming is negligible as trapped methane from the sea bed releases and accelerates global warming. With an increase of between five and six degrees of warming, the ice will be gone from both poles; humans will migrate in search of food and try vainly to live like animals off the land.

All possible scenarios of the IPCC clearly indicate that there is no hope for survival. It is important to note here that the IPCC estimates are considered the most conservative in terms of climate impacts. Observed data as published by scientists from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), show that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is diminishing at a rate much faster than predicted by any of the IPCC models. The actual carbon dioxide concentrations during the last 10 years increased much faster than forecasted by the IPCC’s worst case A1FI (fossil fuel based developed world).

Even a 2 to 4 degrees increase will be unacceptable. Beyond two degrees, preventing mass starvation will be a challenge. First millions, then billions, of people will face an increasingly tougher battle to survive.  If global temperatures are more than three degrees higher than now, China's agricultural production will crash. The Indian subcontinent will be choked in dust. The choice for the people will be between starving in situ and moving. With a 3 to 4 degrees temperature increase global food production is under threat as key breadbaskets in Europe, Asia and the United States suffer drought and heat waves outstrip the tolerance of crops. Farming and food production will tip into irreversible decline. Salt water will creep up the stricken rivers, poisoning ground water. Higher temperatures mean greater evaporation, further drying out vegetation and soils and causing huge losses from reservoirs. The abandonment of the Mediterranean will send even more people north to overcrowded refuges in the Baltic, Scandinavia and the British Isles. In state capitals, heat is likely to kill between 8,000 and 15,000 (mainly elderly people) each year. Australia will be a death trap and the US will have problems of its own. As the mountains lose their snow, so cities and farms in the west will lose their water and dried-out forests and grasslands will perish at the first spark.

Mark Lynas the author of 'Our Future on a Hotter Planet' says “A three-degree increase in global temperature would throw the carbon cycle into reverse. As with the Amazon collapse and the carbon-cycle feedback (vegetation and soils start to release instead of absorb carbon dioxide) in the three-degree world. So much carbon pours into the atmosphere that it pumps up atmospheric concentrations by 250 parts per million by 2100, boosting global warming by another 1.5 degrees. In other words, carbon-cycle feedbacks could tip the planet into runaway global warming. If we reach three degrees, therefore, that leads inexorably to four degrees, which leads inexorably to five… ". Chance of avoiding further global warming is poor if the rise reaches two degrees and triggers carbon-cycle feedbacks from soils and plants.

The IPCC and scientists worldwide claim that if the global average temperature increase above 2 degrees the fate of the human civilization may be beyond the control of human beings.

Time is running out. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (379 ppm) in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. This year CO2 concentration has increase to 389.42 ppm. 11 of the last 13 years are the warmest ever recorded. Average global temperatures are now some 0.75 °C warmer than they were 100 years ago. The sea level has increased by 10 cm. Frequency and impact of forest fires, hurricanes, floods, salt water intrusions, and droughts is increasing at a tremendous rate. The gravity of the situation should be understood not only by scientists but by all human beings living on earth including politicians and policy makers.

What is most important to note, is that all the possible scenarios predicted by IPCC points towards a catastrophe. Something extraordinary should happen to avoid it. If we are to realize the gravity of the situation we should be concerned about keeping the risks of dangerous climate change to a minimum; we should be aware of this worst-case outcome. If a particular country is ignoring this fact and engaging in a tug of war with other nations without attending to the matter, it is nothing else but mental suicide.